ideologically extreme state legislative candidates receive significantly lower voter support in initiative than in non-initiative states, but not in concurrent elections for the US House of Representatives
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Thermostatic shifts against the direction of policy & the president happen across parties. That means internal shifts within the party out of power. Dems are moving left now, as they were in 2018. There's also slower steady change but hard to separate out the cyclical & long-term
If you were/are a participant in the US rave scene, please consider submitting your oral history at:
ravehistory.org
Also see rave history maps for some major cities here: ravehistory.org/maps
over a 90 year period, American policy outcomes have drifted to the left, but by an amount that is small relative to the difference between the modern Republican
and Democratic parties & not cleanly in response to public or elite opinion
www.michaelperess.com/research/Nat...
Had a blast joining the Science of Politics podcast to discuss my forthcoming book: Rural Pain, Republican Gain. Thank you @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for the invite!
DOGE threats reduced federal worker campaign contributions to Democrats, compared to 2017, rather than increased them via backlash
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
working-class members of Congress are not more likely to write bills addressing working-class issues or that include more policy tools to ensure their preferences are reflected
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Shadow docket trends enable Supreme Court to gain power relative to both the President & lower courts. Partisan implementation means a long-term constraint on new policy from only Dem admins, but level of implementation & compliance with interim Prez actions is still what matters
Under Trump 2, Supreme Court emergency decisions have been used more to block lower courts from holding up admin policies; neither this shift nor the dramatic increase in the shadow docket was foreseen by the justices when they moved to block the EPA
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-suprem...
The Supreme Court started the path toward lots of shadow docket emergency decisions because Roberts was mad that the Obama EPA was trying to move companies toward compliance with executive actions even when they would eventually lose in court
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/u...
Thrilled to share that my paper with @mattgrossmann.bsky.social and Caleb Lucas is now out at American Politics Research. In it, we introduce CongressData, a novel repository of 1,300+ variables on the US Congress.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/....
Drivers of Congressional Behavior: Analyzing Members, Constituents, and Committees With CongressData
doi.org/10.1177/1532...
Our new article is now available online.
Why rural areas vote Republican despite worse health outcomes
Rural America has moved toward Republicans even as Republican governance helps explain worse health outcomes
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Michael Shepard
www.niskanencenter.org/why-rural-ar...
each $1,000 in lost pandemic child tax credit benefits reduced consumer sentiment by 1.7 points (or about 2.4%), with largest effects among lower-income families with multiple children. These effects persisted two years after expiration
www.nber.org/papers/w35059
Majority parties of the president lose generic ballot support as midterms approach, especially at the end. It responds to falling prez approval & thermostatic public opinion. Backlash to the Iran War & immigration crackdowns will help Dems, but are consistent with normal cycle
Can corporate scandals reinvigorate democracy?
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Pepper Culpepper & Taeku Lee
www.niskanencenter.org/can-corporat...
Growth in urban counties is slowing with immigration declines; the Census also revised prior estimates, which had undercounted new destinations in favor of traditional inmigration hubs
jedkolko.substack.com/p/with-less-...
Democratic Party identification advantages in the American public have steadily declined over two decades, especially among those without degrees
yougov.com/en-us/articl...
Thanks. Not until 2027. But can send along before then.
V-Dem 2026 Democracy Report (US decline p33-39):
www.v-dem.net/publications...
Datasets & codebook:
www.v-dem.net/data/the-v-d...
Main declines in legislative constraints, civil rights, & freedom of expression.
Here is codex on indicator subjectivity & sensitivity to GOP congress control:
The Berkeley talk is (next) Friday at noon & the sign-up is here:
www.eventbrite.com/e/policymaki...
The Miami talk is Monday 3/30 at 6:30pm & the sign-up is here:
events.miami.edu/event/policy...
For our school district "spring" break next week, I invited myself to give talks at Miami Monday and Berkeley Friday (my first return since pre-COVID) next week on the new book project, Policymaking for Realists. If you are at either place, I hope you can join me. I hope you can join me.
What political theorists lined up behind Trumpism and why?
Laura Field tracks the strands of intellectual support, finding opportunistic turns, conflicting ideas, & real impact
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript on Furious Minds:
www.niskanencenter.org/the-intellec...
Trump's brand has crystallized existing party alignments & nationalized electoral competition, reducing local distinctiveness & constraining realignment. The Trump era is a period of consolidation, not partisan transformation
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Ideologically rating social science academic article abstracts (using a fixed contemporary ideological scale) finds that 90% lean left & all disciplines showed leftward movement from 1990-2024, especially on cultural issues.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Ideologically rating social science academic article abstracts (using a fixed contemporary ideological scale) finds that 90% lean left & all disciplines showed leftward movement from 1990-2024, especially on cultural issues.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Candidates get more support by moving to the middle of voters' ideological spectrum, but that may not mean the middle among elites. Democrats benefit by moderating most where the public is more conservative, Republicans where the public is more liberal
osf.io/preprints/so...
Our daughter, a high school freshman, had her newspaper story on a FOIA request by our congressman (over their ICE walkout), published in a national "best of" site:
bestofsno.com/85605/featur...
She's also June George (Regina's mom) in the school production of Mean Girls this weekend
Many thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for having me on the @niskanencenter.bsky.social #ScienceofPolitics podcast to talk '26 midterms for the U.S. Senate & House!
TLDR; battleground looks expanded for Senate Democrats compared to year ago thanks to candidate recruitment efforts. Take a listen!