New question on @metaculus.bsky.social Despite political turmoil, major protests in France are relatively unlikely during the last months of 2026. Demonstrations will happen, but the Ministry of Interior rarely certifies a turnout of 600k+ participants

www.metaculus.com/questions/40...

January 1, 2024: a very specific iteration of the Mickey Mouse character entered the public domain, and it seemed like a huge deal. Now, the release of Sora 2 makes it look like eons have passed since then, as OpenAI has gone completely berserk on copyright laws

If anyone builds it, does everybody die? And, most importantly, what would be the expected human cost, in lives, of banning advanced AI development?

There's a sprawling mess of AI benchmarks and so little signal is coming out of them. We need a benchmark of AI benchmarks to identify which are useful, which are worthless, and those that are complete BS

An image of people gathered around a glowing crystal ball emitting black smoke in St. Peter's Square, Vatican City, while white smoke rises from a chimney above the Sistine Chapel in the background.

"Once every death of a Pope" is an Italian saying to describe the rarest events. Conclaves are infrequent, cardinals unknown, and election odds of the Papabili given by obscure Vaticanist pundits. Prevost's "unexpected" election isn't surprising: Papal forecasts are mostly vibes.

Italy spent €650 million on a migrant detention center in Albania that's now... a dog shelter? 🐶 My latest Substack post dives into this spectacular failure of populist immigration policy.

404futurenotfound.substack.com/p/italys-650...

RFI Blog - RFI's Best Forecasters of 2024 We are pleased to share our Best of 2024, a list recognizing forecasters who consistently raised the bar for accuracy and engagement this past season.

Excited to continue with the RAND Forecasting Initiative Pro Team in 2025! Grateful for the 2024 recognition and eager to dive into another year of strengthening evidence-based decisions through forecasting

www.randforecastinginitiative.org/rfi-blog/bes...

Sharing my forecasts for @astralcodexten.com.web.brid.gy's ACX 2025 Prediction Contest, hosted by @metaculus.bsky.social. Interested to hear your thoughts and predictions.

"Every decision that we make is a forecast. Superforecasting is a process to get to the best possible forecast and therefore to get to the best possible decision." Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment on the 3 Takeaways podcast