Traveling, no "thoughts for the weekend". Sorry.

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
A-D Lines are close to their ATHs

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
What a TACO looks like
#Liquidity

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The real TACO emergency

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
As risk appetite have turned risk-on, the markets have retuend to the Sell America trade again

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Time for a breather?
1) $SPX at top end of upper BB
2) 5-day RSI overbought
3) $VIX at bottom end of lower BB

$SPX upside breakout through falling trend line held for a 2nd day. Key is whether $VVIX can get below 100

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Eyes of the beholder:
I know that there are lots of concerns about a supply shock induced market downdraft, but why are cyclicals behaving so well?

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Eyes of the beholder:
Equity put/call ratio, recent peak higher than "Liberation Day" bottom
$CPCE

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Total put/call ratio, panicked enough compared to the "Liberation Day" bottom?
$CPC

1 of 5 thoughts for the long weekend (retired, but still can't stay away)
An eyes of the beholder weekend:
Watch the $NDX, which is dragging down the $SPX while broader indices have rallied through the falling trend line.

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX forward P/E now between its 5 and 10 year averages

The rational economic response for an ally is to pay Iran the $1/barrel surcharge to open the Strait. Money has no ideology.

If the US (or Israel) wants another outcome then let them subsidize the ally. Start by discussing the 15% tariff...

Monty Python - Always Look on the Bright Side of Life YouTube video by thebrat307101

www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPO...

Claudia Sahm: "We don't need the SoH is the new 'foreigners pay the tariffs'".

I went for an evening walk and saw a sign that I should post for today

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
I'm old enough to remember the jitters over private credit. Indicators of credit stress are healing.
$HYG $HYGH $BKLN $OWL

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The war has turned the Sell America trade into Buy America. USD and USTs are well bid, though $SPX vs. $ACWX has stabilized.

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Somebody is very wrong. $SPX skidding but forward 12m EPS is on a tear.

How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz | Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark…

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX, USTs, volatility (especially $MOVE) are all screaming TACO

Here's a possible path for opening the SoH from Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. Hunt down enough launchers and then start escorts.
podcast.silverado.org/e/how-to-reo...

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Why TACO?
Ds expected to win the House, and betting odds on the Senate amount to a coin flip.

This may be my final "thoughts for the weekend"
I'll be retiring and spending my days fahter-daughter bonding over Baldur's Gate and Crusader Kings

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Fear & Greed Index

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Fearful enough? 10 dma of CBOE put/call ratio

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator is back in oversold territory
Red lines = ZBT oversold
Dotted blue lines = ZBT buy signal

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The TALO (Trump Always Lashes Out) and TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) dashboard
Implied vol ($VIX, $MOVE) firmly in the TACO zone

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
US is not the safe haven trade. Sell America has become Buy America

If you parse that sentence, he did not say that it was a former president of the United States. It could have been the former president of a company.

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator is oversold. Pink lines show past instances when it was oversold. Dotted blue lines are ZBT buy signals.

I am not holding my breath for a buy signal, but a bounce is highly likely.

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Why the latest spike in Brent oil is different from the June spike. The YoY change in June was negative, it's hugely positive today.

The current YoY change far exceeds the spring/summer 2024 when Trump skillfully attacked Biden on "affordability".