Grains: Passive investors in the ETF's $Corn & $WEAT pared their long-positions for the first time after building record longs over the prior 5 weeks, positions down 17% & 7% respectively week/week.
3 S.D. daily moves in S & P & Crude Oil futures so far today
Passive Investors & Grains: Holdings of the ETF's $CORN & $WEAT hold a record # of units for each breaking 2022 levels.
It's not a record in notional values but the highest since 2022 @ $292 mil & $282 mil respectively.
Wheat: Managed-$ funds held a small net-long a/o 3/31, their first net-long since 6/28/2022.
Oil Refining Margins: $1.17/gallon , down 22-cts week/week, but up 37-cts/gallon vs. 30 days ago
Managed-$ Funds: They were net-buyers C+S+W+SBO&SBM for the 9th consecutive week building their net-long to 737k contracts w/e 3/24.
Record is 779k from 8/21/2012.
Grain ETF's: Passive investors in $CORN ETF have a record ownership & notional futures value of $231 million a/o Tuesday's close. That compares to $47 million 30 days ago. $WEAT is $261 million, highest since Dec 2022 and nearly doubled vs. 30 days ago.
Oil Refining Margin: Not yet at the 2022 record overall at $1.39/gallon a/o Friday but the diesel component at $2.27/gallon broke the October 2022 record ($1.98/gallon) Friday.
Don't hear any calls for DOJ investigations.
On Iran, Gabbard Turned Intelligence Duties Over to Trump
Lot of media attention to Fertilizer prices; week/week & y-o-y comparisons below. Biggest impact on corn, very nitrogen-dependent. Net-revenue for soybeans more favorable vs. corn as a result of spike in N-based fertilizers
Grain ETF's: Passive investors are jumping into $Corn & $Weat ETF's , building long positions last seen when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Dollars-invested are up $79 mil & $90 mil respectively , 2.5X & +58% levels of 2 weeks ago.
Grain ETF's: Passive investors are jumping into $Corn & $Weat ETF's , building long positions last seen when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Dollars-invested are up $79 mil & $90 mil respectively , 2.5X & +58% levels of 2 weeks ago.
Managed-$ Funds (5 ags- c,s,sm,sbo,&w)
Based on changes in OI & Price, I estimate they've added to their net-long since Tuesday. A/O Monday close, estd. combined net-long > 600k contracts, largest since May 2022. Let's see what today brings.
(Record is 779k August 2012)
(Mom and Dad I need you to keep that house so I have a place to store stuff though, tyvm)
Me: A lot of people voted for Trump. I don't know why they did that, but they did.
Make that a 4 s.d. daily move
Soybeans: 3 std. deviation daily decline as the pullback approaches trendline support.
diesel & heating oil leading the charge l
When thinking about broader economic impact of rising gasoline & fuel, consider, in past 3 weeks, U.S. diesel is up 28%, gasoline up 18%.. both headed higher nearterm.
Update: Refining margins now $1/gallon overall led by heating oil/diesel at $1.60/gallon. The latter is the highest since November 2022 when retail diesel was $5.25/gallon ($4.85 a/o March 9th)
Crude Oil & Refining Margins: The focus may be on the up & down in CL but refining margins at 89-cents/gallon are the highest since August 2023. As long as products are well-bid, CL will be well supported (as will gas at the pump) .
2 common threads : Katrina (2005) & Russia's attack on Ukraine (2022)
Trump's talent pool
Dumb & Dumber
We've let the wrong people define masculinity. It’s time we take it back. Real masculinity is doing what's right, and doing it with kindness, empathy and compassion. @principlesfirst.bsky.social
Washington, D.C., February 20, 2026) – USDA is opening the enrollment period for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, providing $11 billion in one-time bridge payments to row crop producers in response to temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs.
Gold: Daily Volume in the lead-month contract since Lunar New Year began Tuesday is < 100k contracts (avg 93k), the lowest-volume since Dec 26-27, 2024. 5-day avg volume in the preceding 5-days was 138k. It's anecdotal evidence of Asian-participation in gold futures & derivatives
This is utterly deranged behavior from a U.S. attorney general
Understatement of the century
