Zachary Donnini: "Ahead of polls close in Virginia, here’s a full briefing on what to expect in tonight’s redistricting referendum: Virginia is a relatively clean reporting state with a centralized results system, but the order of votes still matters a lot. This is a true three-method state: • Election Day (ED) • Early Voting (EV) • Absentee Mail (AB) In a close race, I expect something around: ED: NO +9 EV: YES +1 AB: YES +40 That means early returns in each county/city can be misleading depending on what drops first. Most jurisdictions report early vote and mail first, which creates an early blue mirage. But some key areas report Election Day first, creating pockets of a red mirage instead. Virginia Beach is the biggest example of a red mirage on a county/city level. Key benchmarks I'll be tracking: • Loudoun County big drop (~93% of vote): YES +14 • Virginia Beach: NO +5 • Chesterfield: NO +4 • Surry: NO +5 Base counties/cities: • Fairfax: YES +33 • Richmond City: YES +62 • Tazewell: NO +75 • Colonial Heights City: NO +43"
Zachary Donnini: "Turnout dynamics matter a lot in a one-off referendum, so I'll closely be watching rural ED turnout (red areas) and urban Black ED turnout (Dem base). Timing expectations: • First big Loudoun drop: ~7:50 p.m. ET • ~80% reporting by 10:30 p.m. ET • ~98–99% by ~1 a.m. ET VERY IMPORTANT: If the race is close, expect movement towards YES after Election Night: Fewer provisional ballots than usual are expected in Virginia, since they are tied to same-day registration and the state held a high-turnout election six months ago, meaning most voters are already registered. However, post-election votes will still matter and are expected to break heavily toward YES. I estimate: • Provisionals (~18K): YES +37 • Other late votes (~25K): YES +43 • Net effect: +0.5% shift in margin toward YES Avoid overreacting to small NO leads late in the evening. If it is NO+0.3 when we sleep Wednesday morning at 2 a.m. then YES is favored."
VERY helpful info from Zachary Donnini bluevirginia.us/2026/04/redi...
