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Posts by Douglas Oxley, PhD

1/n Propaganda doesn't just relate to attitudes, it also relates to how people make sense of events.
We looked at how Russians construed the war in Ukraine in terms of core values, and how these meanings associate with media exposure and intentions to support/oppose the war.
#Ukraine #UkraineWar

1 week ago 2 1 1 0

We need to figure out how to fund the social sciences with private money.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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How a Music Streaming CEO Built an Open-Source Global Threat Map in His Spare Time Frustrated by fragmented war news, Anghami’s Elie Habib built World Monitor, a platform that fuses global data, like aircraft signals and satellite detections, to track conflicts as they unfold.

Frustrated by fragmented war news, Anghami’s Elie Habib built World Monitor, a platform that fuses global data, like aircraft signals and satellite detections, to track conflicts as they unfold. www.wired.com/story/world-...

1 month ago 134 37 4 4

Will the folks contributing open source still be as careful when writing using AI? One of the successes of open source has been that most packages are reliable.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0
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What People Should Actually Be Doing A few weeks ago, I wrote about the pervasive sense that the slow decline of liberalism has sped up considerably but at the same time that it’s not clear what we can do about it.

Actions that may seem small make a big difference. Show up.
open.substack.com/pub/arikohen...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

There’s skill in app design even if you’re just describing it with a vibe language. For enterprise apps, there’s a ton of institutional knowledge required. Will folks want to learn those things? Vibe coding will be great for trivial apps, though.

2 months ago 3 0 0 0
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Thrilled to share our latest paper, out now in Science Advances! We explored the development of cooperative behaviors — fairness, trustworthiness, forgiveness, & honesty —  across five societies, culturally contextualizing them & seeing how they correlate. (1/5) www.science.org/doi/full/10....

2 months ago 127 44 1 3
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Or a person could record their vibe session and replay it with a different AI. I think there’s a reasonable chance that AI provision becomes a commodity. Open source AI models can already do useful things on generally available hardware. You just have to be patient.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

There’s no intrinsic value AND it’s effectively a commodity because there are so many other currencies available. There’s no monetary policy to stabilize it. So why shouldn’t we expect it to float around? The sudden drop could be just an information cascade following a moderate decline.

2 months ago 2 1 0 0

Transparency is the key for election integrity. I’m not sure that’s compatible with our national security institutions.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Highlighting the speaker who stood in front of the Surprise mayor and told him to consider what the Mayor of Ohrdruf must’ve thought before he died by suicide: “He might have thought ‘how is this my fault I had no jurisdiction over this’ maybe he said ‘this site was not subject to local zoning.’”

2 months ago 8782 3825 165 799
Embedded text reads: We must support our rights or lose our character, and with it, perhaps, our liberties. James Monroe U.S. President 1817-1925

Embedded text reads: We must support our rights or lose our character, and with it, perhaps, our liberties. James Monroe U.S. President 1817-1925

Presidents used to say eloquent things. Inspiring even.

2 months ago 61 17 0 0

Trials are needed. Legit ones. For leaders and agents. Otherwise, future authoritarians won’t perceive the personal risk of obviously immoral actions.

2 months ago 3 0 1 0
Screenshot of a TikTok video with error message at top saying “your video is under review and can’t be shared right now.”

Screenshot of a TikTok video with error message at top saying “your video is under review and can’t be shared right now.”

This morning, I recorded a video on TikTok about why DHS’s arguments for the power to enter homes without judicial warrants in immigration cases are bunk.

Nine hours later, TikTok still says my video is “under review,” and can’t be shared.

Well, here’s a link:

georgetown.box.com/v/Vladeck-IC...

2 months ago 10190 4250 459 344
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Justice requires trials. Not just leaving MN, and not just funding changes. Trials for both agents and also for leaders who provoked and lied.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testi

Listen to Powell here.

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

3 months ago 1103 255 59 26

The big issue with AI is that it doesn’t share human values. It will value whatever you ask it to value. Most work involves the values that professionals learn as part of the professional community.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0

Very interesting research. Reminds me of the trade off studied by the Johnson O’Connor Research Foundation between structural visualization and abstract reasoning. Do some people see the car because they think structurally, and others see the strawberry because they think abstractly?

3 months ago 1 0 0 0

We don’t know yet which applications are going to be broadly useful. I think it’s still possible that smaller, cheaper LLMs will end up being the most useful. Both the business cases and the bro-talk are based on magical and wishful thinking right now.

3 months ago 1 0 0 0

Most also don’t get to pick where they live. They go to the team that drafted them.

4 months ago 9 0 1 0

Anytime a meaningful counterfactual is utilized is a step forward. There are better and worse ones, but the contrast illustrates something valuable.

4 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Does Party Trump Ideology? Disentangling Party and Ideology in America | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core Does Party Trump Ideology? Disentangling Party and Ideology in America - Volume 113 Issue 1

I think the "politician issue positions are decisive in elections" crowd needs to reconcile their beliefs with political science evidence finding that positions are mostly downstream of party ID and elite opinion leadership www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

5 months ago 103 16 2 2

The ROI on biking infrastructure is clear. USA cities pay attention.

5 months ago 211 49 8 0
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Congrats on the pub in Science. It’s a big honkin’ deal. You’re going to get a lot of attention, and that’s mostly good.

5 months ago 3 0 0 0
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Chimpanzees rationally revise their beliefs The selective revision of beliefs in light of new evidence has been considered one of the hallmarks of human-level rationality. However, tests of this ability in other species are lacking. We examined...

Are humans really the only rational animals? Our NEW PAPER 🎉 out in @science.org suggests otherwise! In a large collaboration led with my joint first author @hanna-schleihauf.bsky.social, we show that “Chimpanzees rationally revise their beliefs” 🧵

5 months ago 1553 435 159 53

Agree that rational goal seeking is as much used as habit. Another form of choice behavior is reflex. The autonomic nervous system doesn’t give us time to rationally goal seek or engage habitual decision making but it does make quick decisions.

5 months ago 6 0 1 0
Death Star

Death Star

A very offline cousin sent this to fam group chat. This story is breaking containment.

5 months ago 11072 2478 154 178

Here's the thing I don't understand. You can't as much as sneeze near a historic site in Washington without like 14 commissions, councils, and advisory boards giving you the okay. And everybody now is like...yup, fine with us? wtf?

5 months ago 3337 830 196 53