And if this is the likely path taken by countries that import O&G, the decline in the global trade in hydrocarbons will mean less demand and use of dollars. And that in turn means more funding pressure and greater risks to the US’ growth model (at the core of which is the large fiscal deficit). End
These were the questions that Keith Joseph was asking in the late 1970s about the UK. It’s also the question that Argentines were asking after the fall of the military junta in the 1980s and the Singaporeans have been asking themselves about their own role in the aftermath of US tarrifs.
What can they do to bring new industries and capital ? What skills do they have to build on? Can they continue to play as big a role in the global economy as they did before the war? And if so how do they reform to achieve that?
My comment: You can see that any such shift will mean diminished global economic importance of GCC hydrocarbons. The question is this: how can the GCC countries adapt to the likely shift while containing the economic and social consequences for their societies ?
This is also why the deeper consequence of the current crisis may not be the short term price spike but the longer term acceleration away from fossil fuels. Countries that depend heavily on imported fuels are reminded with every crisis that their economies remain exposed to geopolitical shocks.”
The longer the crisis persists the greater these impact become because higher energy costs accumulate across supply chains, the result of which is rising inflation, slowing economic growth, economic pain and social unrest."
“Chemicals, fertilisers, plastics, transport and manufacturing all depend heavily on hydrocarbons as fuels or feedstocks and as those input costs rise they are gradually passed through the entire system.”
“The most important consequence of the ongoing crisis in the Gulf will most likely …be ..the economic shock that follows as rising energy prices …Oil and gas sit are the basis of modern industry and when their prices rise the impact quickly moves far beyond the energy sector itself.”
This is a very interesting short piece that gets to the core issues…
open.substack.com/pub/gerardre...
“With the LNG drought pushing up electricity prices and photovoltaics providing a cheaper… alternative, a boom in rooftop solar is far more likely than a return to coal. Don’t look under the ground for the solution to the LNG crisis. The answer is in the skies.”
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
“The main message is that we’re going to get the energy transition forced on us in a very painful way that’s going to happen very quickly.”
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
“Zoom out to economy-wide electrification where India is keeping pace. Electricity now accounts for nearly 20% of final energy – matching China at equivalent income levels and rivalling advanced economies today.”
“Transport tells a similar story. India’s road oil demand, at 96 litres per capita, is half of China’s at the same stage of development…. Electric vehicles are nearing 5% of car sales, as adoption races up the S-curve. In three-wheelers, India leads the world…”
“Compare India today with China at equivalent income levels. In 2012, China had negligible solar, and coal demand showed no signs of slowing. India in 2025 generates 9% of its electricity from solar, uses barely a quarter of the coal per person, and is already approaching its coal generation peak.”
The current energy crisis might globally speed-up the energy transition in an unprecendented reduction in fossil fuel use. In eg India, SE Asia EV for cars and solar + batteries instead of unsteady petrol, gas en coal imports.
the solar and wind buildouts getting stifled, and fighting against electric cars, are how this country is getting left behind, you cannot claim to be capitalist if you and fighting against global market forces
This is the REAL reason Trump hates solar power and wind turbines.
Solar and wind power mean energy independence. Which means the oil, gas, and coal industries that fund his regime lose a major part of their market.
Fuck the environment. Fuck other countries. Only corporate profits matter.
India was supposed to be a huge new market for LNG (liquefied methane). Much of it from Qatar. We were told it would replace coal. Even before Hormuz sent their LNG prices soaring, India had done the math and is moving to solar, wind and storage. Replacing coal as they go, just not with LNG.
“The jump in renewables is expected to reduce India's dependence on coal as a primary source of electricity generation to 49% by 2035-36, from more than 70% currently, according to the National Generation Adequacy Plan released by the Central Electricity Authority.”
www.vccircle.com/indiasolar-t...
“Thanks to .. falling costs, batteries are now seizing the role of last marginal generator… Electricity from a four-hour battery is now cheaper in almost every market that depends on LNG.... Even Saudi Arabia can now provide solar-plus-storage for less than gas.”
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
UK AR7 auction results are out today 🍃⚡
Excellent results with over 8 GW of capacity!
The strike price of £91/MWh for England/Wales fixed projects was significantly below the administrative strike price of £113/MWh that so many reported on last year, but was always the upper limit.
Does this SMR have a CFD/ pricing framework for the output ?
I want to come back properly on this Economist piece that questions Britain's approach to net zero.
It gets three things wrong imo:
1. Ignoring periods of v cheap renewable energy
2. Misdiagnosing the relative costs of renewables
3. Looking backwards, not forwards.
Large chunk of the world won’t care about oil embargoes very soon
Solar panels from $0.1/w ..
Versus a cost in London of £2.50 per cubic metre or $3.40. I find this extraordinary
