Global temperatures in 2026 are on track to be the second warmest on record, at around 1.47C above preindustrial levels across the five different records assessed by Carbon Brief. Read more in our latest State of the Climate update for Q1 2026 here: www.carbonbrief.org/...
๐๐ฅ New study on Spatially compounding fire danger in Europe, led by E. Gauthier.
We often view extreme fire weather locallyโbut what if multiple European countries face it simultaneously, potentially overwhelming shared firefighting resources via widespread fires?
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Poster for the CBC 2026: Conference on Connecting Biodiversity, Climate and Human Behaviour Sept 21-24, 2026 Leipzig, Germany Extended Abstract Submission Deadline: April 21st organized by: UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Universitรคt Leipzig
A photo of a forest with many dead trees and the climate stripes on a bridge from above. With the text on top "Keynotes"
๐ข ๐๐
๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ! ๐ช๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐:
cbc-conference.org
Below a ๐งต with the ๐ธ๐ฒ๐๐ป๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐:
#CBC2026Leipzig #Biodiversity #ClimateScience #BehaviouralScience
@unileipzig.bsky.social @ufz.de @idiv-research.bsky.social
A graph showing the rise in citations for our 2023 motonormativity paper, up to 101 in total today
Given the considerable lags in the academic publishing process, I'm surprised and gratified by how rapidly motonormativity is becoming a thing in the literature
More research is necessary but nearly all of the patients who responded to the personalised vaccine are still alive six years later.
3D view of 10 hPa geopotential heights for 06 UTC 14 April 2026, from the GFS.
The GFS tends to ring like a bell in response to strong tropical cyclones. Here's a 3D view of the pressure pattern in the mid-stratosphere, about 30 km above the surface. ๐งช @blender.org
Yesterday, the #ESA and #JAXA EarthCARE satellite passed directly over the eye of Super Typhoon #SINLAKU in the Northwestern Pacific. Last year, EarthCARE already flew over the eye of Hurricane Humberto, this time it is impressive how the Doppler and Lidar signals almost reach the ocean surface.
Communicating changes in the intensity of UK heatwaves
Global warming of โjustโ 1ยฐC does not necessarily sound like a problem. But in the UK, the hottest summer days are warming much faster than typical summer days, changing our experience of heatwaves
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
With the latest set of El Niรฑo forecasts, NOAA's CFSv2 model needs to get a larger y-axis scale ๐ฏ
Nice new map by our colleagues from @aemet.es , using our #CopernicusAtmosphere data.
CAMS dust aerosol optical depth forecast shows #SaharanDust over the Iberian Peninsula, reaching the west coast and the south of France.
Check our latest forecast here: atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packa...
Great thread, diving into the data on how wealthier people drive more (except London) and how we're not helping the poorest if we assume they drive
Nice article from Nick on the perspective offered by two Earth photos!
Earthrise to Earthset: how the planetโs climate has changed since the photo that inspired the environmental movement theconversation.com/earthrise-to...
WORLD VIEW 15 April 2026 Why more fossil fuels wonโt fix the Iran energy crisis Climate-friendly technologies are the best way to stymie rising inflation โ and will get better and cheaper over time. By Gernot Wagner Spend any time discussing solar and wind power as a solution to climate change, and you are sure to encounter someone who asks about reliability. The Sun does not shine at night and the wind does not always blow, so fossil fuels will be needed forever as a back-up, they argue. But how reliable are fossil fuels? In the past two months, conflict in Iran has created an energy crisis โ the latest in a series. Oil prices spiked within days of the start of US, Israeli and Iranian bombing in the Gulf region on 28 February. Fuel prices remain high and volatile, and the ripple effects are set to increase inflation in the coming months. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bankโs executive board, memorably named this effect fossilflation in the aftermath of Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine in 2022. There was, and is, one clear winner: renewables and other low-carbon technologies, from batteries to electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps. That is what distinguishes this Middle East oil and gas crisis from the Arab oil embargoes of the 1970s. Then, renewables were mostly unavailable, and industrial decarbonization was on few peopleโs radars. Solar power cost at least 500 times more than it does today, and EVs, heat pumps and induction stoves were a pipe dream. Ditching fossil fuels is not all smooth sailing. In 2022, European natural-gas prices spiked to ten times their levels before the Ukraine invasion, resulting in long waiting times for solar panels and heat pumps. Prices for these rose as demand outpaced supply, an effect Schnabel dubbed greenflation. She used a third term, climateflation, to describe the economic effects of climate-induced weather extremes, such as food-price rises from crop failures (M. Kotz et al. Commun. Earth Environ. 5; 2024).
The Iran War has once again led to a bout of what @isabelschnabel.bsky.social memorably dubbed 'fossilflation'.
It's en vouge to talk about the solution as some massively complex undertaking. It really isn't. Get off fossil fuels faster.
My latest just out @nature.com
rdcu.be/fdxig
Thankful to UN-Habitat for clearly illustrating the vision of the 15-minute city.
A city of proximity, where essential needs such as work, education, healthcare, and leisure are accessible within a short distance, represents a powerful model for more equitable and sustainable urban living.
a chart showing rising emissions after each crisis
The 2020s have already seen two major fossil fuel shocks. In 2022, Russia, the worldโs largest fossil fuel exporter, invaded Ukraine. In 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the worldโs largest oil and LNG supply route, was shut by the US-Israel war with Iran. The parallels with the 1970s oil shocks are striking. But so too is the difference. For the first time, there are scalable, cost-competitive alternatives. Solar, wind, batteries, EVs and other electrotech offer a permanent route out of fossil dependence. The shock has jolted the electric age forward. But the response is a choice: lean into local, electric security, or reach back to the old fossil playbook.
Something we need to make really clear is that there is no guarantee that fossil fuel crises end up as a net benefit for climate action, emissions reductions or even just simple technological growth
ie - "The response is a choice" @ember-energy.org
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
Holy smokes! An incredible start to the 'Wildfire Season' in the US this year - owing to an abnormally hot and snowless winter in some parts of the country.
Not the main point of the thread, but the Berkeley Earth to ERA5 comparison is interesting for another reason.
ERA5 Reanalysis is generally very good, but it has some regional issues with long-term drift, likely due to changes in its inputs, especially prior to satellites.
GFS map of temperature anomalies over the contiguous USA for March 21, 2026.
We need to talk a bit about how utterly absurd the March heatwave was in the USA.
This heatwave would have been impossible without a boost from climate change, but even with climate change it remains a deeply unlikely event.
A thread looking at some of the numbers.
๐งต
Working on climate storylines and climate risk? Then check out our new collection with @janasillmann.bsky.social, Martha Vogel & Massimiliano Pittore in Env. Res. Clim., now open for submissions:
iopscience.iop.org/collections/...
How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niรฑo?
By Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
Fig.1 showing map of Lake Yoa in northern Africa
Figure 3 showing lots of palaeo-timeseries over past 10,000 years
African Humid Period (AHP) punctuated by decadal-scale #droughts with an event 8.2 thousand years ago linked to fresh water influx that weakened the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on high resolution paleoclimate observations & modelling @nature.com
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niรฑo forecasts out through at least September 2026.
They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came out) is right around the middle of the pack:
The March 2026 #C3S Climate Bulletin reports the 4th-warmest March globally, 1.48ยฐC above the pre-industrial level. Europe saw its 2nd-warmest March on record, while global-average SST reached 20.97ยฐC, the second-highest for March. #CopernicusClimate
More info โฌ๏ธ
โ The March 2026 #C3S Climate Bulletin reports the lowest Arctic March sea ice extent in the 48-year satellite record at 5.7% below average, and tied lowest maximum winter extent. Antarctic sea ice extent was 10% below average.
๐ climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cove...
@osi-saf.eumetsat.int
Singendes Rotkehlchen, fotografiert von Corey Callaghan
๐ถ Waldgerรคusche erhellen das Gemรผt ๐ Insbesondere dann, wenn sie vertraut sind.
Die in ๐ฉ๐ช lebenden Studienteilnehmerinnen und -teilnehmer empfanden die Naturgerรคusche als beeindruckender und erholsamer, wenn diese aus heimischen Wรคldern stammten statt aus den Tropen ๐ณ
www.idiv.de/de/waldgerae...
If you haven't seen it yet, our international Conference on Connections between Biodiversity, Climate, and Human Behaviour is taking shape: cbc-conference.org Abstract deadline next Friday, 14 April. Great keynote speakers and nice side-events, please check out the programme or get in touch!
Must-read from my colleague @scharfbillig.bsky.social with @lewan.bsky.social et al.
Democracy depends on a certain degree of shared reality. The attention economy delivers ever more bespoke realities.
The report sets out why and proposes how to deliver a pro-democracy information space.
๐งต New report just dropped ๐จ "Fractured Reality: How Democracy Can Win the Global Struggle Over the Information Space" โ from the EU Joint Research Centre, led by Mario Scharfbillig and I. A landmark read for anyone working on disinformation, platforms & democracy. ๐
1/10
