My latest article is out. It argues that sea control has been reimagined in recent years, driven by a dramatic change in the value that states place upon the seas. This in turn is impacting navies across the globe.
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www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
From “The Simpsons” house genius John Swartzwelder, interviewed in The New Yorker by Mike Sacks
I’ve had the same editor since 1967. Many times he has said to me over the years or asked me, Why would you use a semicolon instead of a colon? And many times over the years I have said to him things like: I will never speak to you again. Forever. Goodbye. That is it. Thank you very much. And I leave. Then I read the piece and I think of his suggestions. I send him a telegram that says, OK, so you’re right. So what? Don’t ever mention this to me again. If you do, I will never speak to you again
Maya Angelou on the joys of being edited
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"Is Ukraine winning the drone war?"
The Russians certainly think so.
What are the implications of Ukraine's innovations for the war and, more broadly, for how other countries should be thinking about drones?
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...
It's harder to measure but I feel like RFK Jnr shutting down funding for MRNA research is actually up there with DOGE cuts and this latest Iranian war as a contender for Most Evil Things Trump II has done. Accounted properly, this regime is really wracking up 20th-century-dictator kill counts imo.
Quickest players to 300 V/AFL games
12y 172d - Adam Goodes
13y 16d - MARK BLICAVS
13y 82d - Mark Ricciuto
13y 93d - Jude Bolton
13y 94d - Joel Selwood
13y 95d - Scott Pendlebury
13y 95d - Craig Bradley
13y 97d - Andrew McLeod
#AFLCatsDogs #AFL
When Coltrane was in Miles Davis’ Band, Miles used to get livid about how long Coltrane’s solos were. One day, after Miles blew up, Coltrane admitted he couldn’t actually figure out how to end solos. Miles said, “You can start by taking the horn out of your fucking mouth.”
Not really the point but what’s particularly good about this vision is that it whoever wrote it could replicate it tomorrow with pretty minimal effort!
curry, liver and veg combo, Grimsby Town FC, £4
Got a number of thoughts about the NDS26 and Marles' speech today, but I was quite taken by this comment.
On one level it is a statement of the obvious - but to me it seems inconceivable that a politician would have said this 10 years ago. This alone is progress.
The title of this essay comes from a quotation by Avraham Zarbiv, the rabbinical judge and IDF reservist bulldozer operator who is the public face of the semi-irregular force of military and contractor earthmover operators who have both pushed for and executed mass demolition operations in Gaza
Death doula, the mic rula, the old schoola, you want a RIP, I’ll bring it to ya
In 2024-5 5,918 individual vessels called at Australian ports, the vast vast majority of which were foreign flagged. The idea that having 12 Australian flagged vessels will make any meaningful difference to this shipping task is absurd.
12 ships might be a useful supplement to enable requisition in the event of a crisis like a national disaster, or as a minor support to military sea lift.
They will have no meaningful impact on Australian dependence on foreign flagged vessels for trade. The numbers are far too small.
Indonesian overflight discussions with the US have huge implications for 🇦🇺.
Many of these flights would likely originate from 🇦🇺, and the same access dilemma is a fundamental issue with current ADF strategic approach.
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www.reuters.com/world/china/...
“War exacts a toll so severe that only the clearest and most necessary purposes can justify it. If…Iran is still in the fight and still able to exact major military and economic costs, then it is fair to ask what purpose this war truly serves.”
warontherocks.com/tactical-suc...
Owning a printer is a curse. Always broken. Ink is expensive. Everyone is constantly asking to use it. It's the computer equivalent of owning a pickup truck
A couple of thoughts on the 🇺🇸 apparent declaration of blockade.
1) Subject to a couple of caveats it is legal.
The first slightly embarrassing one is that legal blockade is an act of war - and 🇺🇸 has refused to call the “operation” a “war”.
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Can never get over how tawdry the modern Right's view of Western Civilization is; nothing to build, nothing to aspire to, nothing even really to destroy or wage war against, just sullen resentment of their own children and seething hatred of the cities whose economics subsidies their regimes.
JD Vance sucks
Me seeing the news from Hungary
Jesse Hogan becomes the first V/AFL player to kick goals at 20 different venues
#AFLGiantsTigers #AFL
Which brings us to the negative side. A power is not measured only by its ability to close sensor-to-shooter loops. It is measured by a range of other components that are part of its national security and the projection of its strength. Since October 7, Israel has projected military power in every direction, but its other strengths have been shrinking in alarming fashion. This is true of the continuing erosion of its international standing, especially in Europe, reflected in multiple fields from trade and the economy to academia and sports. It is also true of the erosion of its standing in the US, where Israel is at an unprecedented low point in public opinion in both parties. And it is also true of the ongoing wear on internal national resilience: the unequal sharing of the burden in the military and the economy, the allocation of funds that prioritizes sectors based on coalition politics rather than national need, the continuing harm to democracy and more. In this context, it is enough to look at the number of Israelis who have left the country in recent years compared with those who immigrated to it, and at the characteristics of those leaving in terms of education, income and military service, to understand that this is not a light blow to the wing but a national challenge threatening to become a danger. Next. As noted, Israel did not achieve its objectives in the war. The boasting over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz was ridiculous. It was open before the war, and for free. Now it is open at the whim of the Iranians, who are demanding payment for its use. The main parties harmed by this are the Gulf states, Israel's friends, whose standing was certainly weakened by the war because they were both attacked and are now exposed to retaliation. This will necessarily lead them toward one of three solutions, and perhaps all three at once: drawing closer to Iran to protect themselves, bad for Israel; accelerated military buildup, including efforts to obtain nuclear…
Above all, Israel remains with the same headache it entered the campaign with. It justified the war on the grounds that the nuclear program was an existential threat, and it emerged with the same nuclear program and the same existential threat. It justified the war on the grounds of the missiles, and it emerged with fewer missiles, but with the threat very much alive. It justified it on the grounds of severing the link to the proxies, and it emerged with a regional campaign in which Iran activates Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Shite militias in Iraq. It justified it on the need for regime change in Iran, and ended up with a regime that is far more extreme, dangerous and vengeful, one whose conduct over the past 48 hours suggests it is doubtful it will agree to far-reaching compromises. Two more notes. First, the IDF displayed, as noted, an impressive capability that may have no parallel in the world. But there were also those within it, and within the Mossad, who planted illusions about the possible collapse of the regime. It would be advisable for the military to show greater humility in this field of predicting the behavior of peoples and regimes, in which it has never excelled. Second, regarding interceptors: anyone entering a planned campaign ought to be far better prepared.
This is scathing internal criticism of Israel from one of the most pro Netanyahu outlets in Israel today
JP (&SK) problem is US wants — to import fewer goods from JP; to continue importing capital but give JP less control/return than debt/equity holders usually have; to provide less in the way of military/supply chain protection in both Far & Middle East; but retain vetoes on JP foreign policy.
SUCH IS MY LOVE FOR WALES THAT I MUST ACCEPT YOUR HIDEOUS CHALLENGE!
I would pay one hundred dollars to hear trump talk extemporaneously for five minutes about keeping invasive Asian carp out of the Great Lakes. I would love to see where that goes.
New post out:
"Understanding MAGA"
I look at the four different strands that make up MAGA philosophy (such as it is), the contradictions between them, and whether it can survive as a movement post Trump.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...
What’s killing NATO isn’t the European refusals to access to US bases, but Trump’s unilateral decision to redefining NATO as a US force-projection tool rather than a collective defense arrangement.
That’s the constitutional coup against the alliance.
Europe didn’t break NATO, Trump did.
Marcus Mietzner’s new book on the Jokowi presidency in Indonesia is free and online:
press.umich.edu/Books/R/Ruli...
Some thoughts on how we got to war with Iran, because even if the cause was mainly Trump getting high on his own Venezuela supply, and then getting played by Netanyahu, my sense is that this was also overdetermined from an institutional perspective in the DoD and State.
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