Fed research finds: Trump tariffs implemented through November 2025 can explain the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category relative to pre-pandemic inflation and contributed to a 0.8% increase in core personal consumption expenditure prices through February 2026
Fed research finds: Trump tariffs implemented through November 2025 can explain the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category relative to pre-pandemic inflation and contributed to a 0.8% increase in core personal consumption expenditure prices through February 2026
China has rapidly overtaken the U.S. in total scientific output - including top journals. Other middle- and low-income countries - India, Russia and Brazil - have also increased their research output, collectively matching the total production of high-income EU countries.
China has rapidly overtaken the U.S. in total scientific output - including top journals. Other middle- and low-income countries - India, Russia and Brazil - have also increased their research output, collectively matching the total production of high-income EU countries.
New QJE paper measures spending flows between 1000s of small groups of consumers and producers, government, rest of the world. Most consumer spending stays domestic, esp in rural, older, less-educated areas->higher fiscal multipliers; targeting "left-behind" groups boosts economy
New QJE paper measures spending flows between 1000s of small groups of consumers and producers, government, rest of the world. Most consumer spending stays domestic, esp in rural, older, less-educated areas->higher fiscal multipliers; targeting "left-behind" groups boosts economy
China has rapidly increased its share of the global market in cars and machine tools, while countries like Germany and Japan have experienced a marked decline.
IMF analysis: Wars cause large, lasting economic losses in affected countries and spillovers to others - often worse than financial crises or natural disasters. Recovery dependent on sustained peace: War contributes to inflationary pressures. Early macro stabilization important.
China has rapidly increased its share of the global market in cars and machine tools, while countries like Germany and Japan have experienced a marked decline.
Link to the IMF analytical chapter on the macroeconomic implications of wars: www.imf.org/-/media/file...
IMF analysis: Wars cause large, lasting economic losses in affected countries and spillovers to others - often worse than financial crises or natural disasters. Recovery dependent on sustained peace: War contributes to inflationary pressures. Early macro stabilization important.
This paper on the Italian output gap controversy in the run-up to the Covid-19 crisis documents the profound disagreement between the European Commission and the Italian government over Italy’s output gap - with major implications for assessing compliance with EU fiscal rules.
This paper on the Italian output gap controversy in the run-up to the Covid-19 crisis documents the profound disagreement between the European Commission and the Italian government over Italy’s output gap - with major implications for assessing compliance with EU fiscal rules.
Source: www.imf.org/-/media/file...
Military spending is rising quickly. In the last five years, roughly half of all countries have increased their defense budgets, while the arms sales of the largest global defense companies have doubled in real terms over the past twenty years.
This is a useful introduction to using Claude code for applied economists, including content on data analysis, web scraping and large datasets.
Data analysis and web scraping: markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-cod...
Large datasets: markusacademy.substack.com/p/large-data...
This is a useful introduction to using Claude code for applied economists, including content on data analysis, web scraping and large datasets.
Budgetkonsolidierung erhöht Arbeitslosigkeit und Einkommensungleichheit. Bremseffekte im Abschwung stärker. Effekte in 🇦🇹 in der Erholung seit 2025 bislang begrenzt. Weitere Konsolidierung sollte sozial ausgewogen sein, um negative Verteilungs-/Beschäftigungseffekte zu minimieren. @aundw.bsky.social
Budgetkonsolidierung erhöht Arbeitslosigkeit und Einkommensungleichheit. Bremseffekte im Abschwung stärker. Effekte in 🇦🇹 in der Erholung seit 2025 bislang begrenzt. Weitere Konsolidierung sollte sozial ausgewogen sein, um negative Verteilungs-/Beschäftigungseffekte zu minimieren. @aundw.bsky.social
Source: www.bis.org/publ/work129...
Supply-side narratives - driven by rising energy prices and supply disruptions - have begun to dominate inflation sentiment in recent weeks.
Inheritance taxes have declined despite rising inherited wealth (~50% of total), which many underestimate. This randomised experiment shows that informing people boosts support by ~30%, mainly by shifting perceptions (luck<->success). Support is higher for taxes on large bequests
