The US militaries utility function is different than society writ large.

The flu vaccine is easily the weakest evidence base for a vaccine, exceptions for old people since they are at higher risk of going into the ICU. But, I’m pretty sure the risk of mere reduced effectiveness of a unit d/t spread makes the evidence pan out in this case.

Just won’t get close enough?

Oh the quaintness of worrying about OAWs when HGVs rain down on Guam

@whatismoo.bsky.social someone on the other website mentioned you might have an answer to a question about Soviet doctrine in the 1970s/80s - any chance I could DM you?

Excellent, thank you Dr. Wilson!

What might be a good starter academic source so I don’t keep bothering you about it :)

What was the case for Convair’s resentment other than “we lost the contract” anger?

I cannot wait!

I actually don’t know the story all that well Professor! It’s on my list to dive in to but have not had the time. What are the complexities that the simplistic narrative leaves out?

The implied conclusion is that this arrangement worked to field ICBMs quickly. Why then, did we mostly abandon this model.

Random question. For the development of the ICBM, famously the USAF did not award contacts to "prime contractors". They acted as the prime contractor themselves through the WDD. They were responding to their perception of poor performance of prior missile programs with prime contractors.

In the UAS made tanks obsolete debate of 2018, lots of non defense folks don’t understand what obsolescence means. But undoubtedly becoming clear that they have raised the costs of offensive operations, even if by forcing additions of new hardware to defend.

A notable strength of the US in the interwar era: www.amazon.com/Winning-Futu...

What else is in the premortem?

What are the specific USN damage specs that are not met by foreign warshisp?

I would love to know why *Boeing* the company that has been building tankers since 1950! messed that one up so bad. No excuses for bleeding edge technology - this was a freaking tanker.

Or would said hypothetical well funded entrant be limited to non-sub/carrier vessels? Though frankly another Burke supplier would be nice too.

Also Katy Perry makes banger songs and I'll hear no slander against that.

I asked @giledpallaeon.bsky.social this question earlier, but do you know if the IP rights for the Virginia class are owned by USN? Like, if I somehow magic'ed my way into billions in capital and wanted to become a second supplier for it, could the USN even give me a contract?

Schrodinger's Strait. You don't know whether it is open or closed until you try to sail through it and see if you take a cruise missile to the side or not.

"Illegal to look elsewhere"; does that mean a new U.S. entrant is legally banned from entering? Or does it mean that Hanwha can't build ships for the Navy.

Anyone calling you for a job 😂

The problem I see being that defense items have grown farther apart from civilian manufacturing over time, so more prep work would have to be done than in WW2.

Of course I take your point that GE is not really the appropriate firm to be doing outreach to , since they are already defense contractor. However, the broad idea that seems appropriate.

I have no faith in execution but to steel man, i isn’t this exactly what we did in World War II. Prior to the war, the ordnance department have divided the country into districts who essentially assigned civilian plants to defense items.

More generally, defense supply chain needs **entry**, and not small-scale, risky, "innovative" entry financed by VC, but entry of large scale manufacturing companies into mature categories as suppliers.

The big questions. What will they build? How are they going to learn to build what DOD wants them to build? In WWII we used educational orders, but they were too few and too late, those might be quite helpful.

A lot of problems would need to be sorted out for this to work, but I agree with the idea of beginning preparations for civilian firms to manufacture defense items. It will be needed, and it is exactly what we did prior to WWII.

The IR sensor fabs are not CMOS fabs, the MMIC fabs are not CMOS fabs, etc.