I think the war is the riskiest because:
-economic knock-on effects
-deescalation can look like losing (Biden 🇦🇫 withdrawal), bakes a long-term discount into approval
-escalation means more casualties; more casualties drive down approval (Bush 🇮🇶)
-you can deflect more blame on the economy
I also would have accepted “Louise Lucas told me to.”
I put together this "experiment checklist" for the grad students in my experiments class -- practical advice for experimental design. www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lwbco...
I have said this before. Trump's floor isn't 30. It's closer to 15.
the number of servicemembers killed by the 1918 Flu is on par with the number of those killed in combat in WW1.
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one of my favorite parts of the onion infowars saga is how Alex Jones lost his fucking mind when they first bought it,,,,, partly because he didn't know or understand what the onion was
DANGER 🚫 FOUNDATION
Totally unrelated: every social science building I’ve ever been in is full of asbestos.
An empty shelf with hanging label with “the edge of space-time” written on it
Bestseller sold out at my local @chanda.blacksky.app - luckily I pre-ordered.
The thing I didn’t realize is how much Bay Staters spend on lottery tickets. It’s over 1k per person per year.
The lottery one goes so hard!
i'm sorry, are you implying the president might be running a nonprofit organization in a way that's not completely above board?
yeah as a friendly neighborhood cishet i'm very much for companies at least *saying* they're on the side of good as opposed to openly advocating evil because if they just admit to being kind of evil they're most likely extremely evil.
The younguns will be losing their mind over my Pro-Choice curriculum.
Week one, a hero of pro-choice ideology... that's right, guys, it's super-woke icon Ernst Zermelo. Want some more, well good, I'll take them all the way forward to that icon of independence, Paul Cohen.
Nixon was down in the 20s by may of '74, as the scandal deepened due to reveal of the tapes starting in July of '73.
Only Nixon was doing worse, honestly.
New Hampshire shockingly over represented at that meeting…
Is it too obscure to be used ironically? Like if someone had a 🏳️🌈Raytheon🏳️🌈 sticker on their laptop I might assume they have a sense of humor esp bc the people that work there have to call it RTX now
yes, people do not internally know that they are weird and will frequently deny that their situation or community has any implicit social rules...
...while also being like "did you notice how they break their egg on the large end? they must be shunned."
also to be clear this is 100% a regulatory capture move. Karp presumably did not vote for Trump in 2016, 2020, or 2024.
turns out...
If I ever see a laptop with a PalanGenderQueer sticker on it in the wild it's on sight
Interesting take from Dave Karpf, Alex Karpf's brother
I NEED HELP!
Please take this quick, meaningless 19 question survey so I can get data for my students to learn stats!
I did a similar version a few months ago but missed an important question type. Even if you did the old one, please do it again!
Please circulate widely!
Something about this is far more insidious than “Happy Pride from Raytheon”
Breaking: HHS’s ban on gender-affirming care is struck down. Rarely have I read a ruling this sharply worded.
“This case is one of a long list of examples of how a leader’s wanton disregard for the rule of law causes very real harm to very real people.”
www.advocate.com/politics/nat...
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Now, let me tell you why - my view, why we don't have peace. Because the fact of the matter is that too many Palestinians and too many Arabs do not want any Jewish state in the Middle East. The view of Palestinians is simple, the Europeans treated the Jews badly culminating in the Holocaust and they gave them our land as compensation. Of course, we say it's our land, the Torah says it, but they don't believe in the Torah. So that's the reason there is not peace. They invent other reasons, but they do not believe in a Jewish state and that is why we, in America, must stand strong with Israel through thick and thin. We must, because that is the reason, not any of these other false shibboleths why there is not peace in the Middle East.
Here's the actual transcript of the video. It's not helpful to try to paraphrase while still putting it in quotation marks.
Prediction markets are presented as real-time measures of probable outcomes driven by collective investment. Which is what horse racing odds are, and we don’t treat those as more than a novelty. Gift link: www.ctinsider.com/columnist/ar...
