Our with @zuchowskidavid.bsky.social VoxEU column on migration & voting dropped the same day Orbán lost Hungary election. Exposure to Ukrainian migrants in Poland reduces far-right support. Voters reject anti-immigration rhetoric when they know the people being scapegoated.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Дякую!
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For the next ~2.5 weeks I’m in Sweden. If you’re around and want to grab coffee, let me know.
If you’d like to give me a birthday gift - donate to Ukrainian air defense. It’s literally why I’m here to celebrate. Link: send.monobank.ua/jar/9gkXFCsATp If it doesn’t work, Come Back Alive’s regular page works too savelife.in.ua/donate/#dona...
Today I turn 30. Despite Russia’s best efforts, I made it. Thread 🧵
My (awesome) colleagues and I discuss our paper on donations by Ukrainians to Come Back Alive, a large 🇺🇦 nonprofit providing direct aid to the armed forces.
tl;dr - civilian casualties cause donations.
Huge thanks to @olhazadorozhna.bsky.social and @tderyugina.bsky.social for making it happen!
1/ 🎙️A new episode of Policy Implications is out, and I’m grateful to @tderyugina.bsky.social for stepping in to host this conversation on charitable giving during wartime with Margaryta Klymak, @dariia.bsky.social, @andrewkosenko.bsky.social, and Kathryn Vasilaky.
🎧 Listen: tinyurl.com/4p9zk4r8
Yeah it’s hard to measure these things…
This is just those who have been within 1 km of a missile attack. Doesn’t include on the ground fighting + many missile attacks cannot be precisely geolocated, so this is a lower bound estimate.
So this number reflects what's measurable, not what's real. The true count is likely 10-15 m.
What's available for Ukraine: VIINA (Zhukov, Georgetown) - ~70k strike events but mostly geocoded to settlement centroids. A strike on Kharkiv = one dot at the centre, capturing ~3 km² of a 350 km² city.
Bellingcat fixes this for ~2,500 buildings but only verified civilian-harm cases.
Don't compare directly to Iran. The Economist's chart works because ISW + AEI analysts hand-geolocated each strike from videos and satellite imagery - feasible for hundreds of strikes over 3 weeks.
For 4 years across the largest country in Europe, that scale of OSINT isn't feasible.
For millions in the East and South, it has been a
routine of the past four years rather than a single night.
And this number is almost certainly an undercount. Here's why ⬇️
14% is not a small share, and 1 km is not a safe distance.
A blast 1 km away shakes your building, can break your windows and cover your kitchen floor in glass. One in seven Ukrainians has lived through that, at least once. Many more have been awoken from explosions, heard loud noises.
Repo: github.com/dariia-m/ukr...
Result: ~5.9 m people - about 14% of pre-war Ukraine - lived within ~1 km of at least one verifiably reported strike point between Feb 2022 and Apr 2026.
East > South > North > Centre > West.
I tried to recreate The Economist's recent chart - cumulative population within 1 km of reported strikes during the
Iran/Israel war - but for Ukraine, over 4 years of full-scale war.
Built it end-to-end with Claude (Opus 4.6). Code, data, methodology in repo below.
#RStats #UAView #EconSky
UPD: this workshop has been rescheduled for May 7th, so you can still register if you haven't already!
Details: bit.ly/3wBeY4S
Please share!
#AcademicSky #EconSky
This workshop is tomorrow, don't miss your chance to register!
#RStats #EconSky #AcademicSky
Now that Anthropic has made me a pet in Claude Code that sarcastically comments on all my actions, how can it even compete with other AI providers?
If you are not personally interested in attending, you can also sponsor participation of a student!
Register or sponsor a student by donating to support Ukraine!
Details: bit.ly/3wBeY4S
Please share!
#AcademicSky #EconSky