But we've always had this electoral system, so you can't use it to explain change...

There of course are these reports:

Numerous ships making the break for the Strait of Hormuz this evening have made abrupt U-turns and are heading back towards the Persian Gulf.

Over a dozen ships have already turned back.

Did we not understand this?

Book title?

Danny Citrinowicz

What?? Without those funds MCC won't be able to host Rob Schneider any longer!

Urea will tell us more than the flights of fancy in oil futures I suspect

Szeged for the win! My first home away from home in the 1980s. "Pol Pot County," the wags called it, because of the local party leadership.

Love seeing the Iran experts on Twitter deleting their takes from yesterday. Forever correct

He's the president we need!

Brent is spiking up as well

I know 😞

Here he is tonight. Working hard to end his War in Iran and make life more affordable for Americans like he promised.

This is really bad. Forget about gas and diesel prices what about fertilizer and other petrochemical inputs?

Oh and he deleted this.

I'm going to keep posting this to remind myself that experts are no more immune to self-delusion than anyone else. Anyone who's read Tetlock would know this. To be fair I posted this earlier today because it seemed so not in keeping with what was unfolding.

Vance: We have not reached for agreement. They have chosen not to accept our terms.

God damn it.

I miss this America

🤦

I don't want to live in a world where the United States tries to negotiate with Iran over a partnership where both sides would engage in rent-seeking--or if you prefer highway robbery--in the Persian Gulf.

This is what passes for negotiations.

Iranians are a no show?

Started/going, Sohrab Ahmari edition

Saudi Arabia says attacks cut oil output and East-West Pipeline flow Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom's oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per ​day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday, citing an official source ‌at the Ministry of Energy.

Saudi Arabia says attacks cut oil output and East-West Pipeline flow reut.rs/4t0PU33

Filled up my car at Costco today before the oil markets realize they’ve been had.

Reality returns to punch markets in the mouth

But the situation is persisting...how can gas drop in a day when supplies, even future supplies, are the same?

A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE TONIGHT My son needs lunch, and I have to put his backpack together, but a whole civilization will die tonight, so I'm wondering if they've closed their schools. Like, a snow day, maybe, except instead of snow it's "keep your children home so if you die, you die together" — instead of "well open back up once the plows have cleared" it's "we don't know if we'll be here tomorrow, hold your babies tight." It's just "talk" I'm told, which I've been told before. "It's how the president makes his deals." But I've never heard anyone talk about other human beings this way, and I'm not certain I can look my son in the eyes if we all agree to stomach it one more time. A civilization will die tonight, but as I zip up his backpack and kiss him off to school I think: if this is what we call leadership then I'm not entirely sure ours isn't already dead. @michaelfdubois Mukad A QuBoy @michacifdubois

Brutal.