Our results show that inequalities in infection risk between ethnic groups are context- and pathogen-dependent, so public health interventions based only on national-level estimates would conceal regional variation in risk and may ultimately increase inequalities.
🚨Not yet peer reviewed🚨
Figure showing the distribution of attack rate relative to the White ethnic groups for different values of R0 in different cities in England. The local ethnic composition and demographic characteristics change the distribution of inequalities
This, together with mixing patterns and demographic differences, led to inequalities in simulated transmission dynamic. Differences in ethnic composition and population structure between cities in England resulted in differences in expected inequalities at a local level.
🚨Not yet peer reviewed🚨
We used the largest social contact survey available in England (Reconnect, see here www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...), and found that differences in contact distribution between ethnic groups remained after adjusting for demographic variables.
Figure showing the attack rate per ethnic group for different values of R0 in our simulations. Attack rate in higher in Mixed and Black ethnic groups for all values of R0, and lowest in the White ethnic group
In England, the burden of respiratory infections varies by ethnicity. Many factors lead to observed disparities. We show that differences in demographic characteristics, mixing patterns, and distribution of contacts between ethnic groups all create inequalities in infection risks
You hate reading papers and Bluesky threads? Fair enough, you can listen to me talk about it at the inequalities in infectious disease dynamics symposium later today (22/04) www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
🚨 New preprint🚨 "Ethnic inequalities in respiratory virus epidemics in England: a mathematical modelling study"!
Huge thanks to @rozeggo.bsky.social @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social @kevinvzandvoort.bsky.social @bquilty.bsky.social Edwin van Leeuwen Lorenzo Pellis, John Edmunds for input and feedback
IDDconf 2026 - July 7-9 in Ambleside, UK.
A new summer date & a new ticketing system!
Plus, 2 exciting workshops this year!
See IDDconf.org for more info
Tickets will go on sale on 2nd Feb. To be notified when, sign up at: tinyurl.com/IDDconf2026
New workshop alert 🚨 We are organising a Symposium and Workshop on Socioeconomic and Ethnic Inequalities in Infectious Disease Transmission at the LSHTM on 22–24 April 2026. Sounds like something you're working on? Find out more and apply before 21st Jan 2026 iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos...
Symposium & workshop on inequalities in infectious disease dynamics at LSHTM in April 2026. We aim to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to share ideas, discuss recent advances, and reflect on future directions. Details & application: iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos... Closing 21 Jan
New study out in Nature Communications! In this paper, we disentangle the impact of climate variation and serotype changes on dengue dynamics in Singapore and present a forecasting framework able to predict outbreaks up to two months ahead 🦟
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
How much statistical sleight of hand can you spot in this paragraph on the new CDC website, which is now littered with muddled and flawed claims about vaccines and autism? www.cdc.gov/vaccine-safe... 🧵
We're advertising an MRC-LID PhD studentship on modelling measles outbreak risk in teenagers and adults, with me, @amsuffel.bsky.social and @rozeggo.bsky.social
You'll design mathematical models using vaccine data and Electronic Health Records to analyse recent transmission patterns, get in touch!
In itself, the simulation model showed that an early delivery of MMR2 has the potential to reduce the risk of large measles outbreaks. Improving coverage remains the best way to fully mitigate outbreak risk.
Across scenarios and sensitivity analyses, bringing MMR2 forward led to a short- and medium-term reduction in case numbers in the simulations. This decrease was impacted by coverage: if MMR2 coverage decreased by 3-5% in the new schedule, only 4.8% of cases were averted.
Number of measles cases and cases avoided by vaccination strategy using a model including waning since vaccination.
Vaccine-induced immunity did not wane in the reference scenario. When a slow waning was included (from our previous study www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...), the impact of early MMR2 delivery decreased slightly (5.28% reduction). If waning started at a younger age, the reduction dropped to 3.79%.
Comparison of measles cases per age compartment as proportion of all cases and absolute numbers of cases between the reference scenario and an earlier MMR2 (A, D), between the reference scenario and MMR1 improved by 0.5% (B, E) and MMR2 given at the age of five (C, F). The error bars represent the interquartile range across all 2500 simulations per scenario.
The different vaccination strategies changed the age distribution of the cases: an earlier delivery of MMR2 led to a lower proportion of measles cases in children aged between 2 and 4. A 0.5% increase of MMR1 uptake decreased the number of measles cases across all age groups.
Comparing the median number and IQR (shaded area) of simulated cases across simulations using CPRD data between A Reference scenario and MM2 given at school age, B Reference scenario and MMR2 given at the age of two, C MMR2 given at the age two against an increase of MMR1 by 1%, D increased MMR1 by 1% and an earlier MMR2 with the same coverage as MMR1. E, F are comparing the early MMR2 with the same uptake as before against a drop in coverage by 3% and 5% respectively.
We used a compartmental model stratified by age and region, and simulated outbreaks with different vaccination schedules and coverage. Without changes to coverage, moving MMR2 to 2 years reduced the number of cases by 11.86%, similar to increasing MMR1 coverage by 0.5% across all regions and years.
Changes in the vaccination schedule affect transmission: it may impact vaccine coverage, and close an immunity gap by quickly protecting children who did not react to the first dose, but it also requires an extra vaccination appointment. This may be difficult for parents, and lead to lower coverage.
📢New paper led by @amsuffel.bsky.social in Nature Comms! We implemented a mathematical model to evaluate how vaccination timing and vaccine coverage impact measles dynamics, following the JCVI's recommendation to bring forward the second dose of MMR vaccine to 18 months of age by 2026 in England🧶
[New finding!]
Ryohei Mogi, Ryota Mugiyama, & Alyce Raybould (@alyceraybould.bsky.social ) has shown that individuals without a romantic partner are more likely to revise their fertility desires downward.
West parents warned as fifth of UK measles cases in region
In Bristol Live @benk-d.bsky.social & @alxsrobert.bsky.social discuss why #vaccination is best protection against #measles as new figures from UKHSA show cases rising in Bristol & South West England.
www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol...
In response to unsupported claims about the magnitude of measles waning, @alxsrobert.bsky.social contributed to this FactCheck piece, drawing on evidence from our recent paper on measles dynamics in England: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.factcheck.org/2025/03/rfk-...
Should you get a measles booster?
In National Geographic @alxsrobert.bsky.social discusses modelling study showing two doses of #measles vaccine gives lifelong protection from measles even if #immunity decreases very slowly over time.💉
www.nationalgeographic.com/health/artic...
PhD position with me and Neil Ferguson (Imperial) starting in September. March 7 deadline. Home fees only (unfortunately).
Looking for an enthusiastic student looking to learn new things.
Please get in touch for more info or an informal conversation.
The advert is now live here:
jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/EPH-EPED-202...
Until August 2027 we would be working on data analysis and modelling to try and untangle the dynamics of #AMR by age and sex exploring electronic health records 🧫📑👩💻. Get in touch if any questions!
Job opening for full professor and head of dept in infectious disease epidemiology and dynamics at @lshtm.bsky.social. Deadline 31st Jan: jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...
Incredibly excited to share that our manuscript was just published in @nature.com ! What a way to start the new year! 🎉
https://buff.ly/4gyYCzx
We present phylowave, a framework that enables to learn the fitness dynamics of pathogens from phylogenies.
🧵 A thread... 1/n
#IDSky #IDModelling
1/ 🎉 Thrilled to share our new study: Quantifying the impact of pre-vaccination titre and vaccination history on influenza vaccine immunogenicity 🦠💉 Published in Vaccine! link: authors.elsevier.com/a/1kD7x,60n7... with @adamjkucharski.bsky.social
We used a transmission model to understand differences in Covid severity and mortality in different socioeconomic strata in England.
The model had different demography and underlying health status by strata.
Led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
Starter pack of infectious disease modellers from CMMID - the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at LSHTM.
We are 150 in CMMID but just getting started on Bluesky!
go.bsky.app/625gwoG