10/ "Very kind of the U.S. to help China out with its problem of over production of clean energy products" -@ryangrim
For anyone wondering whether US+Israeli war with Iran is driving interest in electro-tech.
I called this weapons-grade irony the "cunning of History": tinyurl.com/PolycrisisWe...
"Dube has a terrific new book out, The Wage Standard: What’s wrong in the labor market and how to fix it, which is a manifesto on how to improve the state of workers."
Thanks for the shoutout, @pkrugman.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Author @gilduran.com was just banned from “free speech absolutist” twitter for criticizing the Palantir CEO’s manifesto— so here’s his upcoming book: www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Ne...
Policy shifts coming fast. France accelerates Electrification
- a ban on gas boilers in new houses from end of 2026
- increased support for replacing old heating with heat pumps
- 100 regions will pilot comprehensive heat transition plans to phase out gas by 2030
www.info.gouv.fr/actualite/el...
Open question - what are the political and material underpinnings of Spanish democracy fightback against MAGA vision for europe?
What are generalizable lessons that can other countries parties and leaders learn from them? is it vulnerable electorally?
www.phenomenalworld.org/subject/spain/
1/ "This is the pivot point in the energy transition folks. Fossil chaos drives people to electrotech, as this is the first oil shock with a superior alternative. " says @ember-energy.org @kingsmillbond.bsky.social
We argued similarly last week at Wesleyan (slides here)
tinyurl.com/PolycrisisWe...
you are telling me french engineers figured out high speed rail 45 years ago? and made trains all electric after the 1970s oil crises? daaaammm. so when there is yet another oil crisis in 2026, they are all just.....fine???
bsky.app/profile/lucd...
just gonna leave this here.
kiss any summer plane travel plans good bye
everyone's out of jet fuel just before peak travel season...
tinyurl.com/PolycrisisWesleyan bsky.app/profile/70sb...
Comparative table of EV battery industrial strategies across five countries: Hungary, Poland, Germany, France, and Sweden, evaluated along three dimensions: climate, industry, and geopolitics, plus an overall model classification. Model row: Hungary is “Minimalist”; Poland is “Minimalist/mixed”; Germany is “Mixed”; France is “Maximalist (with fiscal and viability risks)”; Sweden is “Defunct Maximalist.” Climate row: Hungary relies on a gas-dependent power sector with ecological damage. Poland and Germany both have high-emission power sectors, with Poland also associated with ecological damage. France has a cleaner power sector. Sweden has the cleanest production profile, based on 100 percent green energy. Industry row: Hungary and Poland are fully FDI-based with low value-added production; Hungary has a shallow domestic ecosystem, while Poland has a somewhat stronger one. Germany combines domestic players (such as PowerCo) with foreign investment and has a strong domestic ecosystem. France follows a domestic champion strategy (including firms like Verkor and ACC) combined with FDI under technology-sharing conditions. Sweden’s model is fully domestic with local R&D. Geopolitics row: Hungary shows dependence on Chinese and Russian inputs. Poland lacks domestic capacity but avoids Chinese FDI in downstream production. Germany hedges with domestic players but remains exposed to China and Hungary. France combines geopolitical hedging with a balanced presence of Chinese involvement. Sweden relies on domestic capacity.
6/ So far, low-road pathways dominate, with Hungary & Poland hosting 80% of online capacities. Germany combines low-road & high-road elements. France is the closest to a consistent high-road approach, but fiscal & viability risks loom large. Sweden’s (1st) high-road attempt collapsed with Northvolt.
4/ The 2 cases point to a broader problem. Europe has high-road ambitions, but this is costly & risky & undercut by the low-road strategies within the same single market.
EU subsidy policy is strikingly incoherent: member states simultaneously fund EU champions & their foreign competitors.
Planned 2030 battery manufacturing capacities by company HQ announced gigafactory projects (GWh/a, maximum capacities). Hungary leading before Germany.
Hungary's FORMER autocratic leader Viktor Orbán in 2022, announcing plans to turn the country into a "battery superpower".
Man with "STOP BATTERY FACTORY" sign in Debrecen, at one of the protests against CATL's planned factory.
2/ Take Hungary. Orbán set out to turn it into a “battery superpower”, leading the pack in committed investment.
But rapid rollout brought ecological devastation, low quality jobs & domestic backlash.
Russian gas-fueled, Chinese-owned factories were still praised by the EU as "strategic autonomy."
There's a global race to secure EV battery gigafactories & reduce reliance on China.
But not all clean-tech projects are created equal. Some generate good jobs & domestic capacities, others produce ecological harm & low value-added enclaves.
New paper & thread 👇
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The president is currently trying to steal 10 BILLION DOLLARS from the American people and it’s not the main news story in the country… not even close
6/ This convergence is driven by brutal political necessity.
Government reaction: Electrification offers a structural exit from a system that is now fundamentally unstable.
Its a shared logic of sovereignty & electrification across energy, industry, and defense. ht @picharbonnier.bsky.social
7/ Iran war disruptions will accelerate electrification. Countries & ppl will want autonomy
Solar already EU's biggest power source for first time. That is already making ppl more resilient.
Some Solar booms that no one saw coming --Netherlands and Hungary-now over 40% solar, higher than Spain!
Palantir's CEO published a manifesto arguing Western tech firms have a "moral debt" to US military dominance, that AI weapons are inevitable, and that "some cultures are dysfunctional." This isn't just a regularly evil tech or defence contractor, it’s a fascist political project.
2/ "We're price taker and not a price maker"
"There is one lesson from this crisis, and only one lesson"
"We need homegrown clean power that we can control"
"We cannot keep being on this fossil fuel roller coaster"
Thank you for the clear explanation
@Ed_Miliband"
x.com/implausibleb...
Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו @netanyahu As the Jewish state, Israel cherishes and upholds the Jewish values of tolerance and mutual respect between Jews and worshippers of all faiths. All religions flourish in our land and we view members of all faiths as equals in building our society and region. Yesterday, like the overwhelming majority of Israelis, I was stunned and saddened to learn that an IDF soldier damaged a Catholic religious icon in southern Lebanon. I condemn the act in the strongest terms. Military authorities are conducting a criminal probe of the matter and will take appropriately harsh disciplinary action against the offender. While Christians are being slaughtered in Syria and Lebanon by Muslims, the Christian population in Israel thrives unlike elsewhere in the Middle East. Israel is the only country in the region that the Christian population and standard of living is growing. Israel is the only place in the Middle East that adheres to freedom of worship for all. We express regret for the incident and for any hurt this has caused to believers in Lebanon and around the world.
Bibi is cooked, fam
9/ And China? Well it did energy security first after oil prices shot up after 2003 US invasion of Iraq
Reaping benefits decades later as whole world wants electrotech to de-risk from fossil fuels...
Its a Geopolitics of Energy story that @katemac.bsky.social & I tell in our new Polycrisis podcast
8/ Most fuel importing countries want electrification. FAST
Expect to hear that exact sentiment echoed from Islamabad to Jakarta, Seoul to Delhi in the coming months.
tinyurl.com/PolycrisisWe...
7/ Most fuel importing countries want electrification. FAST
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband put it well: “There is one lesson from this crisis, and only one lesson. We need homegrown clean power that we can control. We cannot keep being on this fossil fuel roller coaster.”
bsky.app/profile/70sb...
6/ This convergence is driven by brutal political necessity.
Government reaction: Electrification offers a structural exit from a system that is now fundamentally unstable.
Its a shared logic of sovereignty & electrification across energy, industry, and defense. ht @picharbonnier.bsky.social
6/ Policy shifts coming fast. Indonesian government, heavy on Coal & Palm Oil was way behind Solar boom across Asia in last decade
Faced with 2 Oil shocks in 4 years?
"We will convert all motorcycles into electric motorcycles. All cars, all trucks, all tractors must [also] be electric"
5/ Policy shifts coming fast. Korea's President: “South Korea must swiftly transition to renewable energy.”
“Relying on fossil energy is extremely dangerous for the future. We do not produce these resources ourselves,& chasing imports has led to the current crisis"
www.chosun.com/english/nati...
A quote from @70sbachchan.bsky.social that didn't make it into my NYT piece:
"Countries can make very big strategic choices during oil shocks that last for generations."
That includes policymakers ... and consumers. 👇
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/o...
4/ Policy shifts coming fast. Crisis-wracked Pakistan after 2022 recorded a record-smashing Solar & Battery boom, which is already saving billions amid its gas crunch
Subsidies & interest-free loans under Pakistan's Accelerated Vehicle Electrification plan
www.devdiscourse.com/article/head...
4/ Policy shifts coming fast. France accelerates Electrification
-a ban on gas boilers in new houses from end of 2026
- increased support for replacing old heating with heat pumps
-100 regions will pilot comprehensive heat transition plans to phase out gas by 2030
www.info.gouv.fr/actualite/el...
3/ What is going to make consumer behavior away from oil and gas structural & a long-term shift is Govt policy.
And we now see structural policy shifts towards electrification of end-uses (transport, heating, cooling, industry etc) in dozens of countries
www.carbonbrief.org/iran-war-ana...
2/ 2026 Iran war driven cleantech boom time.
"data published by the Chinese customs authority & analysed by Ember shows that exports of solar, lithium-ion batteries & EVs totalled $200 billion over the last 12 months."
Surge of consumers de-risking from fossil fuels ember-energy.org/data/china-c...
1/ "This is the pivot point in the energy transition folks. Fossil chaos drives people to electrotech, as this is the first oil shock with a superior alternative. " says @ember-energy.org @kingsmillbond.bsky.social
We argued similarly last week at Wesleyan (slides here)
tinyurl.com/PolycrisisWe...
