The authors of a Comment article in Nature highlight concerns over adopting AI in meteorology and call on the weather and climate community to set clear standards, starting with agreed data sets, for testing out-of-sample extreme-event predictions objectively. 🧪
New in GRL Large Eddy Simulation of an Entire Tropical Cyclone From Initial Vortex to Maturity Ito et al. 2026
In Geophysical Research Letters, scientists present the first simulation of an entire tropical cyclone, from an initial vortex to maturity, at a very high-resolution (100-meter grid spacing).
🔗 Check it out: buff.ly/85qhRSwhtt
#AGUPubs #Atmosphere #TropicalCyclone
The connection between Rossby waves and extreme weather, as well as their economic and societal impacts, are the main topics of the "2nd Workshop on the Dynamics of Rossby waves, compound extremes and impacts" starting tomorrow at @vuamsterdam.bsky.social, attended by 150+ scientists!! 〰️🇳🇱
Or is it maybe a different wave train that continues, originated by the Rossby wave breaking over the subtropical jet? We noticed a similar dynamics in our WCD paper on circumglobal wave patterns during winter: doi.org/10.5194/wcd-... (Ahmadi-Givi et al. 2014, too: doi.org/10.1002/qj.2...).
The propagation of a Rossby wave train from N America did the rest: as the ridge amplified over the N Atlantic and merged with the anticyclone E of Greenland, the trough originated the deep cut-off low over N Africa.
The wave train is expected to continue its eastward propagation to the Pacific 〰️➿
Why is it happening? Upper-level anticyclones have been present between Greeland and Scandinavia in the last few weeks, and as a result the North Atlantic jet stream has been located more south than usual. This means that Atlantic cyclones can enter more easily into the Mediterranean (NAO-).
The strong pressure gradient between a cut-off cyclone over N Africa and a cold anticyclone over eastern Europe will lead in the next few days to very strong SE winds and heavy precipitation over southern Italy and Spain. The whole western Mediterranean will feel it! 🌀⛈️🌬️🌊
Plots: charts.ecmwf.int
In only 8 days, it is EGU26 submission deadline! 🚨
If your work involves Rossby waves, jet streams and extreme weather/climate events, consider submitting your abstract to the "Atmospheric Rossby Waves and Jet Dynamics" session! 🌬️〰️🌀
Invited speaker this year: Dr. Philipp Breul (University of Köln)
We also computed analogs focusing only on the impacted region, but the large-scale circulation pattern was quite different from the event, so much that one wonders if it was still the same event.
Thanks for the shoutout!! In our case we showed that including information about the position of the low-level cyclone helped to improve precipitation in the analogs, probably because the moisture-bearing low-level flow was more constrained.
An interesting new project about the physical and dynamical processes behind extreme windstorms in present and future climate 🌬 at @unirdg-artcol.bsky.social
Consider applying if you are interested!
"Sycophancy essentially means that the model trusts the user to say correct things,” says Jasper Dekoninck, a data science PhD student at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich".
Cette carte est unique au monde. Après plusieurs mois de modélisation, AgroClimat2050 dévoile une 1ère mondiale : la biogéographie future (c’est-à-dire l’aire de répartition) de l’une des 🍎 les + consommées au monde (Golden) grâce à un modèle agroclimatique qui n'a pas d'équivalent en Europe.
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Storm Boris hit central Europe with extreme precipitation in September 2024: how will this event look like in a warmer climate? 🌧🌡
Many different, but equally correct answers can be given! Discover the nuances in our new work, now in open discussion at
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
A question about causality: are the oceans intensifying heat inland, or are they warming as a result of the same circulation inducing heat over land? The second pathway is clear, the first not immediately obvious as sea temperature is less than land air temperature.
Esto no es un video del tifón, es un viejo video de una tormenta.
Bref coup de chaud mardi&mercredi associé a une dépression "pompe a chaleur" au large du Portugal #PlumeDeChaleur, puis probable mise en place d'un très puissant #DomeDeChaleur (fort anticyclone) pour la fin du moins de Juin avec persistance de chaleur extrême (Sud 🇫🇷).
Effrayant mais pas surprenant!
Yes and indeed these bullet points about inertia are nowhere to be found in the English version of Red Electrica.
Still interesting, however, that everything seems to have started from a solar power plant... and the exact cause not been found yet.
Interestingly yes, it seems. This is an excerpt from the conclusions (in Spanish, but I think the first sentence is still understandable).
Under pressure from the Trump administration, the National Science Foundation (NSF), a $9 billion agency funding scientific research that has made America great, has canceled over a thousand grants and slowed new funding. That's just the beginning and will get way worse unless Congress intervenes.
Dear weather and climate dynamics enthusiasts, an exciting session with 24 contributions (orals+posters) awaits you at EGU25 **tomorrow**, Monday 28.05, from 14 to 18 in rooms M1 and X5.
Hope to see many of you there at the "Atmospheric Rossby Waves and Jet Dynamics" session! 🌬️〰️🌀
An incredible view of a dust storm charging south across Mexico.
Première #galerne (coup de vent brutal sur Pays Basque/Sud Landes) ce soir 18 Avril autour de 19h avec rafales locales proches de 100km/h.
Renversement/renforcement extrêmement rapide des vents au passage d'un front orageux après belle journée de chauffage (Température ~25°C dans le Sud-Ouest)
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Doppler radars for tornado and severe weather rapid warnings, hurricane hunters' flights for improved track and intensity forecasts, weather and climate models used by many stakeholders...
NOAA excellence and contribution to society are under threat. Full support to it and to @ametsoc.org effort!
You are welcome :) it is algebra-based but very insightful. And free, also for your students :)
In case you need to deepen more specific topics just let me know, and I can easily refer to more advanced tomes.
One of a meteorologist’s biggest pet peeves is “my app says it’ll be ____”. Weather apps can miss so many details that a meteorologist will know.
Let’s use tomorrow in NYC — my app says it’ll be 78 degrees but rainy. But is that the full story? Spoiler alert… no, it’s not!
From life-saving weather warnings and cancer treatments to tech breakthroughs, federally funded science drives progress. In an open letter, the AMS urges strong federal science funding to ensure our future.
More: bit.ly/4j6rQGZ
In Svizzera si puoʻ essere un vero "Eidgenosse" (un "confederato") o magari più informalmente un "Bünzli" 🇨🇭
🧵: I am getting texts on what scientists should do in this perilous and scary moment. My advice: your biggest power is to organize through your professional societies. A few ideas -
