So much for the argument that the trade “deal” agreed with Trump provided certainty for the EU. Nothing will provide certainty with him in charge. Perhaps the European Parliament that still has to ratify the “deal” will take a stand and show that the EU is no pushover?
www.cnbc.com/2026/01/16/t...
Worth reposting in light of the US essentially giving Moscow its full backing
Graph of the evolution of EU15 integration in four datasets. All 4 datasets agree that the impact of borders has gone down over time. A recent paper which has gathered significant attention estimates a 45% tariff equivalent of intra-EU border costs. This column argues that this estimate is likely too high and depends on the particular dataset used and specific estimation choices. Therefore, it also vastly overstates the barriers that are akin to tariffs and could be lowered as a result of European Commission policy decisions. Instead, it argues that there are more urgent reforms with larger potential benefits, such as boosting EU innovation capacity and R&D spending.
@ckhead.bsky.social & @thierry-mayer.bsky.social argue that the recent estimate of an equivalent 45% tariff in intra-EU costs is likely too high & vastly overstates the barriers which could be lowered due to Commission policy decisions.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...
15 for 0 seems to be the new modo of DG trade. Maybe Europe got a great security deal in exchange for that… but somehow I doubt it
Not letting Zelensky alone in the Oval Office tomorrow is a good first step I suppose
Very sad when the US trade representative uses the European Commission comments as validation
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/07/o...
I believe the same holds for those caring about the European Union. This "deal" imposes external damage to the multilateral system AND internal damage to the EU, quite a performance...
Did the two parties even attend the same meeting?
The White House: "The EU will remove significant tariffs, including the elimination of all EU tariffs on U.S. industrial goods exported to the EU"
The EC: "Today we have also agreed on zero-for-zero tariffs on a number of strategic products."
Read more about how the EU could negotiate more effectively in our latest Kiel Policy Brief by @julianhi.nz, @ckhead.bsky.social, Isabelle Méjean, @emanuelornelas.bsky.social & @schularick.bsky.social
Graph of the exposure of the major car makers to US tariffs.
After 60 years of tariff-free trade in the auto industry, it seems clear that North America will now have large tariffs. @ckhead.bsky.social @thierry-mayer.bsky.social @vvicard.bsky.social & P Wibaux report on how big an impact the tariffs will have on the industry.
cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky
If you have 10 minutes to read about trade policy, read the chapter on 7 questions by Andres and Arnaud. If you 20 minutes, also read my chapter (with Thierry, Pauline, and Vincent) on Auto tariffs. @cepr.org
If you haven’t see this yet, watch and circulate widely. An uncompromisingly clear and truthful explanation of the historical moment the world faces and what Europe needs to do.
youtu.be/wmDVrV7QRrU?...
Our estimates are for 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican-made cars, and + 10 pp for European-made cars (with and without retaliation). The latter was probably optimistic, but it was the figure circulated by the US administration at some point. Will redo simulations when they settle on a number!