Friends, you've been submitting great proposals for this project and we're now coming up to capacity. We're closing proposals on April 15th; please send yours in!

MSF condemns this attack and calls for protection of civilians and health facilities.

Strikes near hospitals spread fear and deter lifesaving care. MSF is deploying a mass-casualty kit and continuing support.

Civilians cannot be collateral damage.

Or without the relabelling:

First choice -> M <- Query

Where all three nodes have domain {L, M, R} and you make inferences on Query given your choice and Monty’s reaction, knowing Monty’s rule

Formally just like the usual X -> Y <- Q

So realize this is just back to the top nodes of your graph

Realise this can just be thought of as learning about a parent from a child :

Query -> M

Where Query in {A, B, C} and M in {B, C}

No collision

Hi will; fwiw here's a version with a three node DAG, all nodes binary that captures the core I think?

A -> B -> M <- A

Implemented in CausalQueries below

M is a collider and lets you learn about the joint distribution of A and B

(Causal interpretation of first link questionable maybe)

Congrats !!

🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science.

Here’s what we found 👇

Mit der Süddeutschen habe ich über internet shutdowns und Gewalt gesprochen: www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/iran...

@hertieschool.bsky.social @hertiesecurity.bsky.social

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@epssnet.bsky.social
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Nice!

Stellungnahme zur deutschen Außenpolitik im Zuge der Angriffe der USA und Israels auf den Iran

„Langfristig ist es daher nicht nur moralisch und rechtlich geboten, sondern auch im Eigeninteresse Deutschlands, auf einer regelbasierten Ordnung zu bestehen und entsprechend zu handeln.“

verfassungsblog.de/stellungnahm...

Remarkable amount of content in this short message ☘️

Fun fact: my dissertation was called "Wars of Choice" (became Leaders at War: How Presidents Shape Military Interventions @cornellupress.bsky.social). Tl;dr: they rarely go well. 1/ www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801...

The Department of Sociology, within the School of Social Sciences and Philosophy, invites applications for a PhD Researcher on far-right mobilization and community responses in Ireland.

🚨 Applications close on 30 April 2026 🚨

Find out more: www.tcd.ie/sociology/ne...

@tcdschoolssp.bsky.social

Reminder that the deadline for nominations for the EPSS Best Book award 2026 is March 31, 2026!

The EPSS Best Book Award recognizes an outstanding scholarly contribution to the field of political science.

1/2

🚨 Important news from EPSS, we are inviting proposals for pre-conference workshops.

Proposals should be submitted via the form on the EPPS website by 2 April 2026. Applicants will be notified of decisions by 10 April 2026.

Please find more information here: epssnet.org/pre-conferen...

Glad to see this getting international attention: the culture minister’s ham-fisted move against independent bookstores; another worrying sign of the German government drifting away from liberal principles

Horrific to see, again, the treatment of Lebanon and disgusted to see this reckless use of evacuation orders, this normalization of the abuse and traumatization of civilian populations, and the tolerance for this horror all around

What are our teams witnessing in #Lebanon? How is Doctors Without Borders responding? Jeremy Ristord, Country Director, updates on the situation and our activities:

Please note the very short deadline

EPSS Travel Grants for 2026 Belfast conference:

PhD students & junior scholars @ institutions in European countries that are often underrepresented, can apply for full fee waiver & £500 stipend

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Who loses from the Anthropic fight? Maybe Elon Musk and Alex Karp. Arbitrary state power can cut in many directions

www.programmablemutter.com/p/who-loses-... I wouldn't want to be either Palantir or Space-X in a post Defense Production Act world.

Looks nice!
It looks like models using conditional probability distributions only, is tha right; have you been looking into unobserved confounding also ?

A friend for your app to play with/

shiny2.wzb.eu/ipi/process_...

📢 Registration Reminder for EPSS Belfast 2026

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for majority rule that's pretty much right; there's work connecting e.g. dimensionality to the Nakamura number e.g in Austen Smith and Banks (the piece with Laver is for non standard prefs)

but again even if there's sometimes a little hope in d>2, the core hasn't done the work we hoped of it in d=1

Your very own Brendan Nyhan
🤩

Now also available as a Claude Code skill thanks to @tiagoventura.bsky.social www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/pk0np...

Well you can have a multicameral core

macartan.github.io/assets/pdf/p...

Or even a city block core

macartan.github.io/assets/pdf/p...

But still yes trap is the right term here

The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap What the Democratic party needs; what it demands, is bold, persistent experimentation

The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-median...