I find it interesting how many people think mortgage rates won't up from here.
Despite $100 a barrel oil, total unknowns in the Middle East, and the fact that mortgage rates are historically HIGHEST in the months of May and June.
Seems strange to think we're out of the woods.
Despite the war's fiscal costs, increased Treasury supply, and surging energy prices, bond yields are barely moving higher.
We are either in denial, overly optimistic, or labor is much worse than we think.
I guess be happy if you need a mortgage and have job security.
Good to hear people are living again.
Bond yields and by extension mortgage rates seem to like a ceasefire and an open Strait.
Just remember this can turn at a moment's notice.
And that prior to the conflict, we had a national average sub-6% 30-year fixed.
If mortgage rates have settled in at current levels, and are expected to be flat or even lower in coming years...
Why always the 30-year fixed? Rates low? 30-year fixed. Rates high? 30-year fixed!
Btw, this particular lender's 30-year fixed is priced at 6.375%.
This echoes my thoughts on mortgage rates.
Two things are working against them at the moment.
Seasonality (they are HIGHEST in spring/summer) and overoptimism RE: the Middle East.
It's why I think they climb higher again before we see real relief later in the year.
If you believe in history/trends/data, mortgage rates will get worse in May and June.
Then stay elevated throughout summer...
And eventually come down in winter. Hang in there!
We've seen this movie before...
I thought so too, but I think prospective buyers have been waiting so long that they don't want to give up now.
Top mortgage lenders of 2025...
Of note, UWM #1 for third year in a row.
No home builder's captive lenders in the top 10.
And former mortgage giant Wells Fargo back in.
Nice move lower today for bond yields.
Should result in 30-year fixed mortgage rates back around ~6.375% or lower.
But they remain about 0.375% above late February lows and the ceasefire appears tenuous.
Actually surprised things haven't already turned higher again...
Wouldn't shock me to see a reversal soon.
It's kind of nuts how well mortgage rates are doing despite oil being over $110 a barrel.
Things could be a lot worse. Perhaps they will get worse...
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell.
Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday.
Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out.”
It's looking like a good day for mortgage rates.
But for them to have a winning week, we need easing tensions in the Middle East.
And weak economic data, including job openings, retail sales, ADP jobs, and BLS on Friday.
Certainly some areas of concern...
Does this factor in AI bubble with oil crisis? Has that happened before?
Better + Coinbase launch a "token-backed mortgage" that allows homebuyers to pledge BTC or USDC to cover down payment.
Borrowers can now obtain a conforming mortgage w/o liquidating assets.
Coinbase One members eligible for rebate of 1% of the mortgage, capped at $10k to cover closing costs.
Which generation is this?
It's funny when mortgage rates go up .50%, everyone says we're doomed.
But when rates fall .50%, everyone says it's actually not a huge difference in payment.
