Inflation rose in March, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict began to feed through to the UK economy. We expect the conflict to put upward pressure on households’ bills in the coming months, but a repeat of 2022 seems unlikely at this stage.
More details here 👇
Growth is muted, inflation pressures are building, and the Middle East conflict is adding new uncertainty. 📉
Our April Economic Deep Dive breaks down what this means for UK businesses.
Exclusive to CBI members🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/cbi...
Business volumes in the financial services sector rebounded in Q1 2026 at the fastest rate since December 1996, according to the latest CBI Financial Services Survey. FS firms expect volumes to grow at a rapid, albeit slightly slower, pace over Q2.
UK GDP was confirmed to have grown by 0.1% q/q in Q4 2025, following growth of 0.1% in Q3. Growth in Q4 was primarily caused by marginal increases in household and government spending, while business investment contracted.
📉 OUTLOOK FOR PRIVATE SECTOR ACTIVTY REMAINS SUBDUED
The CBI’s latest surveys report that firms anticipate another decline in activity in the three months to June, continuing a run of negative expectations going back to the end of 2024.
“The recent spike in global energy prices due to the Iran conflict means that we expect to see renewed inflationary pressures in the near-term."
Check out @martinsartorius.bsky.social’s response to today's inflation data and what it could mean for interest rates: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...
Momentum in the UK retail sector remained poor in March, with annual sales volumes falling sharply and no signs of an imminent recovery. Subdued activity was also evident across the rest of the distribution sector.
Check out the results of our latest DTS 👇
The Bank of England’s MPC voted unanimously to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. The Committee said it would “monitor closely the situation in the Middle East and its impact on global energy supply and energy prices, and the UK inflation outlook”
Ahead of the Spring Forecast, with unemployment rising at a post-pandemic high and profitability under pressure, CBI Chief Economist Louise Hellem calls for government to move away from a “business versus employees” mindset in @observeruk.bsky.social article:
observer.co.uk/news/busines...
For a more detailed look at the latest Distributive Trades Survey and @martinsartorius.bsky.social's view of the results, check out our press release 👇
Retailers reported a sharp drop in annual sales in February, according to the latest DTS, with some mentioning that wet weather conditions weighed on footfall. Sentiment remains gloomy, hitting investment plans and jobs.
Key takeaways from the survey 🧵👇
UK manufacturing output continues to fall, but at a slower pace than last month. Many firms noted that poor sentiment and elevated costs are holding back activity in the sector.
Check out the headline results of the survey 🧵👇
UK #inflation slowed to 3.0% in January, in line with our latest projection. We expect this disinflationary momentum will gain pace in the coming months, reflecting the fading impact of last year’s energy and utility price increases
The Bank of England’s MPC voted 5-4 to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. The majority bloc preferred to keep rates on hold as they wait to see how lower inflation this year will pass through to wage and price-setting.
The UK FS sector saw a gloomy end to 2025, with business volumes falling sharply. Activity is set to pick up in Q1 2026, though.
Check out the key takeaways from the latest CBI FSS 🧵👇
Retailers reported that annual sales volumes fell rapidly in December, as weak consumer confidence contributed to softer trading conditions in the lead-up to Christmas.
Check out the results of our latest Distributive Trades Survey 👇
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to reduce Bank Rate to 3.75%. Today’s reduction was in line with our recent economic forecast, which expects rates to settle at 3.5% early next year.
Check out my response to today’s UK inflation data, which showed a larger-than-expected slowdown to 3.2% in November 👇
Excited to finally share our latest CBI UK Economic Forecast. We expect moderate growth ahead, but, under the surface, household spending and business investment remain subdued.
Check out the key points in the thread below 👇
Conditions in the UK retail and broader distribution sector remain gloomy, with sentiment and annual sales dropping in November. Households continue to be cautious, and Budget-related uncertainty is weighing on capex and hiring.
Check out the key figures from the latest CBI DTS 👇
UK CPI inflation slowed to 3.6% in October, down from its 3.8% peak and in line with consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased further to 3.4% (from 3.5% in September)
UK GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 2025, underperforming consensus estimates of 0.2%. These figures mark a slowdown from the first half of 2025 (0.7% in Q1, and 0.3% in Q2).
The minutes from today's vote make it pretty clear that Governor Bailey has become the "swing voter" between the hawk and dove camps within the MPC. This suggests that he'll likely be the decider of whether the next rate cut comes in December or February
The BoE's MPC kept Bank Rate at 4% today, as it waits to see further disinflationary progress.
The Bank's central forecast expects inflation to slow to 2% by H1 2027, based on market expectations that interest rates will fall to a terminal rate of 3.5% in H1 2026.
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Year-on-year retail sales volumes fell at a strong rate in October amid weak consumer confidence and Budget concerns - according to the latest CBI DTS. Retailers expect the 13-month-long downturn to extend into November.
UK inflation came in lower than expected in September (at 3.8%), though it remains well above the BoE's 2% target. We expect inflation to slowly ease in the coming months, but we are unlikely to see a more substantial downshift until the first half of next year
Private sector activity is weak, hiring plans remain soft, and the investment appetite is muted. 📊
Our Q3 Economic Deep Dive helps business leaders cut through the noise on demand, costs & labour markets. 🔍
Exclusive to CBI members🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Activity in the FS sector dropped at its quickest rate in five years in Q3, but firms expect a strong rebound next quarter.
Check out the findings from the survey 👇🧵
September marked the twelfth straight month of falling annual retail sales, according to our latest DTS. Weak demand conditions are weighing on sales, while US tariffs are adding pressure for some retailers.
Check out the results of the survey 👇
