so pretty!

A robust method for quantifying the contribution of transient dynamics to variation in population growth rate.

doi.org/10.32942/X2MT1V

Thanks to the wonderful collaborators Tulja, Rob @robsalgo.bsky.social, Wenyun and James! And look forward to nay feedback!

Using empirical studies, we find that short-lived species exhibit variability dominated by vital-rate fluctuations, whereas long-lived species can exhibit substantial contributions from transient population structure when vital-rate variation is sufficiently large.

We complement the analytical results with a simulation-based procedure that allows the decomposition to be estimated from time series of population projection matrices without requiring observations of past population structure.

Building on stochastic population theory, we derive a first-order decomposition under stationary environmental variation, yielding analytical expressions for the variance components associated with each source.

Our framework decomposes variation in population growth rates into contributions from: 1) vital rate fluctuations and 2) population structure (transients). We show it’s not just environmental variation in survival & reproduction but also transient deviations in population structure that matter.

Delighted to share new preprint co-led by @fishychrissy.bsky.social and I! Why do population growth rates vary through time? We develop a robust method to quantify the contribution of environmental fluctuations and transient dynamics to variation in growth rate. 1/6 ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v...

🗓 Extended schedule for this term, now with Harman Jaggi @harmanjaggi.bsky.social joining our lineup of speakers!

All details and Zoom link here: iite.info/seminar/

Also, don't forget we have 75+ previous talks archived on our YouTube 📺: www.youtube.com/@theoretical...

Summer School on Stochastic Population Dynamics led by Alex Hening. A great opportunity for anyone interested in learning about stochastic methods and their applications to population dynamics.

stochasticsummerschool.com

www.mathprograms.org/db/programs/...

Please repost.

If this aligns with your current work or ongoing thinking, we would be delighted to include your contribution. Please feel free to connect with us or email me. The submissions are due in Oct-Dec 2026. Please pass along friends and colleagues whom this will be of interest to.

The focus of the Special Issue is on theoretical frameworks and conceptual advances rooted in, inspired by, or extending Prof. Gadgil’s scientific legacy.

Prof Gadgil was not only an eminent theoretical ecologist but worked extensively in community conservation, earning him the Volvo Environment Prize and the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement. Here's an obituary published in Nature www.nature.com/articles/d44...

Honored to serve as co-editor of Journal of Theoretical Biology special issue celebrating Prof. Madhav Gadgil’s profound contributions to theoretical ecology, population biology, following his sad passing. Shripad Tuljapurkar, Arni Rao & I are editing the issue.
www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...

Here is a blog post on our recently published paper on collective movement with stopping: arshednabeel.github.io/blog/flockin...

(Short thread follows)

Our new paper in @pnas.org (co-led by @theogibbs.bsky.social) demonstrates that spatial patterns can modify interactions in plant communities of more than two species! (1/8)

Poster announcing the workshop.

Join us for an @smtpb.bsky.social workshop on Modern Coexistence Theory. We'll cover mathematical foundations, the theory of partitioning, and data-based applications. Featuring @swatipatel.bsky.social, Nick Kortessis, & Lauren Shoemaker. Zoom link here: smtpb.org/event-6426026

The Princeton Field Workshop is great opportunity for undergraduate students to learn ecological field skills and explore career paths! tinyurl.com/PFEW-2025

An ancient pea holds lessons for a warming Himalaya Nurtured for millennia in the Trans-Himalaya, the hardy black pea outperforms cash crops in resilience and nutrition — and could reshape how science values farmers’ knowledge and forgotten foods.

Had a great interaction with Sahana Ghosh from Nature India about our black pea research. Here's her excellent story on our paper:
www.nature.com/articles/d44...
@nature.com
@ornithoale.bsky.social
@stanforddoerr.bsky.social

The ecological promise of the Himalayan black pea Stanford researchers discovered a nearly forgotten variety of black peas from the northwest Himalayas that excels in climate resilience and nutrition.

Happy to share our research was featured in Stanford reports. @stanforddoerr.bsky.social @ornithoale.bsky.social
news.stanford.edu/stories/2025...

Excited to see our work on 🔥 in industrial forests featured in the @sfchronicle.com this morning.

Article by @kurtisalexander.bsky.social:

www.sfchronicle.com/california-w...

Check out our newest study published in Science Advances last Friday ❤️

A huge thanks to the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability for the accelerator grant that made this possible, and to the local community members who shared their knowledge, some of whom are co-authors and co-producers of this work. @stanforddoerr.bsky.social

We hope these findings can empower the farmers to revive and grow resilient traditional crops and diversify their production systems across mountain landscapes.

Our multipronged research underscores the importance of integrating traditional agricultural knowledge with ecological science to sustain agrobiodiversity, enhance climate resilience, and promote sustainable food systems.

Third, we find higher protein and micronutrient content such as iron, magnesium, and calcium in black peas compared to green peas.

Second, we provide the first whole-genome sequencing of black pea. Using spectral, hierarchical, and k-means clustering, we find black peas form distinct genetic clusters (from wild and domesticated subspecies) highlighting a complex cultural and environmental selection over thousands of years.

We examined black peas (an understudied, lesser-known crop) and barley from an ecological, genetic, nutritional and cultural lens. Our first finding is what local farmers knew all along: black peas require much less water to grow & outperform the introduced green pea in survival/reproductive traits.

Happy to share our research on traditional farming landscapes in northwest Himalaya is out in Science Advances! Thanks to my advisor Tulja & all the wonderful collaborators- Ale @ornithoale.bsky.social, Katie @kasolari.bsky.social, Akshata, Kullu, Rinchen, Lamaji. 1/7 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...