The Strait of Hormuz is closed because of Iran.

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The Strait of Hormuz is closed because of the US.

Nigeria is doing Africa's biggest sovereign total return swap loan yet - $5bn against $6.6bn in naira bond collateral, after Senegal's $1.3bn $ Angola's roughly $2.5bn to date. These deals are sweeping African government borrowing as international bond markets have closed. placng.org/i/wp-content...

Which is what’s really going on here.

“Yields on the investments are expected to range from 5 to 7 per cent, a person close to the talks said.”

That’s significantly higher than the government’s cost of borrowing.

The energy shock has well and truly reached Africa now www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

EM Debt (Reuters): "But if the uncertainty persists, it could increase the appeal of other avenues of raising money - borrowing directly from lenders through complex transactions such as total return swaps or private placements ..."

Sadiq Khan launches £400,000 fund to help renters sue their landlords The fund is set to become available when the Renters’ Rights Act comes into force on May 1

2.7 million Londoners. One generational transformation.

Our Renters’ Rights Enforcement Fund ensures the biggest expansion of rights in years is backed by the power to uphold them. We’re helping renters know their rights and giving organisations the resources to uphold them.

Middle East conflict will damage UK’s economy ‘more than any other’ Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says UK economy will grow by just 0.7% this year

Bad headline.

Philippines has already imposed a state of emergency. There is fuel rationing already under way in many countries; cooking gas queues in Nepal; Sri Lanka urging firms to shut on Wednesdays; Pakistan closing schools and moving universities online.

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Senegal tapped €650mn of undisclosed borrowing in bid to avoid default West African nation agreed total return swaps with AFC and FAB months after separate hidden debt scandal came to light

How Senegal used total return swaps backed with its domestic bonds to tap cash from international lenders despite the fallout from a hidden debt scandal, on terms that haven't been shared with the IMF. It's not the only government using swaps like this... www.ft.com/content/fbd6...

Really interesting and valuable reporting - have you found out what the floating rate used in the loans is?

"interest payments of 3.5 to 4 per cent over a floating rate"

"paying a floating rate plus about 5 per cent"

Senegal managed to pay $471m to bondholders at the end of last week.

But only by delaying payments to France, UK, Italy and Spain.

www.africanews.com/amp/2026/03/...

"Senegal is falling behind on payments to other lenders such as France, Britain, Italy and Spain, five sources familiar ​with the situation told Reuters ..."

Over 1,000 lives have already been lost since the US and Israel’s attack on #Iran. Alongside immense human suffering, the war is already having huge economic consequences that extend far beyond the region.

A 🧵 on the impacts, and what could happen to countries in debt if the situation continues

Austerity and Debt Sustainability: Tim Jones The Policy Podcast · Episode

"What are the social and global ramifications of poor or prosperous debt policy?" Our Tim Jones spoke to The Policy Podcast:

open.spotify.com/episode/5ivX...

Pakistan to close schools, take other measures to cut energy as oil spikes Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ‌said on Monday that schools would close for two weeks and office workers would work more from home as he announced a range of measures to cut fuel use and gov...

Some examples of how the energy crisis is affecting South Asia.

1. Pakistan will close schools for the next two weeks, get government employees to work from home and universities will shift to online learning.

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Private Eye cover with photos of Trump in his “war room” suggesting the Iranian offensive was to distract from the Epstein files

Ah, Private Eye Day…

There are so many climate-related disasters that upend the lives of entire communities or regions while scarcely registering in the places most responsible for them.

Starting a running thread of these increasingly-frequent events

Borrowing from private creditors: blessing or curse? Evidence from the unfolding sovereign debt crisis - Journal of Economics and Finance Journal of Economics and Finance - The aim of the study is twofold. First, although numerous empirical studies examine how overall debt levels and macroeconomic factors influence default...

Indunil de Silva finds debt problems increase the more is owed to external private lenders:

"reducing reliance on expensive private market borrowing in favor of official ... financing is essential for debt sustainability in developing economies"

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Brazil borrowing in USD at 6.25% for 10 years, and 7.25% for 30 years. Seems quite pricey.

so a month ago I was reading @markpackuk.bsky.social’s speech on Twitter in the lords and there were obviously fake stats the government used to justify Twitter’s UK reach and its continued importance to British audiences

Rob has now found the source of the data was… Twitter

This is precisely why we need debt legislation in key jurisdictions like the UK and New York, and why we need a broader process to reform the debt architecture, including debt resolution rules and restructuring mechanism ... this is through a UN framework convention on sovereign debt!

Reaction from Debt Justice to bondholders suing Ethiopia - Debt Justice Official creditors were right to reject deal, the UK now needs to pass legislation to protect Ethiopia from legal action

Vulture funds are suing Ethiopia in London. They are demanding far more in debt payments than other creditors such as France and China. We need a Debt Justice Law now.

debtjustice.org.uk/news/reactio...

Bondholders seeking massive profits from Ethiopian ‘debt relief’ - Debt Justice Bondholders are pushing to get paid over 50% more than Ethiopia’s government creditors. These proposals could lead to bondholders making 100% profit.

Ethiopia's bondholders are trying to get paid 50% more than government creditors. This would mean they'd make 100% profit after 'debt relief'.

New research by us and Afrodad:

debtjustice.org.uk/press-releas...

What do the IMF and the World Bank owe Senegal ? There are exceptions to the rule that “Un mauvais arrangement vaut mieux qu’un bon procès »

This from John MacIntyre on the track record of the WB and IMF in Senegal, and Mackey Sal's administration, is blistering.

open.substack.com/pub/johnmcin...

Peter Doyle Tribute to a good salty man

An obituary to the IMF's chief nemesis and a lovely caring man, Peter Doyle . Thanks to my co-author and substack host @generaltheorist.bsky.social

moneyinsideout.substack.com/p/peter-doyle

Sri Lanka counts cyclone cost as toll hits 465 Sri Lankan authorities said Wednesday they would need some $7 billion to rebuild homes, industries and roads destroyed by Cyclone Ditwah, which has left at least 465 people dead so far.Hopes have fade...

Sri Lanka: "Our initial estimate is that we will need about six to seven billion dollars for the reconstruction," said Prabath Chandrakeerthi, the Commissioner-General of Essential Services who is leading the massive recovery effort." #Ditwah sg.news.yahoo.com/sri-lanka-co...

MMT matters because it reveals power – and gives us back the right to choose I think modern monetary theory (MMT) matters. That is not because it is perfect, because no theory is. Instead, it is because it explains something that almost no one in mainstream economics has ever ...

This stuff really is snake oil. Would be a great shame if @zackpolanski.bsky.social fell for it. Politically it’s a one way ticket to nowhere. Important under current circumstances to have an articulate and credible voice on the left. Zack needs to steer clear.
www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/11...

We’re joining @BigGive's #ChristmasChallenge!

That means from TODAY until 9 December, you can make double the difference with one donation!

Help win debt justice for millions around the world: donate.biggive.org/campaign/a05...

#ChristmasChallenge #BG25 #GivingTuesday

UBS Charged in Switzerland Over Credit Suisse ‘Tuna Bonds’ Scandal The charges are the latest in a saga that started around 2013, when Credit Suisse arranged debt deals for state-owned companies in Mozambique.

"In this round, it isn’t Credit Suisse’s lending in question, but how it handled payments coming into a Credit Suisse client account from Mozambique’s Finance Ministry." www.wsj.com/finance/ubs-...

Senegal: "Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told parliament that Senegal needed a "very large amount" of financing totalling 6,000 billion CFA francs ($10.60 billion) annually on average ..."

Welfare spending is currently 1.2% of GDP *lower* than in 2012-13.

Abolition of two-child cap is best viewed as a correction than an increase.