Miami is the new San Francisco, with the highest out-migration rate of all large metros.

jedkolko.substack.com/p/with-less-...

With Less Immigration, Urban Growth Slowed in 2025 Plus, revisions to 2022-2024 local population estimates were unusually large.

With less immigration, urban counties grew more slowly than suburbs, smaller metros, and rural areas in 2025.

New Census data out this morning.

jedkolko.substack.com/p/with-less-...

I plead guilty to second-degree broken-recordism

Four takeaways from the new Census population estimates Immigration declined dramatically. Census estimates now align with other government estimates. The 2026 Current Population Survey population base will be adjusted downward.

Big immigration decline.

Agreement among different agencies' estimates.

Downward adjustments coming soon to the CPS.

And revisions to state populations: New York up, Florida down.

Key takeaways from today's new Census population estimates for 2025.

jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea...

Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday.

Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.

Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.

With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.

Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

Is anyone from the current Administration speaking at the #ASSA2026 conference?

Come for “mindless nitpicking” about immigration, tomorrow at 8 am at #ASSA2026

eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?...

Joyce Meyer was confirmed as the Commerce Dept's Under Secretary for Economic Affairs.

The position oversees the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Administration has proposed moving the Bureau of Labor Statistics into Commerce under this position, too.

Republicans are more upbeat about the economy than Democrats are, but the industries Republicans are more likely to work in are losing jobs.

2025 Government Shutdown FAQs on BLS Data — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics The Friends of BLS  The 2025 Government Shutdown and BLS Data: Questions & Answers How will the government shutdown, which may be over by the time you read this, affect BLS data? F...

Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

#econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social

"Trade wars screw up other things."

Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.

Requiem for a Jobs Report Today marks the second missing jobs report. Damage is piling up

Some thoughts in lieu of this morning’s jobs report.

open.substack.com/pub/jedkolko...

Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.)

Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.

What the government shutdown teaches us about private sector data The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resources,...

Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP.

The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.

New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently?

(And, if different, how?)

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Methodologies diverge. ADP reflects preliminary benchmark revision, while BLS payrolls won't until Jan 2026. That's extra reason for not drawing conclusions with precision.

ADP as published: -32k
ADP w/o revision: +11k

Plus, must weigh this all against a low breakeven rate!

White House withdraws Trump’s controversial nominee to lead BLS after ousting predecessor over jobs data | CNN Politics The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.

EJ Antoni nomination to lead BLS is withdrawn.

www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6.

“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”

www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky

That reported multi-million decline in US immigrants just doesn’t add up The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January is almost certainly wrong.

DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data

Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.

Update:

The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.

To be clear: this is bad! An essential data release is being delayed without explanation, at a time when the Administration has expressed distrust in BLS data.

There are real and immediate threats to the US statistical system. But be clear about the threats. Delaying CEX is not the same as, say, suppressing or fudging CPI to hide bad news.

The CEX delay is likely due to resource cuts, not meddling. BLS has lost lots of staff and expertise.

An extended delay COULD lead to politically-influenced choices about how to weight the CPI in the absence of needed CEX inputs. But that's not where we are today.

CEX reports on patterns of consumer spending, by category and demographics -- e.g. how much do older adults spend on food.

The spending mix is critical for calculating inflation: it shows how to combine prices of eggs, airplane tickets, TVs, etc. into an overall price level.

The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.

There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.

Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled (9/19/2025)

#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency.
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.

www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...

#econsky