28yrs ago today.

Top tier analysis on the evolving global order.

My thanks to the Frontline Club and guests.

Panel: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @kovrig.bsky.social, Olivia Cheung, and (chair) Robin Brant.

Credit to Micheál Martin. No place for divisive politics.

Lá Fhéile Pádraig Sona Daoibh.

1. Demand the maximum—do not ask but demand something that has never been yours.

2. Present ultimatums—and threaten.

3. Do not give one inch in negotiations because there will always be someone in the West that will offer you something.

- Kaja Kallas on Russian negotiation tactics.

“Tír gan teanga, tír gan anam”

"A country without a language, is a country without a soul”

As @president.ie Connolly assumed office today, great to see the Irish language placed at the heart of her seven year term — another step in Ireland's long journey of renewal.

Cook Islands tourism set for major lift with new seasonal direct flight This follows Air New Zealand's announcement of a new seasonal direct flight between Christchurch and Rarotonga from May to October 2026.

New AirNZ Christchurch–Cook Islands route set to deepen people-to-people ties at a moment when every opportunity for enhanced regional connectivity faces intense competition.

With Pacific aid set to fall by USD 200m — difficult to ignore the geopolitics around new links like this: shorturl.at/H9ml1

THE NAVIGATOR Welcome to the October edition of The Navigator. Alongside our usual roundup of regional developments, this month’s features examine the contrasting models of sovereignty shaping the Indo-Pacific’s ev...

The Navigator’s October issue — out now!

This month we examine:

• Australia–PNG’s Pukpuk Treaty — where shared identity is redefining defence
• IMF–World Bank & Global South autonomy

Stay ahead with our regional roundup.

Read here: 9dashline.substack.com/p/the-naviga...

Subscribe now!

Excellent panel at London’s Frontline Club on the rise of authoritarianism in Southeast Asia.

Insights from @neiloughlin.bsky.social on Cambodia, Paul Chambers with personal experience of Thailand’s lèse-majesté law, and @laujessie.bsky.social on the importance of the Milk Tea Alliance.

Thanks to @lauchinainstitute.bsky.social for bringing together two of the clearest thinkers on US–China relations at a pivotal moment.

Excellent programme of events for #ChinaWeek2025.

Psychologists will study this for years.

One interpretation: depicts deep need to purge guilt—dropping filth merely an attempt to transform shame into power. Fake glory (crown) rudimentary effort to mask fear of losing control. Pseudo-dominance is just weakness disguised. But we are all now weaker.

*IF* correct, then exposure to Chinese penetration no longer just a UK crisis—serious implications for EU / institutions and broader joint and collective security arrangements.

Indonesia President Prabowo takes up ‘sudden invitation’ to attend Gaza peace summit in Egypt Indonesia is believed to be the only Southeast Asian nation attending the summit on the Gaza war agreement, and one of the few attending countries that has not established diplomatic relations with Is...

"Prabowo has also instructed the Indonesian Armed Forces to prepare peacekeeping troops for possible deployment in the Gaza Strip, depending on the outcome of the peace summit in Egypt and an approval from the UN Security Council.."

www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/gaza-pe...

Little Green Drones ™

Fiji defies international pressure with Jerusalem embassy opening - ABC Pacific As Israel faces genocide allegations at the UN, Fiji opens its Jerusalem embassy, drawing both praise and backlash across the region.

Australia’s decision to formally recognise the State of Palestine stands in contrast to Fiji’s move to double down on its support for Israel (which saw Suva open an embassy in Jerusalem this week) underscoring the range of potential wedge issues now shaping key Pacific relations.

shorturl.at/BTsJJ

Putin providing the ideal (worrying) backdrop to @glandsbergis.bsky.social discussion with @gideonrachman.bsky.social on all things NATO, Ukraine and European security.

Listen here: open.spotify.com/episode/25uJ...

New episode 🎙️

In conjunction with the European Parliament in ASEAN

Stefania Benaglia joins @zsuzsettte.bsky.social and @richheydarian.bsky.social to discuss the recent SCO summit, focusing on India’s strategic role and evolving EU–ASEAN dynamics.

Listen here 🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/6FCy...

China pilots village surveillance in Solomon Islands, seeks stability Chinese police are piloting fingerprint and data collection to curb social unrest, officials and locals confirmed to Reuters.

In just 6 years the Solomon Islands has gone from key Taiwan ally to adopting China’s surveillance model including familiarising kids with surveillance drones, fingerprint and data collection.

Few states illustrate the speed of Beijing’s expanding reach more clearly.

www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...

Indonesia's president to revoke some politicians' privileges after protests The Indonesian president's announcement comes after days of protests across the country.

Framing some undoubtedly violent protest as potential “terrorism” and "treason" risks shifting ordinary citizens from modest criminals and/or political actors to existential threats.

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08...

Myanmar’s Civil War Is Tearing the Country Apart And Giving China and Russia a Front Row Seat. What's the Cost of Indifference?

It was a pleasure to speak to Hollie McKay for this piece @thecipherbrief.bsky.social on #Myanmar alongside the always stellar Derek Mitchell: www.thecipherbrief.com/myanmars-civ...

Once rare, now common.

The normalisation of state violence in civic spaces is not only reshaping how Europe manages dissent but is also reinforcing perceptions of democratic decline. Each episode makes it harder for Europeans to call out authoritarianism anywhere.

Last year in Hiroshima, I stumbled on the exact spot where the world’s first atomic bomb exploded—now a profoundly ordinary street and home to apartments, businesses and a car park.

In the wake of images from Gaza, an important reminder that recovery—though hard—is possible.

More than 100 people die of hunger in Gaza, including 80 children, say Palestinian officials Israel controls all supplies entering Gaza and has denied it is responsible for food shortages.

Future museums will see horrified visitors filing past carefully mounted copies of these reports:

news.sky.com/story/more-t...

Nothing like digesting Europe’s politics after a trip to Berlin’s leading photography space to remember everyone’s just performing — some just happen to have better lighting.

Brings to mind Omar El Akkad’s chilling book title: One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This.

Grateful to @chathamhouse.org and panellists for this evening’s discussion on how the UK can build influence on the Korean Peninsula at a critical moment for European and Indo-Pacific security.

Warm London evening offset by some cool-headed analysis.

Thanks to the #LSEFestival for hosting a fantastic discussion on the future of US-China relations with John Ikenberry, Rana Mitter, Peter Trubowitz and Nathalie Tocci.

Three Pacific nations in Trump's expanded travel ban list It's part of President Trump's crackdown on foreign nationals from countries that fail to meet "established benchmarks and requirements" for remaining in the US.

Adding Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu—with tiny populations—to the travel ban list is a unforced error. These are critical frontline Indo-Pacific states and says Washington sees you as a problem, not a key strategic partner.

Beijing 'wins' again without lifting a finger: www.rnz.co.nz/internationa...

The scramble to stand up VOA Farsi should be an urgent wake-up call about the importance of credible news in contested information spaces.

Whatever damage has been done to US credibility in the Indo-Pacific, a return to 'normal service’ would be welcome and still a strategic 'win' for democracy.

3.5% shaping up to be the new "tens of thousands".

Nevertheless, a positive step.