Given how chaotic the 2028 GOP primary will be I'm kind of shocked people feel confident enough to bet on this to the tune of 98 million dollars in the pool.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 J.D. Vance   55% Marco Rubio   8% Marjorie Taylor Greene   5% * 28 more outcomes $98.8M Vol.   Ends Nov 7, 2028 Presidential Election Winner 2028 JD Vance   29% Gavin Newsom   19% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez   9% * 26 more outcomes $130.1M Vol.   Ends Nov 7, 2028

JD Vance is frontrunner to be the 2028 GOP nominee and win the 2028 presidential election according to PolyMarket.

ChatGPT transcript: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Gavin Newsom   37% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez   12% Pete Buttigieg   6% * 36 more outcomes $319.3M Vol.   Ends Nov 7, 2028

Gavin Newsome is currently the frontrunner for 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee according to PolyMarket.

[read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll) 58% chance. At end of 2025, resolves based on the probability (rounded to 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%) that Trump ever (when above the age of 20) had any kind of sexual relations with a girl below the ...

Market: [read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)

Resolves based on subjective poll of Manifold users
manifold.markets/Conflux/did-...

Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year? 10% chance. If Tesla does at least 10,000 cab rides by year end and the service is still operational with any Tesla model (not restricted to Cyber cab), this market will resolve YES If Tesla rolls ou...

Market: Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year?

manifold.markets/aashiq/will-...

Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025? 54% chance. Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targ...

Chance of military conflict between US and Venezuela before end of year increases to 54%
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...

Will Trump brag on TV at least three hours after he receives the FIFA peace prize at the World Cup draw? 59% chance. FIFA has announced it has created a peace prize which it will presumably give to Trump at the draw for the World Cup on December 5th: https://bsky.app/profile/pbsnews.org/post/3m4wb3fc7j3...

Market: Will Trump brag on TV at least three hours after he receives the FIFA peace prize at the World Cup draw?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17? 45% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...

Chance of federal shutdown still in effect on the 17th has gone down 45%.
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...

Now 72%...

manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...

US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17? 60% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...

60% chance the government is still shut down on November 17th

manifold.markets/predyx_marke...

Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025? 55% chance. Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targ...

Market: Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?

manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...

Ladies and gentlemen, they got em.
www.bbc.com/news/article...

Will California billionaires have to pay 5% of their wealth because the mob demands it? 16% chance. The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth. https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/ Wil...

Market: Will California billionaires have to pay 5% of their wealth because the mob demands it?

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

I may have spoken too soon!

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term? 27% chance. The market resolves to “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibili...

Market: Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

manifold.markets/Soli/will-do...

Will Trump tear down the white house before the end of his 2nd term? 5% chance. Resolves YES if Trump tears down 90% or more of the original building as it stood at the end of Joseph Biden's term. Resolves NO otherwise. If Trump rebuilds a lookalike with modern wiring ...

Market: Will Trump tear down the white house before the end of his 2nd term?

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

2 notable 24-hour market movements Louvre robbers apprehended before Christmas? — Probability moved **47% → 36%** (2h) At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ? — Probability moved **56% → 70%** (3h) 3 notable 24-hour market movements Will a bot be at the top of manifold's all time profit leaderboard before 2026 — Probability moved **13% → 3%** (20h) At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ? — Probability moved **64% → 53%** (1d) AI market summary causes controversial resolution of M$10,000 or more befor… — Probability moved **46% → 31%** (1d)

Manifold was really weirdly overconfident about the Louvre thieves getting caught quickly.

US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17? 51% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...

Low participant count but 50/50 on shutdown until November 17 is crazy.

manifold.markets/predyx_marke...

The government will probably (78% chance) still be shut down on Halloween according to current Manifold.

At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ? 46% chance. Resolution Criteria The market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31st, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC, at least one individual officially identified by French authorities as a "main perpetrato...

Market: At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?

manifold.markets/Norocvit/at-...

Government shutdown markets seem to be moving. 70-something percent chance the shutdown lasts through Halloween now.

California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025? 94% chance. In response to Texas Republicans' redistricting efforts, California Governor Gavin Newsom has proposed a special election in November 2025 to allow voters to decide on new congressional ma...

Market: California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025?

manifold.markets/ShankarSivar...

The shutdown keeps dragging on, this line keeps going up, and prediction markets now suggest that it's more likely than not this will be the longest government shutdown in US history (previous record 35 days).

A surprisingly controversial question!

Curious what the split on this one will end up being.
bsky.app/profile/mani...

Will the IRS refer major Democratic donors for criminal prosecution by EoY 2026? 50% chance. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump wants to use the IRS to pursue criminal charges against major Democratic donors such as George Soros: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-...

Market: Will the IRS refer major Democratic donors for criminal prosecution by EoY 2026?

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

Will Twitter/X stop all monetization for blue checkmark users by the end of 2025? 21% chance.

Market: Will Twitter/X stop all monetization for blue checkmark users by the end of 2025?

manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...

Trump tries to serve a third term? 29% chance. Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms. This inc...

Market: Trump tries to serve a third term?

manifold.markets/Tiger/trump-...

Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first? 28% chance. Resolves according to the estimate for total turnout on Wikipedia, according to whatever count is cited the most prominently (this includes the organizer estimate, if most prominent). For...

Market: Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first?

manifold.markets/Sketchy/will...

Market: Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...