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Posts by Squawk Box

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🚨 Rockets @ 76ers — I price HOU 58%

Market: 55.5%

Why:
• Embiid probable, PG Q → Sixers wing risk
• Rockets without FVV/Adams (control hit)
• Philly home keeps it close
• Form favors HOU

Small edge. Real uncertainty.
This is pricing — not confidence.

#NBA #NBATwitter #Rockets #Sixers #Polymarket

3 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Nuggets vs Wizards

Jokic OUT. Valanciunas OUT.
Market didn’t move.

That’s the tell.

Denver already priced the injury — and still owns late-game execution.
Beat Washington without Jokic on Jan 17.

Market: 67.5%
My line: 69%

Small edge.
No panic.
Just math.

#NBA #NBATwitter #DenverNuggets

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Magic vs Hornets

Magic favored — but not clean.

Suggs likely OUT = perimeter defense leak.
Hornets get a real upset window.

Still:
🏠 Home court
📅 5 days rest vs 2
⚔️ 4–1 recent H2H

Market: Hornets 30.5%
My model: 29%

Right side ≠ free money.

#NBA #OrlandoMagic #SportsBetting #Probability

3 months ago 0 0 0 0

Result is in ✅
Still priced Cleveland correctly.

📥 565 in
📤 1000 out

Probability > narratives.
Follow for reads before tip-off.
#Polymarket #NBA #FedWatch

3 months ago 0 0 0 0

Result is in. Another NO wins.

Seattle — Jan 20
🌡️ 54°F or higher?

💵 $986 in → $1,000 out

Not a lottery ticket.
Not a sweat.

Just range logic doing its job.

These are the money pickup moments I look for.
Follow — I post them before they resolve.

#PredictionMarkets

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Cavs injuries are real — Garland (toe), Strus, Merrill all OUT.
Hornets offense trending up + home court + extra rest.

Market moved Cavs 59.5% → 56.5%.

I still land at ~62% due to Mitchell + Mobley/Allen floor.

Lean Cavs, medium confidence, higher variance than market implies.

3 months ago 0 0 0 1
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Money pickup moment again.

Seattle — Jan 20
🌡️ 54°F or higher?
I’m buying NO.

This setup is about ranges, not hope.

When probabilities misprice, you pick it up.

Follow — I post these before they resolve.

#Polymarket #FOMC #FedWatch

3 months ago 0 0 0 1

Result is in. NO wins.

I bought NO early.

💵 ~$964 in → ~$1,000 out

Clean range logic. Clean execution.

I share these calls before markets resolve.
Follow if you want the next one early.

#PredictionMarkets #ElonMusk

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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I’m buying NO on this Elon Musk market. Here’s why.

📊 Market: Elon Musk tweets (Jan 17–19, 2026)

My forecast range is 165–189 tweets (96.8% confidence).

Based on that range, NO is the higher-probability side — and that’s the position I’m taking.

#ElonMusk #PredictionMarkets

3 months ago 0 0 0 1
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Everyone’s watching the Fed — but nothing’s expected.
Jan FOMC is shaping up as a confirmation meeting, not a catalyst.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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A U.S. carrier strike group leaving the South China Sea for the Middle East is not a routine redeployment.
It’s a signal.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Accountability isn’t anti-law enforcement.
It’s the minimum requirement in a society that claims to value human life.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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A magic carpet, a grand vision, and two Western elites listening closely.
History suggests the landing is rarely as soft as the ride.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0

2026 stock market:
AI stocks moon
My portfolio: Still orbiting Earth.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0

Why did the trader break up with his girlfriend?
She had too much "correlation" to his losses.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0

Trump buys Greenland?
Next: Buys Greenland-backed stablecoin.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Crypto influencers: "We're early!"
Reality: We're late to the pump, early to the dump.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0

Elon: "Mars by 2030."
Me: "Can't even afford rent in Seattle by 2026."

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Reports allege Powell misled Congress over Federal Reserve renovation spending.
Key word: alleged.
But the implications are massive.

3 months ago 0 0 1 1
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Trump threatening “very severe things” if credit card rates stay high.
This is unprecedented pressure on consumer finance.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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This just went from meme to diplomacy.
When the Secretary of State shows up, it means talks are real.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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When humanoid robots in China and the U.S. can perform identical backflips, the race is no longer about demos — it’s about scale and deployment.

3 months ago 1 0 0 0
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If true, this is one of the most serious threats to Fed independence in U.S. history.
Interest rates are supposed to be set by data — not political pressure.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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🇺🇸 BREAKING: Trump says Americans may soon pay ZERO income tax.
“The money coming in is so enormous, you won’t even have income tax to pay.” 🔥🇺🇸

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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🚨 HOLY SMOKES: Trump just walked the U.S. out of 66 foreign organizations — including 31 UN entities.
Rubio: “I don’t CARE what the UN says!”
We’re done playing globalist games. 🔥🇺🇸

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Shoutout to whoever makes these videos 😂
Pure gold.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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🇺🇸 Trump on crypto:
“Once under siege. Not anymore.”
Crypto has become a major industry.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump’s 2026 State of the Union is officially scheduled for Feb 24.
Speaker Johnson has extended the invitation.
Get ready.
2026 = WINNING. 🔥🇺🇸

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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87% Costa Rica.
78% Chile.
77% Colombia.
76% Panama.
74% Peru.
These numbers don’t look like “US propaganda.” They look like regional frustration with Maduro.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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The uncomfortable truth:
China didn’t wait for perfect consensus.
They invested early, scaled fast, and now dominate batteries, EVs, and solar supply chains.

3 months ago 0 0 0 0