"measuring [LLM] agents’ relative issue saliences using party manifestos as a source of data is a harder problem than measuring their issue positions"
New article from @kenbenoit.bsky.social and Michael Laver on the challenges with LLMs measuring issue salience
Read here: doi.org/10.1080/0140...
Bulgaria is a country which has gone through these parties before, it has arguably the most volatile party system across Europe, and I would expect this trend to continue, party affiliation is mostly v weak — even the BSP now is just a footnote
This election will likely be the one that finally actually breaks the prolongued deadlock in Bulgarian politics, but it is probably not a long term new party system or anything — PB's victory is very much driven by the personal popularity of President Radev
So PB massively outperformed their polling and every other party (exc. PP-DB) underperformed
Comparisons of PB with Smer in Slovakia seem apt — interventionist economics w populist-conservative pro-Russia lean
(official count pending, but parallel counts showing broadly similar results)
Like Luxon's authority would be quite shot and it'd be hard to see him survive a full parliamentary term.
NZ First would be very much emboldened which may make coalition friction even more intense than in the first term.
Hipkins may even be able to stay on for another term
Thing is there would be nothing "wrong" in parliamentary terms about National forming government with the same coalition if they get a majority — but a party forming government on below 30% would be without precedent in NZ and it's not clear what the reaction would be to that
This Verian poll definitely better for Labour than others but the trend over this parliament is actually pretty clear:
—Labour making steady progress
—National on a steady decline
—NZ First on the rise
—Govt. coalition remains ahead of the opposition but those numbers keep bouncing around
Kezia Dugdale does seem genuinely pro-trans but I think her being so charitable to JK Rowling is v misguided and demonstrates exceedingly poor judgment. Rowling is not someone interested in having a reasonable debate or anything, she's someone who has been radicalised into extreme anti-trans views
When Angela Rayner underpaid £40,000 in stamp duty, Richard Tice said it was "morally completely indefensible” and she should resign if she had “any moral decency”.
Now we learn he set up four shell companies that let him avoid paying £100,000 he owed in tax and to then transfer the cash to Reform
Westminster no. of candidates
🔴LAB: 54 (=)
🔵CON: 54 (=)
🟣RFM: 54 (+54)
🟢GRN: 54 (+51)
🟠LD: 45 (-6)
👤IND: 1 (=)
⚙️WPB: 1 (+1)
(+/- 2022)
Westminster has the lowest amount of non-major party candidates across London
Wandsworth no. of candidates
🔴LAB: 58 (=)
🔵CON: 58 (=)
🟠LD: 58 (+13)
🟣RFM: 58 (+58)
🟢GRN: 53 (+16)
👤IND: 5 (+3)
🚩TUSC: 4 (+2)
🏘️WIG: 1 (+1)
(+/- 2022)
WIG: Wandle Independent Group
Independent cllr in West Hill ward Malcolm Grimstead is running for re-election — got very high vote in 2018 & 2022
My hot take is that local government branding is very underrated in importance.
Not to get all wanky but it does quite literally shape the look and feel of how you interact with your municipality which contributes the way in which you conceptualise local indentity and your sense of place
It's quite welcome given that many recent London council rebrands have been not very good imo.
Merton and Islington were fine but not brilliant
Harrow's was just god-awful (Harrow Tories boasted that it cost less than £500, uh yeh guys it shows)
Haringey's was just a massive downgrade
Hadn't seen that Wandsworth had done a quite extensive rebrand. Definitely a big improvement — the old one was very old fashioned and boring. This is quite simple but effective I think.
grandad.digital/case-studies...
Chingford & Woodford Green Community Independents — a continuation of Faiza Shaheen's independent campaign — is standing 6 candidates in 2 wards here, but they're not a registered party so they're only on the ballot as Independents.
Looks like the Greens are standing down for them in those wards.
Waltham Forest no. of candidates
🔴LAB: 60 (=)
🔵CON: 60 (=)
🟢GRN: 52 (+33)
🟠LD: 45 (+6)
🟣RFM: 43 (+40)
🚩TUSC: 18 (-6)
👤IND: 10 (+6)
🔺WHIS: 2 (+2)
🔺YRP: 1 (+1)
(+/- 2022)
WHIS: Waltham Forest Independent Socialists
Only just saw this in relation to it. Not as big of a problem as I had thought then.
democracyclub.org.uk/blog/2026/04...
Our plans are measured in centuries
Tower Hamlets no. of candidates
🏘️ASP: 45 (+1)
🔴LAB: 45 (=)
🔵CON: 45 (=)
🟢GRN: 43 (+8)
🟠LD: 43 (-2)
🏘️THI; 43 (+43)
🟣RFM: 35 (+35)
🚩TUSC: 8 (+6)
👤IND: 5 (+4)
⏩FOR: 1 (+1)
(+/- 2022)
THI: Tower Hamlets Independents
FOR: Forward Party
Many of these ballot papers are like 20+ candidates long!
Sutton no. of candidates
🟠LD: 55 (=)
🔵CON: 55 (=)
🔴LAB: 55 (=)
🟢GRN: 55 (+39)
🟣RFM: 55 (+55)
👤IND: 5 (-8)
✝️CPA: 1 (=)
(+/- 2022)
Southwark no. of candidates
🔴LAB: 63 (=)
🟠LD: 63 (=)
🔵CON: 63 (=)
🟢GRN: 61 (+23)
🟣RFM: 35 (+33)
👤IND: 4 (+3)
🔺SIS: 1 (+1)
🟥COM: 1 (+1)
🏗️BUI: 1 (+1)
(+/- 2022)
SIS: Southwark Independent Socialists
BUI: Build Party
I guess it's embarrassing to acknowledge that they messed up the paperwork or whatever happened here but like if Greens are not on the ballots as Greens then campaign material seriously needs to compensate for this — I'm curious what it looks like at the moment.
Richmond upon Thames no. of candidates
🟠LD: 54 (+6)
🔵CON: 54 (=)
🔴LAB: 54 (=)
🟣RFM: 45 (+45)
👤IND: 42 (+40)
🟢GRN: 15 (+9)
(+/- 2022)
Uhh this is weird... Greens in 13 of 18 wards are on the ballot without a description. And there is no acknowledgement of this online or on their socials??
Redbridge no. of candidates
🔴LAB: 63 (=)
🔵CON: 63 (=)
🟣RFM: 56 (+55)
🟢GRN: 46 (+35)
🏘️RI: 42 (+42)
🟠LD: 30 (+11)
👤IND: 10 (+10)
🏘️RM: 9 (+9)
🚩RTUP: 1 (+1)
(+/- 2022)
RI: Redbridge Independents
RM: Redbridge Matters
RTUP: Redbridge Trade Union Party
Two round runoff voting is better than FPTP but it's still just a worse version of AV. In Peru we may end up with a runoff where the two candidates combined didn't even break 30%! Mental!
This happened in 2021 as well. Interested to know what makes Peruvian presidential elections so fragmented.
So did Sam Levinson just luck out with Euphoria S1+2 cause everything else he's done seems to be crap and Euphoria S3 is uhhh no exception. Why did he think Rue becoming a drug mule would be an interesting plot line, I literally don't care — "oooo it's like a western", so fucking what.
Newham no. of candidates
🔴LAB: 66 (=)
🟢GRN: 66 (=)
🔵CON: 66 (=)
🏘️NIP: 66 (+66)
🟣RFM: 37 (+34)
🟠LD: 23 (+5)
✝️CPA: 18 (-8)
👤IND: 14 (+7)
🚩TUSC: 2 (-2)
⚙️WPB: 1 (+1)
🐰CUP: 1 (+1)
(+/- 2022)
NIP: Newham Independents Party — they've been doing well in by-elections
CUP: Communities United Party
But I don't want to be a downer. We can definitely celebrate the end of Orbán tonight!!!
And you can only sustain a voter coalition on being the anti-Fidesz for so long. Eventually people will want change, whether that comes sooner or later remains to be seen though.
I do think Tisza has this long term problem — they have attracted many voters today who simply wanted to get rid of Orbán above all but really they want someone more liberal. Tisza will now have to make choices in government which will inevitably disappoint some of these voters.