Outside of the top prospects, I'm looking forward to seeing where Elijah Sarratt gets selected in the NFL Draft
Among the 2026 class, he ranks as:
WR3 in Experience-Adjusted Production
WR2 in Receiving Yards/Team Pass Attempt
WR1 in QBR when Targeted
WR4 in Yards per Route Run
Excited to receive an invite to #SFB16 and support a great cause in @fantasycaresorg.bsky.social - check out all the amazing work that they do!
Equally excited that the divisions this year are based on video games & that #KingdomHearts is one of the options! One of my all-time favorites.
Anyone up for a Rookie Mock Draft on @sleepernfl.bsky.social?
• SuperFlex
• 3 Rounds
• Slow Draft with a 4 hour clock
• 12 Teams
We’ll start as soon as it’s full. Join in!
sleeper.app/draft/nfl/13...
The first video game I ever played and one I still enjoy to this day. How has it been 24 years?!
Agreed. Really puts into perspective that not every RB1 or RB2 are equal.
How do this year's RB1 and RB2 compare to the last decade of prospects in my rookie RB model?
2026 projects to have the largest gap between the RB1 (Jeremiyah Love) and the projected RB2
2017 has the smallest percentile gap with two elite prospects in CMC & Leonard Fournette
Finally, how does this class compare to recent drafts:
• Sadiq is a Top 5 prospect, but would only be the TE3 in the 2025 class
• Stowers ranks within the top 6, right behind Fannin Jr
• Brock Bowers remains the highest graded TE in my model since 2013
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Outside of the 70th percentile, hit rates drop significantly
Despite that, TE prospects who stand out and could be late-round dynasty targets based on their production or athletic scores:
• Justin Joly
• Tanner Koziol
• Eli Raridon
• Sam Roush
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Max Klare - Ohio State:
• Positive Experience-Adjusted Career Production
• 95th Percentile R-Sophomore Season
• TE2 in class in Best Season Rec Yards per Team Pass Attempt
Klare projects as the TE3 in this class, with upside to improve after his pro day
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Eli Stowers stands out as one of the most productive TEs in this class
Despite starting his career as a QB, Stowers finished with back-to-back +90th percentile seasons
He leads the class in multiple production metrics and ranks in the ~90th percentile as an athlete
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My current TE1:
Kenyon Sadiq - Oregon
Despite only a 78th percentile schedule-adjusted production score, his elite athletic profile (99th %ile) + projected 1st Rnd capital are enough to push him to the +90th percentile in my model
Closest comps: Noah Fant & OJ Howard
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TE1 Breakout Rates by Percentile
90th - 99th: 94% Hit Rate
80th - 90th: 29%
70th - 80th: 19%
60th - 70th: 14%
60th & Below: 3.5%
The best prospects who check most, if not all, boxes (production, athleticism, draft capital) grade in the +90th percentile
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Tight End Prospect Model
2026 Class
Below are the pre-draft results of my TE prospect model, which uses production, athleticism & projected draft capital to evaluate the 2026 class
Breakdowns, hit rates, & comps in the thread below!
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Carnell Tate’s combine performance barely moved him in my process. For now, he remains the 94th percentile when we factor in adjusted production, efficiency, and estimated draft capital
He still projects to be one of the better WRs in recent drafts:
Based on prospects drafted since 2010, with the exception of YPRR (since 2017 only)
Production metrics = college career
Correlation (R2 - 0 to 1) to NFL Points/Game for WR prospects
3 Cone: 0.001
40 Time: 0.015
Vertical: 0.011
Yards/Route Run: 0.12
Rec Yds/Team Pass Att: 0.16
Exp Adjusted Production: 0.25
Draft Capital: 0.35
Don’t let the combine drastically change your opinion on a WR prospect!
5 spots left! The 1.01 is also still available 👀
Come draft with me.
Anyone up for a Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft?
• Slow Draft (4 Hour Clock)
• 12 Teams
• PPR Format
Join in!
sleeper.app/draft/nfl/13...
Always love jumping on the @dynastyhotseat.bsky.social to talk about rookies and prospects
Check it out as we talk about my initial Top 12 prospects in a Dynasty SuperFlex draft
youtu.be/0cOeC5vslCQ
Framing it this way really helps put it into perspective
Haha! I will say, there’s a reason the big 3 are all in one tier. I don’t think you can go wrong with any one of them
Right now, it’d probably be Tate!
Finally, below is a quick snapshot of how the 2026 class compares to the last two drafts
While there isn't a prospect that grades as high as Harrison Jr, Nabers, or McMillan, the 2026 class still holds 3 of the Top 7 WR prospects over the last three years
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While there are 16 WRs projected in the first 3 rounds per the Mock Draft Database, hit rates drop significantly after the 70th percentile
WRs who still stand out based on efficiency/production:
• Ja'Kobi Lane (leads class in EPA per Play)
• Eric McCalister
• Dane Key
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Denzel Boston & Omar Cooper Jr lead the next tier
Boston averaged over 37% of Washington's receiving production in his final two seasons
Cooper Jr. did not break out until his final season, but he was always highly efficient (WR2 with a 75% career Success Rate)
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Outside of Tyson, the only WRs in this class with positive experience-adjusted production:
✅ KC Concepcion
✅ Elijah Sarratt
Concepcion holds one of the most productive true freshman seasons (96th %ile)
Sarratt also leads this class in EPA Success Rate (99th %ile)
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Tyson's production is truly elite. He would be WR1 if we only looked at Market Share/Adjusted Production (98th percentile)
Lemon stands out with his efficiency (0.78 EPA/Play & 67% Success Rate). His Junior season was also one of the better campaigns in this class.
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With that being said, there's a clear Top 3:
Carnell Tate
Jordyn Tyson
Makai Lemon
What makes each of them special?
Tate leads this group in EPA per Play (0.81) & Success Rate (70%). His production profile also gets a boost when you adjust for schedule/competition.
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First off, it's important to evaluate this class by Percentile & Hit Rates:
90th - 99.9th: 74%
80th - 90th: 43%
70th - 80th: 36%
60th - 70th: 21%
60th & below: 4%
In other words, it matters less that Tate ranks higher than Lemon when both are in the +90th percentile
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