“Our model is too dangerous to release.”

Also:

“We’re spending hundreds of millions backing politicians who oppose regulating AI.”

Anyone who's got a problem with Mamdani is the problem at this point.

No "war", no "war crimes."

Heard somewhere on the interwebs:

“I hope and pray. And I’m not even religious.”

I concur. And as a trader, I don’t even believe in hope.

When the NYT runs “The Long Farewell to Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse,” you at least have to ask whether the burial is getting a bit too unanimous.

substack.com/@musingtrade...

Same as last week: expect gaps, violent intraday swings, expensive option premiums. Size down. Respect stops. Be careful out there.

​Thanks for reading.

🙏🏻🙏🏻👊🍻

This is full risk-off: stocks, precious metals, even bonds are down (the latter being a scary development, reflecting a potential reversal in Fed expectations.)

Oil, on the other hand, remains parabolic.

That would leave $SPX roughly 14% below the 7000-ish all-time high, well into correction territory.

Would the geopolitical situation justify that kind of correction? You tell me

Tbh, I’m surprised we’re only about 7% below the highs. Maybe the “nothing ever happens” crowd is right after all?

6700-ish is now resistance because broken support tends to become overhead supply.

​If 6500-ish breaks decisively, that opens up a measured-move target near yet another round, almost too-simple-to-believe number: 6000-ish.

​Uncertainty is higher. Volatility is worse. Momentum is still tsunami-level to the downside.

​6500-ish is support until it isn’t. The 50-week SMA clocks in at 6460-ish, making it the last line of defense before things get structurally ugly.

The Saturday Morning Perfect Hindsight Report

​What's there to say?

​Last week, we said 6500-ish was crucial support.

This week, we closed at 6500-ish.

h/t: Beardo on the other app.

True.
But EMH cultists beg to differ.
Their loss.

I'd rather just buy the bottom instead of having to dollar cost average the whole way down.

Unpopular opinion: Dollar cost averaging is a scam.

4/4
Base case: chop with downside risk until proven otherwise. A decisive weekly close below 6700 opens 6650 / 6550 / 6200. A weekly close back above 6800 would help stabilize the structure.

3/4
Technical damage is piling up. That short-term weekly moving average — the green line that caught the falling knives a couple weeks ago — failed. Price sliced through it and closed below it at 6738. 6700 is now the line in the sand.

2/4
Add a dangerous Middle East war and oil back above $90, and the “range violence” we’ve been tracking just took a darker turn. This isn’t simple digestion anymore. It’s headline risk getting priced in.

1/4
Not an ideal way to end the week. $SPX closed near the bottom of the weekly candle, with $VIX near 30 and — more ominously — at the lower end of the all-important 6700–6800 support zone.

Still: price is price.

Same range violence:

7000 rejected again; 6700–6800 still the floor.

Base case: chop 6700–7000.

Weekly close >7000 = breakout.

Weekly close <~6700 = breakdown (watch ~6650/~6550 next).

$SPX weekly:

Weekend recaps used to be “safe” because markets were closed.

That was then.

This weekend the U.S. + Israel struck Iran, so gap risk is real into Monday. By the open, the storyline may have changed radically.

Wall Street checking its exposure to private credit.

If it's eaten by the consumers it's deflationary, though.
So all in all, over some cunningly-chosen period, it's a wash.
If you know what I mean...

If it's eaten by the consumers it's deflationary, though.
So all in all, over some cunningly-chosen period, it's a wash.
If you know what I mean...

When did “process” become “workflow”?

Not saying the AI overlords did it, but… if you wanted to make everything sound automatable, this is exactly how you’d start!

#GSR (Great Semantic Replacement)

Moat is just a polite way to say monopoly.

🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
I'm going to be posting much more here from now on.
Can use all the help I can get!
🤣👊🍻

🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
I'm going to be posting much more here from now on.
Can use all the help I can get!
🤣👊🍻

It's adjacent.

What does it tell you that the disruptors (OpenAI, Anthropic) are private, while the “disruptees” (most SaaS) are public?

No wrong answers.