Read this guy @paulblustein.bsky.social

He's got a book and a good article.

Hear, hear!

I think this whole "petrodollar" thing got spun up by this article by Diana Choyleva in the WSJ. But that story is really a China story, which is her area of focus. Somehow people took it as a U.S. story.

Money is the most important thing in the world that like nobody understands.

Not really. It was kind of a big deal in the 70s but it's just not that much money now.

Why are people worried about the "petrodollar". It was kind of a big deal in the 70s but it's not important now except to people in the energy business and their bankers. Petrodollars are maybe $300 billion. That's a lot of money but it's chump change compared to $14 trillion in eurodollars.

What do you mean by "faith in the petrodollar"? I don't get it.

The eurodollar is the important thing and there is PLENTY of faith in that.

I don't really understand how the "petrodollar" became such a big concern. It was kind of a big deal in the 70s but that was before the eurodollar system expanded so massively.

Does it come from this Diana Choyleva article in the WSJ?

Can anybody tell me where all the worry about the "petrodollar" comes from.

It's not actually very much money. It doesn't really matter much.

Did it come from the WSJ article by Diana Choyleva?

#econsky

Total Strait of Hormuz Nerd Out A summary of the 'kinetic" reality of economic operation of the Strait

#hormuz

Here is my Strait of Hormuz Total Nerd-Out :

open.substack.com/pub/dlawbail...

Total Strait of Hormuz Nerd Out A summary of the 'kinetic" reality of economic operation of the Strait

#hormuz

Here is my Strait of Hormuz Total Nerd-Out :

open.substack.com/pub/dlawbail...

Total Strait of Hormuz Nerd Out A summary of the 'kinetic" reality of economic operation of the Strait

#hormuz

Here is my Strait of Hormuz Total Nerd-Out :

open.substack.com/pub/dlawbail...

Total Strait of Hormuz Nerd Out A summary of the 'kinetic" reality of economic operation of the Strait

#hormuz
#econsky

Here is my Strait of Hormuz Total Nerd-Out :

open.substack.com/pub/dlawbail...

Total Strait of Hormuz Nerd Out A summary of the 'kinetic" reality of economic operation of the Strait

#hormuz
#econsky

Here is my Strait of Hormuz Total Nerd-Out :

open.substack.com/pub/dlawbail...

I've looked and looked and cannot find ANY plan to protect commercial shipping in the Gulf from Iranian weapons.

From what I read it is simply not possible. Navies can protect themselves from Iranian weapons, but not hundreds of huge, bunched-up, unarmed vessels.

Anyone know different?

#econsky

Musk just has to keep lying to produce clicks and pump his stocks.

I just can't help thinking that there is a financial necessity behind this. I can't help thinking he is borrowing cash against shares and pumping it back into his companies.

The housing supply is not going to rebuild itself. Is it TDS or is the economy really headed for the rocks?

Professor El-Erian,

Would you estimate that about a 1.7% U.S. growth rate 6 months out with a confidence interval of about 1 standard deviation is about right?

Asking on behalf of Google Gemini.

😊

#econsky

Yeah, but it hasn't sunk in. When those mariners start abandoning ship, it's going to dawn on people how bad this is going to be.

Now imagine if Iran warned ships at anchor, which are very bunched up, that it was going to attack commercial shipping. They then warn mariners to abandon ship and encourage the Gulf states to send rescue vessels.

Shipping companies would have no choice but to order crews off their boats.

For those who are still talking about a dollar decline, the DXY (aka the Dollar Index) is back at 100, in the middle of it's 52 week range.

Forget about foreign exchange reserves. They don't mean much at all. The entire world uses dollars (albeit eurodollars) and that trend is increasing.
#econsky

Yet another reason we will never get the real Epstein Files until Republicans lose control of the investigative committees:

open.substack.com/pub/kaitjustic…

Imagine if they just sent the IRS the receipts and deducted the tariffs paid from their tax bill.

Let the IRS try to sue to claw back illegal taxes.

#econsky

The importers should just deduct the tariffs paid from their tax bill.

Pass it on.

#econsky

If I was an importer I would just deduct the tariffs I paid from my tax bill. Send the IRS the receipts.

Imagine if thousands of businesses did it. What are they going to do, sue?

#econsky

Now it's just a question of when and where a collateral crisis starts.

#econsky

Are there any MMT enthusiasts here? If you're not sympathetic to #MMT, why not? I was interested that Polankski of the UK greens is an explicit MMT enthusiast.

#econsky

Having an opinion about an opinion on opinion-drive social media is not "judgemental".

I was trying to make the point that you can be an atheist without being inappropriate and while keeping your heart open to believers - maybe *because* because rather than in spite of the fact they're wrong.

He said some unfortunate, harmful things. He said them in a free society. I can't help thinking of his parents, his wife and his little kids.

I'll think about politics tomorrow.

I grew up in a suburb of NYC. What haunted me were the school kids waiting for rides that never came and never would.

You see, this is very tough, but fair. I for one think tomorrow would have been a better time but I get it.

Personally, I think of nothing but his wife and kids right now. That's me as a dad.

My other emotion is fear and horror at what this might be a catalyst for. We all need eloquence now.

Bluesky! Do the words "now is not the fucking time" have no meaning over here?

Because they don't mean shit over on X.

You think our hate is going to win over their hate? I think they're a little more hateful than we are. I also think we stand for something a little better than they do.

Thanks Tim and Sarah for typically thoughtful words. Thanks to all the Never Trump Republicans for reassuring us Progressives that politics and ideology are not a trap if you live your values and have an open heart.