It's really hard to overstate how hugely favored conservatives were up until two months ago.

Here's the graph of Canadian polling between March 2023 and March 2025. (Reminder: blue is conservative.)

Those are months and months of 20+ point leads for Tories.

Hi Nina! There's been a couple of improved polls for Labor recently (ie a few at 52/48 2PP), but the weighted average of all polls in our model is more like 50.5/49.5, so closer than in 2022! We'll see if that trend continues for the ALP

A gauge showing a 95% chance of minority government.

Looking at our model for the upcoming federal election, minority government is all but a certainty. We're able to quantify it based on the current polls: 95%!

See poliq.au/2025/04/07/p... for details of @samvaughan.bsky.social 's great work on this. #auspol

A sneak peak at the seat-by-seat modelling I'm working on over at PolIQ for the upcoming Australian federal election. Keep an eye out for more in the coming weeks...

Political nerds: Have a play with my Prahran by-election simulator, and tell me what you think a realistic outcome is. prahran-byelection.streamlit.app #vicpol #prahran

The Greens have lost an MP in Prahran who took it from a margin of 30 votes to a safe seat. Can the Liberals reclaim it? I don't think so. poliq.au/2024/11/29/h... #auspol #vicpol #prahran

Our poll tracker shows the ALP and Coalition in a statistical dead heat. The momentum is not in the government's favour. This may increase the odds of an early election. The Ides of March! #auspol poliq.au/2024/12/03/w...