Elections 2026: London There are local elections in the UK every May, and every year I do a preview.

Sam @samfr.bsky.social sticks his neck out further than I’ve done on predicting local elections but force me to say and I’d agree with nearly all of these open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/e...

This is the worst thing you've ever done to us.

If Starmer was at -20, Labour would be on track for a second term and there'd be no question of him being deposed.

Well no because if everyone is unpopular then you can stay in power even if half the country hates you. It's not a causal explanation. (Macron and Sanchez being good examples).

I think we have to recalibrate our sense of popularity. Pretty much every politician now has a net unfavourable so -20 is actually not bad. -60 is still bad.

Yes they all have right wing press.

This is very good!

I think NIP will eat the Green vote. If you look at by-elections in e.g. Beckton - NIP have gone past the Greens in seats where you'd have thought Greens would be the main challenger.

Also they have social media in Canada and Carney's doing fine.

They have it in Spain and Sanchez has been PM since 2018.

And in France where Macron's been President since 2017.

Difficult to see them wanting coalitions with Greens. Think they might be OK with your lot.

Yeah I agree - especially where you've got bunches of independents in the mix too potentially holding the balance of power.

Telegraph newspaper editorial on Mandelson's appointment in December 2024 versus editorial today

Elections 2026: The Five Battlegrounds There are local elections in the UK every May, and every year I do a preview.

The second broke England (outside of London) into five battlegrounds to show how the five-party system is playing out.

Includes predictions for all 104 councils.

samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

Elections 2026: The Preview Part one

The first post in the series looked at the overall picture in England as well as the parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales.

samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

Ok but if I did something different to everyone else I'd get complaints about that. I explain how it works in the post.

Last year Reform "won" Doncaster (it's light blue on the BBC map) but it has a Labour executive mayor...

I don't know what you want from me. Everyone lists it as NOC. The BBC, wikipedia etc... I know it has a mayor and it's discussed in the post. I even make a prediction on who will win that...

That means a lot! I was reading through yours late last night and worrying about Havering and Barking again...

Elections 2026: London There are local elections in the UK every May, and every year I do a preview.

New post:

"Elections 2026: London"

In my final preview I've split London into ten different battlegrounds to show how the capital's politics is evolving. With predictions for each borough.

In collaboration with the brilliant @londoncentric.media

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

Go to any election website and it's listed as NOC because it's a minority administration. Lots of places are run by one party as a minority but are still listed as NOC.

If no one has a majority of councillors it's classified as NOC as it is now.

Wow that sucks. Sorry.

You could listen to those of us who are and are politically independent. I've no axe to grind against Starmer or Labour. I'm just reporting what I see and hear.

We knew he was still friends with Epstein after his conviction - that was on the front page of newspapers.

And plenty of us did not think it was a genius move.

What would proof involve here? The fact that no one who might be in a position to know disagrees with me seems like quite good proof to me.

Thanks @samfr.bsky.social for y’dad’s fascinating report on Ukraine drone evolution. Let’s hope Ukraine can keep the edge as it faces more technological twists and turns.

Find a Westminster journalist who disagrees with me... (based on talking to MPs).

Agreed.

A majority would bin him tomorrow if they could agree on a replacement. But they can't so this all drags on...

Appointment of Lord Mandelson as the next British Ambassador to the United States of America The Prime Minister has today confirmed the appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson to be the next British Ambassador to the United States of America.

No it was formally announced.

www.gov.uk/government/n...

Yeah but their job isn't announced until after the references are checked.