Here's some polling the other parties should be very worried about.

substack.com/home/post/p-...

How the Green Party takes London (and other places too). Polling suggests tactical voting is popular in the capital, but also that it's mostly going in the wrong direction.

ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/how-the-gr...

The Green Party had a 14-point lead in London in first preferences in a ranked preference poll last month. Such polls strip out tactical voting considerations and show us who people actually would prefer to vote for.

The London subset of my ranked preference poll from last month. ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Ew...

ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/how-the-gr...

Sorry if @samfr.bsky.social missed this before making his predictions.

How the Green Party takes London (and other places too). Polling suggests tactical voting is popular in the capital, but also that it's mostly going in the wrong direction.

It might not be that marginal. It's possible Labour are miles behind in public opinion and when voting intention catches up with that it will leave them completely broken.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

It's only not biased if they do it for every other major party while standing in front of number 10 Downing Street.

Are they going to do that? Most probably not.

Poll summary tables available here: ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Ew...

A party that over half a country would rank last should not be able to govern that country. We need electoral reform to a ranked preference voting system so that all our rankings matter.

Just to be clear, the results of the YouGov poll I commissioned showed the Green Party as the first preference of 26% of respondents, and Reform UK as the last preference of 51% of respondents (weighted).

Standard voting intention polls aren't showing you the full picture.

My analysis of the 2024 result: The powers that be bottled it then, and I think they might be bottling it now.

You have ambition for the party. How much does the senior staff have?

Will you win 10% of council seats next month when you should win half of them?

substack.com/@sprintforpr...

How the Green Party takes London (and other places too). Polling suggests tactical voting is popular in the capital, but also that it's mostly going in the wrong direction.

Sometimes I worry you're not actually going for the title because the management team doesn't have the bottle for the Champions League.

You could win the Champions League as well.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

4 targets in 2024 was a major mistake of underambition. Don't let 2026 repeat that.

How the Green Party takes London (and other places too). Polling suggests tactical voting is popular in the capital, but also that it's mostly going in the wrong direction.

Is the Green Party ready to take London?

I'm not sure they appreciate the position they're in, or I'm not sure why they'd want to keep their position a secret.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

It says to me

"I am currently viewing real estate investment opportunities in hell. Vote Reform UK, and I'll sort you out with a lovely pit-side semi with a splendid view of eternal suffering. It's what you're into. It's what I'm into. Vote Reform UK."

He does photograph well.

How the Green Party takes London (and other places too). Polling suggests tactical voting is popular in the capital, but also that it's mostly going in the wrong direction.

It would be a good idea to run another poll showing that you're the most popular progressive party in the country by around 10 percentage points (14 points in London).

£650 is 1.3% of that £50k so it shouldn't really require a debate.

Just do it already.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Either Labour or Reform UK will be in crisis this year. If Labour embrace electoral reform, Reform UK will implode. If they don't, tactical votes will flip Green in vast numbers.

I did some polling research looking to strip out tactical voting intention.

Greens are 10 points ahead of Labour in first preferences in England.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Sorry if you all missed him calling us pussies. The Labour rump have a certain vibe about them.

Oh well.

Poor lad. Sometimes Kermit gifs are just a step too far 😔

a man with long hair and a beard is drinking a cup of coffee ALT: a man with long hair and a beard is drinking a cup of coffee

Man 1 presents original polling research.

Man 2 ignores research, the conclusions of which he does not like, and argues against it based on local vibes.

Man 2 accuses Man 1 of having his head in the sand.

Noted.

Either Labour or Reform UK will be in crisis this year. If Labour embrace electoral reform, Reform UK will implode. If they don't, tactical votes will flip Green in vast numbers.

In a ranked preference poll in March, they were 10 points behind the Greens in first preferences in England.

If tactical voting intention flips Green, they are in trouble veeeeery quickly.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

kermit the frog and miss piggy are kissing each other in a muppet show . ALT: kermit the frog and miss piggy are kissing each other in a muppet show .

Maybe if Labour types paid attention to polling evidence and people who know about politics, they wouldn't currently be 14 points behind the Green Party in London first preferences.

Good day to you, sir!

Have you read the article? If you haven't read the article with the original evidence in it, and you're arrogantly asserting it's conclusions are wrong without any evidence presented, you are a large part of what is wrong with the internet.

That shrug guy suggests you've done this before as well 🤨

What does "Noted" mean then, in response to a question? That's not normal conversation.

Are you an AI bot? Some of your chat is really weird.

You haven't read the article yet?

kermit the frog is talking to mr. bean and says " bring it in ... there ya go " ALT: kermit the frog is talking to mr. bean and says " bring it in ... there ya go "

The party's over lads. You gave it a good go. Let's make the transition a bit more dignified, shall we?

...I read your unevidenced assertion. Did you read my original polling research?

I have done original research that shows that Greens tactically voting Labour has greater potential to let the Tories back in than Labour supporters tactically voting Green due to the enormous gap in true support between the two parties in the capital...

Hi Poli,
First things first, have you read the linked article? It shows that the Green Party had a 14-point lead over Labour in London on people's first preferences in March.
Explain to me how Labour is the best tactical vote in the majority of the city on that evidence.