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Posts by Tony Lyza

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I'd like to introduce you all to a personal project I've been working on recently. It's called Heimdall, and it's an MRMS + ProbSevere situational awareness monitor for CONUS scale severe weather. It's got roaming, alerts, archive mode, and is fully client side.

heimdall.stormscale.io

1 day ago 88 21 11 3
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April 19th, 2023:

A localized tornado outbreak impacted the outskirts of the Oklahoma City metro. Several tornadoes were over half a mile wide, and many exhibited deviant motion. The strongest tornadoes of the day were EF3s near Cole and Pink. Two people were killed.

2 days ago 14 3 0 1
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I think the M&M should be you. #Seinfeld#Costanza

1 week ago 24 4 1 0

Latest estimate on the fire in Carroll County, MS, has it at 4,240 acres and 41% contained. It’s also in the footprint of an EF3 tornado in March 2023. The rest of the week looks breezy to at times windy. Pines there will respond to that and warmer temperatures, so it could be an issue for awhile.

3 weeks ago 7 3 0 0

Yes, “be” should be “me,” but I’m not reposting all of that. An edit button would be great.

4 weeks ago 3 0 0 0
Extreme tree damage along the Sunflower River NE of Rolling Fork, MS.

Extreme tree damage along the Sunflower River NE of Rolling Fork, MS.

EF4 tree damage along Dogwood Rd. NE of Rolling Fork, MS.

EF4 tree damage along Dogwood Rd. NE of Rolling Fork, MS.

EF4 tree damage along the banks of Widow Bayou, NE of Rolling Fork, MS.

EF4 tree damage along the banks of Widow Bayou, NE of Rolling Fork, MS.

Extreme damage to trees and structures NE of Rolling Fork, MS. The small school bus is sitting atop a trailer (not visible in the picture), both of which were tossed into the tree line. The small house/structure on the property was completely obliterated.

Extreme damage to trees and structures NE of Rolling Fork, MS. The small school bus is sitting atop a trailer (not visible in the picture), both of which were tossed into the tree line. The small house/structure on the property was completely obliterated.

A lot of superlatives can describe the Rolling Fork tornado. What always sticks out to be is the severity of the tree damage. So many trees, including bald cypress, one of the heartiest tree species in North America, not only snapped and stripped but even ground up into pieces of mulch.

4 weeks ago 12 1 1 0

The first IOP of PERiLS was 4 years ago today. How time flies.

4 weeks ago 2 0 0 0
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The NOAA/OAR federal positions are now open! Applications close in *one week* on March 25th:

www.usajobs.gov/job/861651700

For more details on GSL’s opening in AI4NWP and related areas, please see:

gsl.noaa.gov/employers/jobs
(refresh page if needed - we’re dealing with some pesky server issues)

1 month ago 25 21 1 0
Preview
BalancedWx Special: A further deep dive on the southern Michigan tornadoes - and implications for the NWS severe weather warning program Meteorologists have to be able to be self-reflective and open to constructive criticism after weather events with serious societal impacts

MI Gov. Whitmer calling for a fed investigation as to why no tornado watch was issued for Friday's tornadoes in SW MI created a stir in the wx community. It stirred me to explain why I think we need to be open to such criticism & how such an event shows the need for changes. tinyurl.com/y8hnh5bj

1 month ago 33 11 8 3
Preview
False Alarms and Missed Events: The Impact and Origins of Perceived Inaccuracy in Tornado Warning Systems Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective acti...

From a forecast communication standpoint, this event highlights the asymmetric costs of false alarms and missed events on trust - perceived repeated false alarms can chip away at forecast trust but a single perceived missed event can devastate trust (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...) 11/16

1 month ago 7 4 1 0

🚨 🚨 🚨

1 month ago 2 0 0 0

💔

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

Yeah that’s a violent tornado

1 month ago 13 2 0 0
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A tornado either just missed or hit the NW side of Wakita

1 month ago 9 1 1 0
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Getting a rare look at a left-handed cycle up close from VNX

1 month ago 12 2 1 0

The Scrubs reboot is fantastic

1 month ago 7 0 1 0

My sinus passages strongly concur.

1 month ago 3 0 0 0

The Feb 21–22, 1971 Mississippi Delta #Tornado Outbreak! Three massive tornadoes and numerous smaller twisters tore across western Mississippi. At least 119 people were killed in Mississippi, with two more deaths in North Carolina. Nearly 1,500 were injured.

Free overview: buff.ly/40CES1p #mswx

2 months ago 6 1 0 0
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The Bears are not building a brand new stadium next to one of the largest oil refineries in the country, where it smells like hell all the time. This is a tragicomic bluff.

2 months ago 5 0 0 0

The smoke and dust on the horizon really ties it all together

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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The view from DGX was a lot worse. Probably a good shot this was a sig tor.

2 months ago 3 0 1 0
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QLCS tornadoes…

2 months ago 7 1 2 0
Video

Join us on Tuesday, February 17 at 1 PM Eastern for our NWA Webinar Series

Our multi-sector panel will be discussing the Enderlin EF5 tornado from the event to the damage survey to the upgrade process

Members: Be on the lookout for the registration link that will be posted/emailed

2 months ago 4 3 0 0

Caleb Williams > Drake Maye

2 months ago 4 0 0 0
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George McCaskey on Bears special season, Packers rivalry, Ben Johnson honoring mom Virginia
George McCaskey on Bears special season, Packers rivalry, Ben Johnson honoring mom Virginia YouTube video by WGN News

Great interview with George McCaskey from Jarrett Payton and WGN.

George calls Green Bay "Team Voldemort" multiple times

2 months ago 11 2 3 0
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🗣️NEW: In collaboration with our SPC/CIWRO
research scientists, the new Severe Hazards Data Viewer is available: spc.noaa.gov/climo/datavi.... On this webpage you can view a 30-yr record for severe storms, wildfires, and lightning in the dynamic and customizable data display.

2 months ago 58 23 2 1

This final product is the result of multiple iterations based on lessons learned for the HWT, social science research, and forecaster feedback. We are excited to bring higher resolution outlook and hazard information to you this spring!

2 months ago 9 2 3 0
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🧵SPC will be introducing new information in Convective Outlooks starting in early March. The following thread will offer some basic information regarding these changes. The TL;DR: outlook categories are not changing! But there will be more info for peak hazard intensity.

2 months ago 61 28 2 4
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Inspired by #AMS2026 severe weather talks? Don't forget to submit an abstract for the 32nd SLS Conference!

2 months ago 4 4 0 0

Thaw baby thaw

2 months ago 1 0 0 0