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Posts by Shahin Vallée

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A Pillar of the Economics Establishment Admits That It Was Wrong In a new report, the World Bank thinks better of its old free-market absolutism.

"It's actually enraging how the World Bank can suddenly change its mind about industrial policy like "Oops, for the past 45 years we systematically prevented you from using the most obvious tool for sovereign development, keeping you stuck in poverty and dependency, lol".- @jasonhickel.bsky.social

3 days ago 89 32 2 4
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The House of Orbán: Neo-Royalism—or Just a Dynasty? Stacie E. Goddard and Abraham Newman’s neo-royalist framework not only captures the logic of Viktor Orbán’s rule, but also goes a long way toward explaining why it is unraveling.

Why did Orbán lose? The external scaffolding of his regime is often underappreciated—and parts of it started to come undone. I wrote this before the election:

brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/the-house-...

3 days ago 9 2 1 0
Understanding the renewed focus on global imbalances
Understanding the renewed focus on global imbalances YouTube video by AtlanticCouncil

Mark Sobel and I discussed the new global imbalances at the IMF yesterday.

Its fair to say we are both jittery about them and not optimistic on their resolution through international coordination.

A crisis of sorts is more likely.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=F21W...

5 days ago 10 2 0 0
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Maine passes first-in-nation freeze on big data centers The Maine legislature passed the first state ban in the nation on the development of large data centers on Tuesday.  The temporary measure, which lasts for 1.5 years, restricts the constructio…

12 more states have bills to ban new data centers but Maine passed theirs first. The future is absolutely up for grabs.

thehill.com/homenews/sta...

4 days ago 2202 585 51 27
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A very generous review of THE ASSET CLASS in this week’s New Statesman from @duncanweldon.bsky.social, who really got what I was trying to achieve when he described it as a “detective story” that “reads more like a thriller”.
In print today! www.newstatesman.com/culture/book...

5 days ago 14 5 1 1
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Auguries from Hungary Orbán’s election defeat is a blow to Trump and Maga

“Orbán’s banishment is a blow to the fatalism that has become so fashionable in western democracies. There’s nothing inevitable about the march of the populist-oligarch right.”
My Swamp Notes with @gideonrachman.bsky.social. Free to read. as.ft.com/r/a16fea82-8...

4 days ago 148 40 3 3
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China shock 2.0: should Europe repel Chinese investment? Brussels wants firms opening factories in the EU to transfer knowledge and employ local staff. Will it work?

1/10
Good FT article on the role of Chinese investment in manufacturing in Europe. I worry however that EU policymakers may be framing the issue poorly. This should not be about managing incremental, country-by-country changes in production.

www.ft.com/content/873a...

6 days ago 23 9 2 0
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How the U.S. Is Uniting Libyan Rivals to Squeeze Out Russia Peace in Libya could unlock oil and mineral wealth, as well as expanding American influence.

Reading. www.wsj.com/world/africa...

6 days ago 2 1 0 0
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Can’t really shake the feeling that at least one of these numbers suggests some mispricing.

6 days ago 32 4 2 1

Very useful comparative oil shock data viz.

6 days ago 54 22 0 1
LIVE: ECB President Lagarde Speaks Exclusively to Bloomberg
LIVE: ECB President Lagarde Speaks Exclusively to Bloomberg YouTube video by Bloomberg Television

Live from 16:00 CET/ 10:00 ET: Looking forward to speaking with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg TV about the economic outlook for Europe www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWx9...

1 week ago 4 4 0 0
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Public hearing on the “Global role of the euro” | Highlights | Home | ECON | Committees | European Parliament Main page of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON). Latest news, links to documents and videos of meetings.

“Global role of the Euro”: Today 14:30 CEST @europarl.europa.eu Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs hearing with @shahinvallee.bsky.social @tl-beck.bsky.social Marie-Sophie Lappe.

Details and EGOV background: www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/e...

1 week ago 3 1 0 0

Green TLTRO

1 week ago 2 0 0 0
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Viktor Orbán is gone. What does his fall mean for Europe? Our panel responds Hungary’s return to democracy will be hard. But the impact of Péter Magyar’s decisive victory could be profound, inside the country and beyond

My thoughts in @theguardian.com about what Magyar's election means for Hungary, Europe and Ukraine

With the great @nathalietocci.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

1 week ago 51 14 1 1

And the second punch by JD Vance! Can’t thank him enough

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It’s a great moment to remember that in the leadup to this popular uprising, the first major gut-punch was delivered by Budapest Pride. Poetic justice. 🇭🇺🏳️‍🌈

1 week ago 4493 993 24 21

‼️🇭🇺🇪🇺 Here is a potted timeline thread marking some of the key milestones that built Prime Minister Viktor Orban's illiberal democracy in Hungary over his 16 years in power. His tenure looks likely to end tomorrow. The table stakes for Hungary and Europe could not be higher 1/

1 week ago 403 119 10 19
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There's growing disquiet in the military. The Iran war made it worse Since Trump began his second term, his administration's use of the armed forces has left a growing number in the military unsettled, according to NPR interviews with service members and advocates.

"Retention is the only thing holding the Army up, from a metrics standpoint. And it is crumbling fast" www.npr.org/2026/04/10/n...

1 week ago 4 4 0 0
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a massive global overview of policies enacted in response to the latest fossil fuel crisis.

Terrifying how many of these will help lock in fossil fuel reliance, worsen climate pollution, suck money from governments and subsidise rich people's overconsumption

www.iea.org/data-and-sta...

1 week ago 99 51 3 2
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On ceasefires and such promises

1 week ago 1 0 1 0
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Ghalibaf speaks.

1 week ago 582 245 39 33
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Inside Hungary’s Election Meltdown If you have Hungarian friends, check in on them. These past few weeks have been bonkers.

If you have Hungarian friends, please check in on them. Netflix has nothing on this election campaign: a twisting spy scandal, Russian meddling, Orbán off the rails. And we still have four days left.

I wrote a (still slightly incredulous) rundown 👇
brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/inside-hun...

1 week ago 86 39 0 4
"Get ready for Nuremberg"

"Get ready for Nuremberg"

Well said, British Airways

2 weeks ago 239 35 1 0
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ECB to European governments: Please please invest in renewables, it’ll make our job so much easier. Plain as day.

2 weeks ago 16 12 3 4

Economists call that selection bias. The most transatlantic people, at the utmost transatlantic conference in the most transatlantic country getting shitfaced with their own koolaid.

2 weeks ago 3 1 0 0
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We just need Germany to deny airspace and use of the Ramstein Base

3 weeks ago 2 0 0 0

x.com/g7/status/20... global imbalances report for the G7

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🇪🇸 L'Espagne, dont le gouvernement de gauche est "totalement opposé" aux attaques américano-israéliennes contre l'Iran, a fermé son espace aérien aux avions américains impliqués dans cette guerre, a annoncé lundi la ministre espagnole de la Défense.

3 weeks ago 188 53 12 12

without France?

3 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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Il faut « repenser les politiques commerciales, industrielles et de concurrence européenne face au “second choc chinois” » TRIBUNE. Pour éviter que les industriels européens passent en ordre dispersé des accords avec des groupes chinois, se livrant ainsi une concurrence délétère, l’Europe devrait poser un cadre juridique ...

Quelle réponse face au second choc chinois www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

3 weeks ago 1 1 0 1