IAC is one of the weirdest mispricings in my portfolio.
MGM + cash explain most of the value.
The rest is still being ignored.
That is exactly why I remain bullish.
New article: buff.ly/2KpTIts
Posts by Stefan Waldhauser
In terms of revenue, Uber is eight times bigger than Lyft, but its enterprise value is 30 times higher. Is this a fair premium for the market leader? While I don't think Uber is overvalued, I see Lyft as a bargain at those prices. $UBER $LYFT
Von über 8 Mio. Jugendlichen in D sollen angeblich weniger als 4% süchtig nach Social Media sein. In welcher Parallelwelt lebt diese "Experten"-Kommission? Ich beobachte in meinem Umfeld jedenfalls etwas anderes. Und ihr so? buff.ly/uYn1r9Y
Everyone’s worried about AI disruption of SaaS and platform companies. Meanwhile, management teams are buying their own companies at single-digit FCF multiples. That’s not fear — that’s conviction. Here are some examples from my portfolio: $PYPL $LYFT $MNDY $UPWK buff.ly/UVFZy4m
SpaceX wird der größte IPO aller Zeiten. Doch der Börsengang ist ein Skandal:
- verkürzte Wartezeit für den Nasdaq-100
- keine harte 10%-Free-Float-Hürde mehr
- das bedeutet Kaufzwang für ETFs und benchmarknahe Fonds
Ich halte das für brandgefährlich: buff.ly/D4v3mpD
Leider hat Elon es mit dem SoaceX IPO auch die ETF Sparer abgesehen. open.substack.com/pub/hightech...
The SpaceX IPO could become a historic example of how modern markets work:
-first create the scarcity,
-then accelerate index inclusion,
-then let ETFs and benchmark-driven funds do the buying.
That may be brilliant strategy for Elon.
But it is a dangerous precedent.
My full take: buff.ly/B8GNyWw
My exit from Twilio does not reflect a lack of confidence in the company’s operational performance. On the contrary: Twilio had a strong year 2025. My $TWLO exit is the result of a sober assessment of valuation and growth quality. buff.ly/GHBNMXv
Nach FreeNow (an LYFT) wird jetzt mit Blacklane das 2. spannende Mobilitäts-StartUp aus Deutschland (an UBER) in die USA verkauft. Warum sind die deutschen Auto-Hersteller nur so ambitionslos und verkaufen ihre Minderheits-Anteile anstatt solche Plattform-Unternehmen zu übernehmen? buff.ly/EbrBIEx
Die SAP Aktie ist gemessen am Cashflow jetzt wieder einmal für ein 20x Multiple zu haben. Das gab es in den vergangenen 10 Jahren nur ein einziges Mal (zu Zeiten der Pandemie). KI frisst Software - oder Einstiegschance?
Wie findet ihr die Darstellung der Insidertransaktionen auf aktien.guide ? Jetzt in Beta testen und gerne Feedback geben! buff.ly/PSwQRta
Die IONOS Aktie wirkt auf den ersten Blick fast langweilig. Und genau das macht sie interessant: 6,6 Mio. Kunden, hohe wiederkehrende Umsätze, steigende Margen, starke Cashflows – dazu eine europäische Cloud-Story, die in den kommenden Jahren deutlich an Relevanz gewinnen könnte. buff.ly/iPNeb0f
The new partnership between Uber and Rivian is significant. Ten thousand autonomous Rivian R2s on Uber would be four times the number of Waymo cars on the road today. buff.ly/TOs406l
It seems the strategic marriage between Microsoft and OpenAI is over. Will $MSFT really sue OpenAI over their planned partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS)? buff.ly/FxTrYXS
In 6 months UiPath went from $12 to nearly $20… and back to $12.
For a moment the market priced $PATH as an AI winner. Then the hype got erased.
I break down the Q4/FY26 numbers, FY27 guidance, valuation — and a plausible takeover optionality. 👉
With so many AV partnerships announced by Uber over the last couple of weeks, it's not easy to keep track of them all. This one with Nvidia could be very significant: the aim is to roll out the project globally in 28 cities across four continents by 2028. buff.ly/S064zqE
As a European investor, I have invested a large proportion of my stock portfolio in US technology stocks for many years. In light of the epochal change we are witnessing, I asked myself if it still makes sense to invest in US stocks from Europe. Here are my thoughts (no paywall): buff.ly/ZVXNOC1
Selten machte E-Auto fahren/ laden so viel Spaß wie heute. 🤩
If you are a MNDY shareholder (like I am), this long 75min interview with the co-founder and Co-CEO of Monday. com is definitely a good spend of your time: youtu.be/zjcYlEiwnKI
Elastic after Q3 FY26 is an AI winner stuck in the penalty box. Operating margin is improving and revenue is growing nearly 20%, but the stock keeps selling off. Why? Here's my update on the $ESTC investment case buff.ly/zKIAjhT
Wow. Here's the leaked memo from the Anthropic CEO to his employees after losing the Pentagon deal to OpenAI (paywalled). In it, he expresses strong criticism not only of OpenAI but also of his actual partner, Palantir according to the "safety theater" they played.
In light of Stripe's interest buying PayPal, the CEO's dismissal finally seems understandable. Alex Chriss was not replaced due to poor quarterly results, but because the board wants to prepare for a potential sale or breakup of PayPal. Here's what shareholders of $PYPL can expect: buff.ly/VtAJMW7
Was Alex Chriss fired to prepare for a sale of PayPal under new management? I can’t imagine $PYPL being sold for less than $60 per share. www.marketwatch.com/story/paypal...
Despite record cash flow and high margins, the freelancer platform Upwork from my portfolio is being treated like an AI loser. Here's why the re-rating of $UPWK could come sooner than expected: buff.ly/Hi5hHf1
The robotaxi era brings new challenges. What should be done if people forget to close the door after leaving? Waymo now pays DoorDash to help them out. buff.ly/GGkLSwG
Das SaaS Blutbad geht unvermindert weiter. In der Software-Branche selbst versteht es um mich herum niemand, denn von Disruption durch AI ist im Tagesgeschäft des Software-Business nix zu spüren. Die Tech-Börsen agieren gerade in einem Paralleluniversum zur realen Welt. buff.ly/sItusRW
Tough times for SaaS shareholders: $MNDY from my portfolio saw another sharp sell-off following the release of its Q4 results. They hit new lows, reaching a level not seen since the end of 2022. Here‘s my view on the situation: open.substack.com/pub/hightech...
It will be interesting to watch how Tesla's revenue estimates fall over the course of the year. Here’s the current status: analysts are still calling for 12% growth for no reason. Could you please help me to wake up the sell-side analysts and their ridiculous $TSLA growth estimates? buff.ly/WVUdtU3
Software stocks are crashing across the board due to a huge misunderstanding about agentic AI. I've now removed the paywall from what is probably my most important write-up of the year so far. It explains which software companies are really threatened by AI and which are not. buff.ly/jzJYt40