Conclusion: Many homes are sitting on massive pieces of land being taxed not much more than an equivalent home on a small surface area (or even a condo stacked 10 high). Maybe frontage levy should instead be a surface area levy -- or land area ought to carry more weight in property assessment?? End/

But with land/lot size the correlation with assessment value (0.511) is only moderate. Note that I capped the data to only include lot sizes under 50,000 sq-feet (for reference the average River Heights lot is about 5,500 sq-ft) 3/

Not surprising that there's a strong positive correlation at 0.804 for the size of the home (i.e. bigger homes tend to have higher market values). 2/

Some more random analyses.... what is the correlation between assessment value and sq-footage of the home... and sq-footage of the land the home sits on? 1/

Those of you who work in real-estate or property assessment: Let me know your thoughts. End/

I don't know for sure, but it strikes me that property owners whose assessment is higher than the known recent market price of their home might be able to argue for a reduced assessment value. Here is a list of those ~9,600 properties: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

When looking at just those ~20,000 homes with recent sales info, the % difference (in absolute terms) between assessment and market value was about 6.5%. This means some properties saw their assessment fall below the 2025 sale price, but more saw it fall above it. 8/

Here's another way of showing these figures for hybrid homes... comparing the average sales price against the average assessment value for the same market date. The avg assessment is almost always higher than the avg sales price. 7/

And well, not necessarily. Looking at the ~20,000 properties for which sales info is available, we see detached homes and hybrid homes were assessed about 2.0% higher than the actual market price. Condos were the exception with assessment values being generally lower than the known market values. 6/

One thought I had...
The 2027 assessment is intended to reflect estimated market values for 2025. In theory, the properties that sold two-ish years ago (ie. homes for which we have actual market values, not just estimates) should have 2027 assessments that mirror those sales prices... 5/

This boxplot shows the increases across three broad property categories I manually created. "Hybrid homes" includes side-by-sides, row homes and duplexes. Notably, the city has given condos much lower assessment increases than houses at only 8.5% (compared to 12.65 for single-detached homes). 4/

Here are box plots showing the broad distribution of those increases across Winnipeg's real-estate market regions. The read diamonds represents the average assessment increase. 3/

As a general overview, here are neighbourhoods with the greatest assessment increases for single-detached homes. Interesting to see the pretty dramatic variation between neighbourhoods. North Kildonan, St. James and Charleswood are seeing significant increases. 2/

Winnipeg recently proposed re-assessment values for every residential property. On average, properties saw an 11% increase in their assessments.

I merged recent sales records from ~20,000 properties in Winnipeg with assessment data to provide a deep dive into the trends. Here's what I found 1/:

My Winnipeg LIDAR elevation map is complete! It's no wonder that this city floods easily.