ECMWF data store – new portal for S2S & TIGGE data access ecds.ecmwf.int

chasing goose meme with everything is securities fraud everything is securities fraud to whom

Homenagem a Antonio Divino Moura, um pilar da meteorologia brasileira Pesquisador do INPE, ex-diretor do Inmet e referência internacional em clima e sociedade, Antonio Divino Moura (1944-2026) deixa contribuição indelével à ciência no Brasil

Divino Moura (1944–2026) founding director of the IRI (hired me) and all-around climate prediction pioneer www.gov.br/inpe/pt-br/a...

👍

Real PI is the real thing of course. An early Relative SST/TC paper is

Gabriel A. Vecchi et al. ,Whither Hurricane Activity?.Science322,687-689(2008). doi.org/10.1126/scie...

Relevance of Relative Sea Surface Temperature for Tropical Rainfall Interannual Variability Relative sea surface temperature (RSST) anomalies are defined as SST anomalies minus their tropical mean RSST anomalies, rather than SST anomalies, drive tropical convection interannual variability...

I like this one (original papers cited too); the SI derivation is clear enough for me to follow

Izumo, T., Vialard, J., Lengaigne, M., & Suresh, I. (2020). Relevance of relative sea surface temperature for tropical rainfall interannual variability. GRL, 47, e2019GL086182. doi.org/10.1029/2019...

RONI uses a climatological period to make comparable to ONI (I think)

*struggles to remember what I was thinking 10 days ago* For relative SST, can you simply subtract the tropical mean from the local value? No anomalies, no climatological period? As I understand it, that quantity is a proxy for tropical precipitation and TC people use it as a proxy for PI.

The bars show the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Looking pretty super

Probability of super El Nino vs probability of super duper turbocharged El Nino? Check out the strength forecast cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

The bars show the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). Probability for El Niño exceeding 90%

Wondering about that super duper El Nino? CPC has you covered cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

NMME forecasts of ONI initialized 2026-04-01. Forecasts are well above 0.5 except for CanESM5 who sags in the middle

Pick your fighter: ONI or RONI at nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...

die Paula? as long as it starts with a P

first name Peter?

NMME forecasts of global mean temperature initialized 2026-04-01. Above 1.5 for a good part of the year. Also a lot of spread even at the first lead 😬

BONUS! global mean temperature (who need statistics when we have physics)

NMME forecasts of RONI initialized 2026-04-01. Forecasts are well above 0.5 except for CanESM5 who sags a lot in the middle

NMME forecasts of ONI initialized 2026-04-01. Forecasts are well above 0.5 except for CanESM5 who sags in the middle

Pick your fighter: ONI or RONI at nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...

RONI forecasts from the NMME. CanESM5 please explain yourself

More data from nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/toda...

even more random. buy compute and run the full reforecast

and a very new model www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/for...

cfsv2 forecasts of relative nino 3.5

one (old) model. more at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFS...

the current WMO climate normal is 1991–2020 though

why the 1981-2010 climatology?

JFM 2026 RONI weighs in at -0.72 as cool ENSO conditions continue

one more thought is that there is value to knowing what a power spectrum is just for literacy, even if you never use it

I confess to not really knowing what the power spectrum is good for

An actuary, a lawyer, and a climate risk scientist walk into a bar
(meet on Zoom).

This is the result:
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...

And relative as in local minus tropical mean? Like RONI? it has a theoretical connection to tropical precipitation and an empirical (as far as I know) to PI

any interest in relative SST?

Thanks!

is there place to download a reasonably updated archive of daily RMM12? Or should I be using another MJO index? this seems to end in 2024? www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/...