Conflict and Consequences: The Global Impact of the New Middle East War | International Crisis Group The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is approaching the close of its second week, with no end yet in sight. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of its effects on peace, security and economic stabil...

NEW COMMENTARY | The Global Impact of the New Middle East War

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is approaching its second week with no end yet in sight. Our experts offer a 360-degree view of its impact around the world.

www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...

A Sprawling Middle East War Explodes | International Crisis Group A joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation against U.S. military assets, Israel and other U.S. allies, has engulfed much of the Middle East in conflict. Crisis Group experts ...

Where does the region stand a week into the war? Read our @CrisisGroup.org 360 degree view, with colleagues’ insights from Iran, Israel, the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Turkey and Egypt.

www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...

“Israel is hammering Iran. [But] the question is, how long can we go on like this? What is the endgame?”

Our analyst Mairav Zonszein reports from Tel Aviv as the U.S., Israel and Iran enter a perilous new phase of direct confrontation.

www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...

The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War | International Crisis Group In nearly five decades of mutual antagonism, the U.S. and Iran have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to avertin...

NEW STATEMENT | The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War

Both have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence.

www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...

Iraqi Politics in Ferment after Trump’s Broadside | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Lahib Higel assesses the reasons behind the U.S. president’s swipe at a former Iraqi prime minister and how political forces are responding

NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Iraqi Politics in Ferment after Trump’s Broadside

@lahibhigel.bsky.social assesses the reasons behind the U.S. president’s swipe at a former Iraqi prime minister and how political forces are responding.
www.crisisgroup.org/anb/middle-e...

The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.

In the new @dissentmag.bsky.social issue, out today, @yguichaoua.bsky.social and I diagnose the crisis of conflict studies in a piece that is part intellectual history, part personal experience.

What was conflict studies for? And what can its travails tell us about how wars have changed?

How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela | International Crisis Group The U.S. operation grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe, not least due to subsequent talk of seizing Greenland. But several governments have t...

NEW COMMENTARY | How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela

The U.S. operation grabbing President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe. @crisisgroup.org offers a 360-degree view of the reactions and their implications.

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela | International Crisis Group The Trump administration is dispatching military assets to the Caribbean and sinking boats it claims ferry drugs. While it appears the deployment is part of a plan to depose Venezuelan President Nicol...

‘Risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be downplayed. The U.S. decision to go it alone has sent a chilling message across the region.’

Our recent statement explains why Washington should be wary of the fallout following events in Venezuela.

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

The World’s Shame in Gaza | International Crisis Group Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war regardless of “day after” questions – lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life ...

NEW STATEMENT | The World’s Shame in Gaza

Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war, lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life in the strip beyond hope of recovery.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

ONLINE EVENT | What Next in the U.S.-Israeli Confrontation with Iran

July 1 | 9.30am Washington DC | 3.30pm Brussels
w/ @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Naysan Rafati, @mairavz.bsky.social, @lahibhigel.bsky.social

Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

It’s Not That Easy to Lift Sanctions on Syria Other presidents have struggled with political and logistical obstacles when trying to effect a rollback.

My latest in @foreignpolicy.com. Trump has promised to lift sanctions on Syria. I explain why it's not that easy to fully end the sanctions—and their effects.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/02/t...

Europe is finally finding its voice on the Gaza Strip. A better and braver friend would have spoken out earlier and louder, but what matters now is that Europe acts. There is much that European leaders can do as @crisisgroup.org sets out here ⬇️

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

The UN Dodges a Diplomatic Breakdown over Sanctions | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar on UN Security Council votes on sanctions on South Sudan and enforcement of Libya’s arms embargo

✍️ My quick take for @crisisgroup.org on how last week's UNSC votes on South Sudan and Libya reflect on the broader sanctions debate at the UN.

www.crisisgroup.org/global-south...

The PKK’s Decision to Disband May Offer a Historic Chance at Peace | International Crisis Group More than forty years after it formed with the goal of creating an independent Kurdish state, the PKK has said it will stop its armed struggle against Türkiye. How Ankara responds will help determine ...

The PKK decision to disband is a huge deal for Türkiye and prospectively well beyond. But getting to peace will take additional effort. New @crisisgroup.org statement reflects terrific work by @berkaymandiraci.bsky.social, @lahibhigel.bsky.social, @dibanigar.bsky.social & Dareen Khalifa.

Continued Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Risk Bolstering Hizbollah | Crisis Group Crisis Group expert David Wood on the fall-out from Israel’s latest attack on Beirut.

‘These attacks risk undermining Lebanon’s new political leadership, quite possibly to Hizbollah’s benefit.’

The attack on Beirut marked a serious escalation in Israel’s post-war military posture.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Will Trump Borrow from “War on Terror” Playbook in Bombing Cartels? | Crisis Group Crisis Group’s Brian Finucane on parallels between the war on terror and the U.S. Mexico policy

NEW:

My thoughts for @crisisgroup.org on the Trump administration's framing of migration and organized crime as "terrorism" and as a military threat, and how this may be laying the groundwork for US military action in Mexico.

www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading | Crisis Group After the Sudanese army recaptured Khartoum, many hoped that Sudan’s war would start winding down. Instead, as it enters its third year, the conflict is escalating and likely to expand in scope, unles...

If Sudan’s war merely concerned Sudanese, its course might be easier to predict. What’s clear however is that heavy outside involvement makes escalation more likely. So here’s some de-escalatory ideas which reps of states that back the belligerents could lead on.

www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...

ONLINE EVENT | What’s Driving the Red Sea Crisis and How to Stop It?

8 April 2025 | 4pm Sanaa | 3pm Brussels | 9am Washington

Registration ⬇️

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Calming the Red Sea’s Turbulent Waters | Crisis Group Fresh exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis, on one side, and the U.S. and Israel, on the other, have put Red Sea security back in the spotlight. Big challenges lie ahead in stopping this cycle an...

The Red Sea has become a flashpoint of global competition, with military build-up outpacing diplomacy.

As tensions rise between the US, Iran, and regional actors, curbing naval escalation and addressing the root conflicts in Gaza and Yemen are essential.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Inmates remain in a cell at the Counter-Terrorism Confinement Centre (CECOT) mega-prison, in Tecoluca, El Salvador on January 27, 2025. AFP / Marvin Recinos

NEW Q&A | President Trump has used a 1798 law to deport alleged members of the criminal network Tren de Aragua to El Salvador, in whose notorious prisons they are now held.

We explain the group’s origins and the policy’s potential consequences.

www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

Upending the International Order Through both word and deed, President Trump has been aggressively undermining the rule of law internationally.

Undermining the rule of law internationally is self-defeating, writes @bcfinucane.bsky.social (@crisisgroup.org)

He writes on why the prohibition on the use of force and U.S. alliances matter and what should happen next:

www.justsecurity.org/109537/upend...

How Israel’s Overreach in Syria May Backfire | Crisis Group After the Assad regime was overthrown, Israel immediately began treating the new authorities in Damascus as a potential security threat, taking a series of aggressive military actions. This approach r...

A call for 🇮🇱 to rethink its Syria strategy or risk pushing country toward one of the very scenarios it says it wants to avoid: fostering chaos that Iran &/or jihadist militants could exploit, or nudging new govt in Damascus closer to Ankara.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

@mairavz.bsky.social

The interim authorities in Syria have adopted a new 'constitutional declaration', which is the equivalent of an interim constitution. This is another major step in the transition and is deserving of attention. I summarise its contents and offer some analysis in the thread below

What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria? Hold Your Fire! · Episode

📰Sunday extras!

"What does the PKK ceasefire mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?" with Berkay Mandıracı, @lahibhigel.bsky.social and Dareen Khalifa. [1/5]

In unsettled times, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to shake things up further. But how does a disrupter deal with an already disrupted world?

Welcome to an unpredictable 2025 in association with @foreignpolicy.com

www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...

In this 360-degree view, @crisisgroup.org experts offer a brief survey of the discussions in Turkey, Iran, Russia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, the oPt, Gulf Arab states, the US and at the UNSC about the latest developments in and around Syria. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Why Did Iran Allow Bashar al-Assad’s Downfall? Tehran may have assumed there would be opportunities to exploit in Syria’s likely instability in the future.

My colleague @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social captures perfectly what prompted Iran to intervene in defence of the Assad regime in Syria in 2012, and why it so abruptly abandoned him:

carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

NEW STATEMENT | Priorities after Assad’s Fall

At last, Syria is free of the despised Assad regime. The long-suffering Syrian people deserve respite and a chance to rebuild the country on their own terms, with help not interference from outside.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Published minutes ago and may remain up to date for several minutes more! Read it before the rebels seize your computer!

Amidst further territorial losses of the Syrian regime, the Iraqi Shiite Coordination Framework (incl. all major Shia parties except for Sadr) has reportedly unanimously decided not to support Assad military. Meanwhile, the Iraqi resistance groups in eastern Syria have retreated to Iraq.