It's back up! Well, mostly. Only charts like the quoted one are available at the moment; anomaly versions are forthcoming.
kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTm...
For context, here's a map of all 17 (!) regions now displayed on this page.
This is so cool! Is there any way to get the raw RSI data from NCEI anymore? I can't seem to find it.
What a nice surprise that was.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN TO ALL, INCLUDING RADICAL LEFTISTS, INCLUDING THOSE MANY PEOPLE THAT I COMPLETELY & TOTALLY DESPISE BECAUSE THEY WANT TO DESTROY AMERICA, A NOW FAILING NATION. HAPPY HALLOWEEN EVERYONE! 👻🎃
With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime.
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We wrote about the Google DeepMind AI forecast model that has been doing quite well in predicting Atlantic #hurricane tracks & intensities this year. Thanks @bmcnoldy.bsky.social @franklinjamesl.bsky.social for insights, @NOAA for working without pay:
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
🧪🌀
Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.
Thanks to some vigilant friends out there, I have a nearly-complete 87-hour radar loop of #Melissa 's approach to #Jamaica. The loop abruptly ends when the radar is lost (either loss of communication with it or loss of the actual structure).
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
The incoming shortwave over the Southeast will help to supercharge the poleward outflow of #Melissa over the next several hours. This may also promote additional deepening via extreme divergence aloft.
Somehow...the eye of #Melissa continues to warm. This indicates the presence of extreme subsidence which is often a sign of further deepening.
There's a legitimate chance we get below 900mb at some point overnight
We're very lucky to have such brave men and women putting their lives on the line to collect extremely valuable data with #Melissa.
Our satellite estimates have been running much higher than what recon has actually been finding.
The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...
With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.
My digital shot of an EF5 tornado near Enderlin, North Dakota on the night of June 20, 2025.
My digital shot of an EF5 tornado near Enderlin, North Dakota on the night of June 20, 2025.
Pretty surreal to say I’ve officially documented an EF5 tornado. The first EF5 tornado since Moore 2013.
Enderlin, North Dakota - June 20, 2025.
Map of the eastern North Pacific showing thirteen TC locations where those storms first achieved category 4 hurricane strength. Green dots show May, orange show June, and the black star shows 2025 Erick. Lines depict each storm's track leading up to that first time.
The eastern North Pacific can produce strong tropical cyclones (TCs) early in the season, but Erick's trajectory is unusual among category 4+ hurricanes for this time of year.
During 1971-2024, 2 TCs achieved this in May and 10 in June.
Now, in 2025, Erick is unlucky number thirteen.
This is going to be a gnarly couple of days 🥵
(h/t @burgwx.bsky.social)
Here's the same general time period and guidance from the 00z 6/16 operational ECMWF (courtesy of @burgwx.bsky.social):
We may actually have a few solid chances at severe weather in the Northeast next week if we can get a solid EML to spill over the top of this ridge.
map of the united states black with dots of protests in places both big and small
ngl this map of scheduled protests for this weekend is *wild*
“Hard drive computers” and acting as if each wfo a) has a green screen and b) needs it to issue core products
This guy doesn’t know shit about NWS
Yikes
Yesterday's 30% tornado risk from the SPC already verified (obviously) and the surveys haven't even started.
Their incredible efforts and advanced lead time undoubtedly saved lives.
I can’t believe this is even a conversation. Shutting down radiosonde sites will cost orders of magnitude more $ via poorer forecast skill. NASA’s GMAO keeps tabs here: gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/sy...
Updated outlook progression and preliminary storm reports graphics for March 14-15.
I miss when websites weren’t all the same and everything wasn’t monetized and everyone had their own little blog and search engines weren’t full of slop and the internet was fun
Yup. Rapidly changing passwords on everything else now too. This may be my sign to finally get out of that echo chamber of insanity
My Twitter account was hacked. Please don't interact with it for now 🙄
Observed ABQ sounding with a tropopause around 400mb (at 35N) in a tropopause fold! This tropopause fold is interacting with two jet streaks within the subtropical jet (seen on water vapor) while ejecting into the Plains and taking on a severe negative tilt. Just a powder keg of a synoptic setup.
Is this live already? Looks awesome.
Both today and tomorrow have the potential to be one of the most dangerous back-to-back severe weather outbreaks we've seen in years for the CONUS.
Have a way to get warnings and stay aware
