Eu concordo que é uma péssima ideia, mas mesmo nesse cenário absurdo ainda é possível que existam imóveis para alugar. Uma família poderia ter vários imóveis, morar em um e alugar os demais.

**Part 1: From Bayesian inference to Bayesian workflow** 1. Bayesian theory and Bayesian practice 2. Statistical modeling and workflow 3. Computational tools 4. Introduction to workflow: Modeling performance on a multiple choice exam **Part 2: Statistical workflow** 5. Building statistical models 6. Using simulations to capture uncertainty 7. Prediction, generalization, and causal inference 8. Visualizing and checking fitted models 9. Comparing and improving models 10. Statistical inference and scientific inference **Part 3: Computational workflow** 11. Fitting statistical models 12. Diagnosing and fixing problems with fitting 13. Approximate algorithms and approximate models 14. Simulation-based calibration checking 15. Statistical modeling as software development

**4. Case studies** 16. Coding a series of models: Simulated data of movie ratings 17. Prior specification for regression models: Reanalysis of a sleep study 18. Predictive model checking and comparison: Clinical trial 19. Building up to a hierarchical model: Coronavirus testing 20. Using a fitted model for decision analysis: Mixture model for time series competition 21. Posterior predictive checking: Stochastic learning in dogs 22. Incremental development and testing: Black cat adoptions 23. Debugging a model: World Cup football 24. Leave-one-out cross validation model checking and comparison: Roaches 25. Model building and expansion: Golf putting 26. Model building with latent variables: Markov models for animal movement 27. Model building: Time-series decomposition for birthdays 28. Models for regression coefficients and variable selection: Student grades 29. Sampling problems with latent variables: No vehicles in the park 30. Challenge of multimodality: Differential equation for planetary motion 31. Simulation-based calibration checking in model development workflow **Appendices** A. Statistical and computational workflow for Bayesians and non-Bayesians B. How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis

Bayesian Workflow by
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, @rmcelreath.bsky.social with @danpsimpson.bsky.social, @charlesm993.bsky.social, @yulingy.bsky.social, Lauren Kennedy, Jonah Gabry, @paulbuerkner.com, @modrakm.bsky.social, @vianeylb.bsky.social

(in production, estimated copy-editing time 6 weeks)

The call for applications for the Summer Incubator 2026 at the @mpidr.bsky.social is open!

Deadline: Jan 14, 2026.

Topics/Teams:
1) Spatial Mobility and Scientific Production
2) Digitalization, AI and Inequalities

Check out the brand new website for information:
www.incubator.demogr.mpg.de

🎉🎊A week full of celebrations
✨Two ERC Starting Grants for the MPIDR✨
We are thrilled to announce that @marilianep.bsky.social and @ugobas.bsky.social have each been awarded with an ERC Starting Grant by the @erc.europa.eu. #ERCStG
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...
#ERCStartingGrant #longevity

Reminder that all three books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use (and the fourth will be, too)

In 1981 NYT published a piece on the then-new citation index, and how it was being used "unintentionally" for performance evaluations

Learned so much this week doing this course! Highly recommend it!Completed the week with this plot version from my project about Shared Lifetime in 1950 and 2023

Some good news to brighten up your feed: Our #R package 📦 DemoKin for the demographic analysis of kinship has a new website with extensive documentation and literature 🎉🎈 @mpidr.bsky.social If you don't know it yet, why not check it out? ivanwilli.github.io/DemoKin/inde...

Very proud of this work by Faeze Ghorbanpour, @thiagomalaguth.bsky.social and me, which addresses the left censoring issues in migration research that uses digital trace data.

It will appear in the proceedings of #ICWSM2025, and Faeze is going to present it there.

Access:
doi.org/10.48550/arX...

Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População Estimular e difundir a produção brasileira e internacional no campo da Demografia e População e Desenvolvimento Sustentável e propiciar o diálogo entre este campo e áreas afins.

Last january/february, I started a new position as the Editor of the Brazilian Journal of Population Studies - . Rebep is the official publication of the Brazilian Association of Population Studies (ABEP).

Rebep is 100% Open Access. Please, find more information here: www.scielo.br/j/rbepop/

Congratulations Monica! iussp.org/en/2025-iuss...

Call for Papers: Workshop on Health and Mortality in Latin America (Montevideo, Uruguay, 17-18 Sept 2025)

Deadline for submission: 20 April 2025

This workshop will focus on discussing recent changes in health and mortality profiles in LA and the challenges these pose for different countries.

The call for applications for the European Doctoral School of Demography (EDSD) 2025-2026 is open!

This international doctoral program aims to provide students with a high-level education in demography.

Deadline to apply: March 25th, 2025 at 12 PM (noon).
More information: eaps.nl/edsd/how-to-...

In December 2024, 223 new R-packages were published on CRAN.
TwoTimeScales is one of the top 40 packages according to Joseph Rickert.
Shutout to @egorkotov.bsky.social and his spanishoddata also appearing among the top 40!

🤩🥳

www.r-bloggers.com/2025/01/dece...

Are you going to #PAA2025 and work with sequence analysis? Then submit your paper to our pre-PAA sequence analysis workshop, happening right before #PAA2025, same venue, on April 9 - free of charge! You only need a 200-word abstract 🚀 and can also just register for attendance.

See y'all there! 🤗

WelcomeWeeks @mpidr.bsky.social! We are happy to welcome @thiagomalaguth.bsky.social as a new team member. Thiago holds a Master's degree in Demography from the University of Minas Gerais and also attended the European Doctoral School of Demography. Welcome Thiago!
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...

Interested in scholarly migration and mobility?
Register to join us online for a one-day symposium on October 15, using the link 👇

Last day of the "Intro to Bayesian Statistics for Demographic Science"@mpidr.bsky.social: It was a great week with lab sessions & great instructors guiding through prior & posterior probability distributions to understand Bayesian inference. Thanks@imprs-phds.bsky.social! @oxforddemsci.bsky.social

🚨Job Offer🚨 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁-𝗗𝗼𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿
Application Deadline: Oct 31, 2024
@mpidr.bsky.social is looking for a post-doctoral researcher to join the Research Group on #Migration and #Health #Inequalities led by @loisilvia.bsky.social.
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...
#PostDoc #jobs

🚨DEADLINE EXTENDED🚨
📣Call for Application‼️
2. Rostock Open Science Workshop Rostock @mpidr.bsky.social
📅March 17–18, 2025
#openscience #data
demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...
@ezagheni.bsky.social @demography.bsky.social @julialeesch.bsky.social

📣 Estou com um vaga para assistente de pesquisa trabalhar comigo com ciência de dados, acessibilidade urbana e identificação causal www.ipea.gov.br/portal/bolsa... (vaga em Brasília). Ajudem a divulgar <3

Call for Application! YouTube video by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

📣Call for Application‼️ Join online‼️
Topics in Digital and Computational Demography
📅Nov 4 - Nov 8, 2024
Application Deadline: Sep 24, 2024
Instructors: @akbaritabar.bsky.social Jisu Kim @conteristo.bsky.social Tom Theile & @ezagheni.bsky.social
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...
youtu.be/ATmV919lgzI

Thiago @thiagomalaguth.bsky.social presenting his great results on gender differences in internal and international migration of scholars worldwide at #EPC2024
@mpidr.bsky.social @ezagheni.bsky.social

📣Call for papers‼️ Angela Carollo, Aapo Hiilamo & Mikko Myrskylä invite submissions for the workshop "Demystifying machine learning for population researchers" which aims to clarify goals, techniques,& applications of machine learning methods for population research. www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...

Important! We announce the XI Congress of ALAPLet's meet from December 9 to 13, 2024 in Bogotá, Colombia, to explore the 'new' demographic scenarios in Latin America and the Caribbean.

More info here congreso.alapop.org

Brazil's new it-town for Carnival 2024 This year, Brazilians seem to have recognised that the heart of carnival culture is not in Rio, but in little-known Belo Horizonte.

My hometown, "little-known" Belo Horizonte is now the center of carnival in Brazil. 😄

www.bbc.com/travel/artic...

updates about LAHMD - lamortalidad.github.io

The new web-site (and domain) is up and working. We have available data for 7 countries in Latin America.

Let's try to make this platform the new public forum for discussing infographics and data visualization. Shall we?

Salut de Paris! Our colleagues @thiagomalaguth.bsky.social , Nikita Kubska, Laura Pasqua Leone & Jose Andrade are part of the European Doctoral School of Demography 2023-2024 cohort. They are enjoying their stay in Paris with the Institut national d’études démographiques! @eapsphd.bsky.social

Check out this 3 year postdoc focused on modelling kinship and intergenerational processes in demography with the amazing Ridhi Kashyap at Oxford Sociology. Kinship! 🔗 my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...