I love America more than anything, and it would sicken me to my core to have this blood on our hands. It's a stain we will not be able to wash off.

At this very moment, Iran is trying to get children and young Iranians to circle power plants, hand in hand. If Donald Trump blows them up, it will be an image the world will never forget.

The President of the United States is threatening to wipe out Iran's civilization - a clear signal of genocidal intent. This would be evil, and it would destroy America's reputation for generations.

President Trump's approval rating hit a new low today in the RacetotheWH Average.

Approve: 38.8%
Disapprove: 57.9%
Net: +19.1% Disapprove

Here's my current project for the Maine Senate Primary, based on the election forecast I built that simulates the race 3,000 times.

Projected Vote:
Graham Platner: 55.0%
Janet Mills: 37.9%
Rest of the Field: 4.7%

Thank you!

Pete Buttigieg almost won New Hampshire in 2020 - and voters seem to like him even more now. He has led all five 2028 New Hampshire primary polls.

Definitely. I have it all ready to go. Just waiting for one post-primary poll and to see who Trump endorses.

Finally, for those that are curious, the model is powered by a combination of:
1. Polling
2. Fundraising
3. Endorsements
4. Political experience
5. google trends (how much people are searching each candidate's name).

It also factors in momentum, giving a boost to surging candidates.

2. In the final days of the campaign, we saw VP Kamala Harris and several members of Congress back Crockett. That usually doesn't happen for the losing candidate. Perhaps their picking up on signals the rest of us are missing.

Anytime you get such a wildly different landscape in the polls, I think it's fair to assume the chance of a polling miss from the overall average - in ether direction - is more in play.

1. Polls have been all over the place. While the two highest quality polls, conducted in the final days were great for Talarico, we had two independent polls taken a week or two earlier showing Crockett up by 12-18%.

Since 2002, I've run my Senate Primary forecast in 34 races, and I've gotten all 34 right. Some of this has been luck and some of it's hopefully skill.

Eventually it will get one wrong - and there's two red flags in this race that give me a little pause.

Here's my final prediction for the Texas Democratic Primary.

Projected Vote:
James Talarico 52.3%
Jasmine Crockett 46.6%

Chance to Win:
James Talarico 62.4%
Jasmine Crocket 30.6%
Runoff: 7.1% Chance

James Talarico is having quite a moment in Texas after the Colbert interview - and according to Google Trends, Texans are now searching his name at a very high rate just in time for early voting.

For the first time this term, President Trump's approval rating has fallen below 40% in the RacetotheWH polling average.

It certainly helps that Democrats have Mary Peltola in the Senate race - who won Alaska the same year Republicans took the House in 2022. The environment is going to be a lot more friendly to Democrats this time around, so she's got a real shot!

Watch Alaska in 2026 - the state is zooming towards Democrats at a break neck speed. Relative to the popular vote, Alaska shifted from an R+29% state in 2008 to R+12% in 2024. No state in the nation has shifted faster towards Democrats in the last 16 years.

Logan Philips: "I ran the new proposed Virginia map through my House Forecast. After simulating the election 10,000 times, here's what changed: Old Map: Dems 7.4 seats, GOP 3.6 seats. 1.2% chance Dems win 10/11 seats. New Map: Dems 9.5 seats, GOP 1.5 seats. 69% chance Dems win 10/11 seats. Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH · 2h Let's go through the races where the forecast changed the most. VA - 1: Tilt R -> Safe D, Vindman (D) from VA-7 runs here VA - 2: Tilt D -> Lean D - Democrats chance to win improves from 68% to 83% Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH VA - 5: Tilt R -> Likely D, Democrats chance to win improves from 31% to 86%, If Wittman (R) from VA-1 runs, he likely runs here VA - 6: Safe R -> Likely D, Democrats chance to win improves from 2% to 92%"

Interesting; in this simulation by @loganr2wh.bsky.social, redistricting gains Dems 2.1 seats (7.4 with the old map to 9.5 with the new map), with VA05 going from a 31% to an 86% chance for Dems, and VA06 going from a 2% to a 92% chance for Dems bluevirginia.us/2026/02/wedn...

Thanks for the welcome!

I'm joining Blue Sky late - but better late then never! I run RacetotheWH, where I predict the results of every election. Here's how the midterms look today!

House - Chance to Win:
Democrats: 69% (+8% since Oct)
Republicans: 31%

Senate:
Democrats: 40% (+6% since Oct)
Republicans: 60%