FT Exclusive: The number of Americans seeking Irish citizenship through ancestry jumped 63% last year, as the Trump administration’s harsh rhetoric and policies fuelled demand for ‘plan B’ passports. ft.trib.al/VLmOiJH

Dipiction of Mar-a-Lago with a steel and glass structure jutting out similar ot the one at the National Documentation Center Nazi Party Grounds in Nuremberg. A sign in fron that states it is "National Documentation Center, Mar-a-Lago" and a line of people out front to get into the museum.

I dunno I still think this is the way to go

Yeah, i know it hyperbole but that would have been a second holocaust and resulted in another world war war. I support prosecuting more facists (including the companies) than we did in 1945-1950 but not states that voted for him. Easy enough to prosecute & nationalize Palantir for its many crimes.

1) Fix the Courts
2) Prosecute *all* thieves, war criminals & facists
3) Get all the money back, pay restitution
4) Build a Documentation Centers out of former ICE facility & Mar-a-Lago
5) Tear the rest all down (then rebuild & renew institutions)

Near top of the agenda is a package of court reform with dozens of these from ethics to shadow docket. I don’t care about what you call prisoners i want your to be smart enough to know this is well within congress’ right. And do it.

Any reaction likely will make expanding the court popular.

I thinks it’s very odd that people continue to wave away the text generation machines have no memory and does not appreciate or value the words and yet they pretend it can make judgements.

The hand waving about “we’re all just probabilities and neurons” is going to be embarrassing in the future.

I want to know the break down of other. How many people correctly said Archaeopteryx? Also i am old cause i am generally shocked that Velociraptor doesn’t break 2%

Tell me something more political than “the economy”

It’s not that extraordinary there are tons and tons of evidence of people coming to a conclusion about politics and finding an explanation to fit said conclusion. There is massive amounts of research on this. Anyways i think this has run its course as your back to hyperbole.

Because they could be doing things the other way around. They could be deciding the economy is bad and then finding an explanation.

That is not what I or Will or anyone i have seen is suggesting. I don’t agree 💯 with Will but the prices explain everything crowd is claiming everything is incredibly simple when it’s not and we have a theory that explains it.

Side note I would say i would balance the government deficit right now though until private borrowing is a bit more … proven.

Promising balanced budgets and not delivering doesn’t do a ton but i get the point but just say i want a balanced busker they will never let me so here’s how we have to run it. Instead of promising anything

So fine pay off some debt at hight rates but it better be only to borrow as much as we should have (national HSR and free pre-K college level borrowing) when interests rates we like less than 4%

Please don’t balance the budget if interest rates come down! Government aren’t household budgets. Germany & Netherlands are not a model.

I put it very simply: you cannot expect someone to spend more effort reading something than you spent writing it.

A few years ago, that was a borderline impossible thing to ask. Now people are doing it constantly by thoughtlessly throwing globs of AI writing at their interlocutors.

Again read more carefully from the Pew survey “About seven-in-ten adults (71%) say they are very concerned about the cost of health care, while 66% say the same about the price of food and consumer goods. Nearly as many (62%) say they are very concerned about the cost of housing.”

Housing lowest

I am not conflating anything look at the question in that picture. I have analyzed the Michigan survey for years and know it very well. I think i have shown you that. Anyways i hope you understand the nuance brigade.

and 2) there isn’t a mechanism to make this prediction variable causal.

Morris models say the opposite actually — no Core PCE changes (services and durable goods) explain better then PCI that includes them. See it’s decent at predicting but 1) the data comes in around the same time as the survey in timeline so it’s not possible

Stop complicating things and run against this concentration camp program from the Republican Party and the corruption it enables.

5) Or frankly it has more to with interest rates affecting home prices than inflation and therefore the inflation above trend is a precisely tracked by the Fed to determine interest rates.

Core PCE specifically excludes food and energy that and does all the explaining in Morris model. So housing and healthcare yes, food and gas no.

That la not what they are saying they are saying they are fine but the economy is bad because of prices. It’s literally the opposite

4) My argument would be especially with the 1990s backtested model being so much further off … that prices matter more because of the fractured environment than they used to that the narrative of prices spreads faster and more than it actually affects.

3) Lastly and most importantly people are terrible at predicting future prices there’s an entire question about inflation sentiment in this survey where their expectations don’t match the trend line. So the argument would be they are bad at predicting prices but

2b) The critique isn’t news and media sentiment. It’s literally the fracturing of it. Which might make the case closer to “lived experience more important” But my guess is i take this to the 1970s you’ll find it’s fracturing make negativity stronger.

2) Mechanism, this is where saying prices are great predictors vs prices determine everything is a cortical point: it’s differs people that think the economy is bad for the same reasons. So at minimum it’s ppl affiliation + price. Which is like why “prices too high” is a great predictor.

1) The models count inflation in multiple ways. Which is fine for back of napkin but essentially your saying the people.

Prospect theory might back you up on losses matters more than gains, but three cost numbers and fewer income numbers make you wonder if there isn’t a better model.

Yes. I think Bernstein & Morris are right price compared to trend a important but there are three core issues with the models that mean no it’s unlikely brining prices back to trend will solve the issue and confounding variables. This because of model construction, mechanisms and theory.