Advertisement · 728 × 90

Posts by Kevin O’Neill

I don’t have jupyterlab installed on any of the machines I use to run jekyll, which makes me think that windows is trying to use jupyterlab for some reason when it shouldn’t

2 days ago 0 0 0 0

huh, strange- you should be able to use any code editor you want to edit the source md/html files, run “bundle exec jekyll serve” in the terminal from the main directory, & copy the printed url (localhost:<port_number>) into your browser to view the site

2 days ago 0 0 1 0

can confirm that installing ruby/Jekyll is usually the hardest part of this process, especially on Windows machines. but it should work with the right setup- without toying with your computer the best I can say is to try out different install procedures and see what works for you. good luck!

2 days ago 0 0 1 0

the tutorial is focused on starting a new website based on a template/theme, but if you want your website exactly the same, there’s nothing stopping you from just copying all of your HTML/assets into a git repository

2 days ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
How To Build a Free Academic Website with Jekyll and GitHub pages!

if you’re OK doing a little bit of programming, it’s actually not too bad to build it yourself! @khoudary.bsky.social made this comprehensive tutorial as a part of my methods series at Duke:

dibsmethodsmeetings.github.io/academic-web...

2 days ago 2 0 3 0

my cat and I both really enjoyed this fantastic interview on animal/AI sentience! in it, @birchlse.bsky.social grapples with so many difficult & pressing questions while making room for genuine progress to be made

4 days ago 5 0 0 0
Preview
On the tension between liberalism and animal rights My friend and comrade Jonathan Birch has gifted me with another guest post. The first of his, which I also enjoyed, can be found here . I ...

This is a noteworthy specific instance of a more general tension I wrote about last year and continue to think about: sootyempiric.blogspot.com/2025/09/on-t...

6 days ago 7 1 0 1

The first few articles in this collection are now published, including ours. I look forward to reading all. Our piece is not open access because of the ridiculous fees but the preprint linked at the end of the quoted thread (will link again below) is the accepted version of our commentary.

1 week ago 47 9 4 0
Advertisement
Preview
Plural Causes Abstract. Causal selection is the process underlying our intuition that an outcome happened because of a given event, or that an event is the cause of an outcome. When a forest catches fire after a li...

People sometimes say that an outcome was caused by two things. We might say Amy got sick because

(a) There was cilantro in the soup

*and*

(b) Amy is allergic to cilantro

Beautiful new theory of causal selection from @tadegquillien.bsky.social that explains why we sometimes select two causes

2 weeks ago 33 11 0 0
Ordinal Modeling

Friendly reminder that ordinal values admit an ordering, but no notion of distance. Without a notion of distance even the concept of linear models is ill-defined. Please do not use ordinary least squares to analyze ordinal data.

For gratuitous discussion see betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt....

2 weeks ago 37 6 2 1
Post image

The Causality in Cognition Lab -- a supportive, bluesky-colored team -- is looking for a predoc to join us! Here are infos about the lab (cicl.stanford.edu) and the position (careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/iriss-p...). The application deadline is May 1st.

Please share, thank you 🙏

2 weeks ago 62 36 2 0

Guest, O., Blokpoel, M., & van Rooij, I. (2026). What the func? Multiple Realizability need not be Vague. Zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

2 weeks ago 30 12 1 0

anytime! I’m a big fan of your work- really helped me shape my thinking during grad school 🤓

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0

it’s hard to overstate how important this is for quantitative research (especially psychology/neuroscience)- computing individual-level stats independently often robs you of hard earned statistical power. highly recommended reading *both* of these wonderful blog posts!

2 weeks ago 19 4 2 0

Metacognition ppl, check out this upgraded hmetad package for estimating metacognitive metrics (e.g., M-ratio)!

☑️More efficient
☑️Easier to implement
☑️Comprehensive documentation
☑️New non-confounded measure of metacognitive bias (meta-delta)

I’ve just applied this model to my data - working nicely!

3 weeks ago 8 3 0 0
Bayesian Data Analysis course - Aalto 2025 – Bayesian Data Analysis course

I'm looking for a post-doc to help organize Bayesian Data Analysis course avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A... (200 students) and to do research on Bayesian workflow users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... at Aalto www.aalto.fi/en, Finland. Background in Bayes needed. Up to five year contract possible.

3 weeks ago 49 26 1 0
Advertisement
Preview
Anchoring the anchor: judgments of both items assimilate in item-based anchoring Anchoring is a prominent judgment bias which causes people’s estimates of uncertain quantities to assimilate towards recently encountered values. Here…

Out now in Cognitive Psychology, paper spearheaded by @davidyoung-psych.bsky.social showing that questions like "Does a torch cost more or less than a laptop?" can generate mutual anchoring effects: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

3 weeks ago 14 6 0 1
Post image

If you use GitHub (especially if you pay for it!!) consider doing this *immediately*

Settings -> Privacy -> Disallow GitHub to train their models on your code.

GitHub opted *everyone* into training. No matter if you pay for the service (like I do). WTH

github.com/settings/cop...

3 weeks ago 2063 1508 91 136
APA PsycNet

since there are no hard rules, I think the papers on Bayesian workflow/prior predictive checks are the most helpful imo. for cog sci, this paper is nice:

psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/...

see also this great (free) textbook:
bruno.nicenboim.me/bayescogsci/...

3 weeks ago 8 0 1 0

not to say that it wasn’t a lot of work, I had just assumed going in that there would be a lot more I would have to manage on my own

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

idk I felt that @hadley.nz & the devtools ecosystem with pkgdown/github actions really made things smooth for me! most of the corrections I had to make were smaller things like \donttest vs \dontrun and example runtime

3 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

Exciting work by @kevingoneill.github.io to extend / rewrite the HMetad toolbox in R and STAN 🥳

We supercharge meta-d modeling within a bayesian regression framework, wrapped in a user-friendly R package with bespoke plotting tools (+ a new principled measure of metacognitive bias, meta-delta!)

🧠🧪

4 weeks ago 29 8 0 0

I’ve been meaning for a while to do a deep dive on RPFs, which also seem like a promising solution

4 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

yeah we should definitely talk sometime! we designed this measure specifically with your optimality paper in mind- it is not a “true” measure of bias in that zero does not reflect an unbiased observer, but we think it nevertheless allows you to make useful comparisons

4 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

we really hope that this package can be useful for the metacognition community at large, so please share to any researchers that might be interested!

1 month ago 3 0 0 0

another neat feature is that we have implemented a new measure of metacognitive bias that (unlike mean confidence) is independent from task-level performance and metacognitive sensitivity. we have a paper on this measure in progress so stay tuned!

1 month ago 6 1 2 0
Advertisement
Post image Post image

one thing I'm particularly happy about is the ability to plug in arbitrary signal distributions- for example, we allow for metacognitive signal detection with the Gumbel-min distribution (cc @singmann.bsky.social)

osf.io/preprints/ps...

1 month ago 2 0 1 0
Post image Post image

beyond a *ton* of efficiency upgrades 🚀, the package allows for arbitrary hierarchical structure, easy interfacing to other packages in the Stan ecosystem, simple computation of model-implied estimates (e.g., mean confidence, type 1/type 2 ROCs), and a bunch of other cool features

1 month ago 1 0 1 0

for anyone unfamiliar with Steve's toolbox, the point of these models is to allow independent estimation of task-level psychological factors (i.e., stimulus sensitivity and response bias) from metacognitive factors (e.g., metacognitive sensitivity and bias)

see this paper for reference:

1 month ago 1 0 1 0