This was lightly tongue-in-cheek but something that I do struggle with is that I am told over and over again to prioritize the white working class while that block has voted to make my life and the lives of the people I love worse. Why shouldn’t I advocate for me instead?
dems created an expanded 'covid' welfare state under trump, republicans strangled it under biden
swing voters credited trump & blamed biden for that respectively
there's a moral here, of a sort
Arguably James Talarico is equally far left
Yes I presented a spectrum and he’s on the left end of it
The correct answer is to get to the airport precisely on time. Why are people fighting about this
A tweet from Pope Leo XIV that reads: “When simulation becomes the norm, it weakens the human capacity for discernment. As a result, our social bonds close in upon themselves, forming self-referential circuits that no longer expose us to reality. We thus come to live within bubbles, impermeable to one another. Feeling threatened by anyone who is different, we grow unaccustomed to encounter and dialogue. In this way, polarization, conflict, fear and violence spread. What is at stake is not merely the risk of error, but a transformation in our very relationship with truth.”
Apparently the Pope has read Baudrillard.
Coachella is trying to wipe all of the footage of The Strokes protest set so I’m gonna post it here. The last images on the screen made me cry.
Isn’t it just general frustration in society (at prices, social media, highly visible inequality), in every country, which is taken out on incumbents? It’s not only the left of the left who succeed in this environment. James Talarico, Graham Platner, Peter Magyar, Zach Polanski are all succeeding
This is a lot less than I had previously understood
New Gallup Poll Results:
A Record High 79% of Americans Now Say Immigration Benefits the United States
news.gallup.com/poll/692522/...
If it won’t fly they probably won’t build it. You’re imagining an extremely unlikely red herring to get mad about. (I work for a developer fyi)
Mills seems irrelevant
Brad Lander now declares he opposes all U.S. aid for Israel, including for Iron Dome missile defense, after previously supporting defensive aid, citing human rights as he looks to unseat Rep. Dan Goldman, @jacobkornbluh.bsky.social reports exclusively in @forward.com.
Harass? What are you talking about?
Ahh good point about overtime
Though good point it’s weird rail is falling under
Overhiring? Why did they so exceed 2019 levels?
Iran (con’t). One dynamic we have seen discussed repeatedly is that idea that spot markets reflect more scarcity than futures. That argument is used to imply the “paper” futures market is full of wild speculation that will prove incorrect as physical market flows eventually wash out shorts. We disagree. Physical markets were certainly very tight and tightening rapidly in late March and early April, but since last week they have eased considerably. That’s true across both geographies and for products versus spot crude as shown in the chart below. To be sure, physical market prices slowing down are also speculative; Hormuz remains closed. But it’s also clear that buyers are counting on flows resuming near-term which means they can run inventories dangerously low without buying aggressively. The decline in crude oil futures is mirroring easing of the physical market. With a chart of spot oil and diesel prices for Europe, Singpaore, etc
Pushing back on a narrative I see a lot here (and in lots of other places!)
🔴⚠️ Gulf and European officials see us needing 6 months for Iran deal
Just when I thought I couldn’t love this guy any more. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/n...
People will be closely studying how Hungary's opposition pulled off their win in such a pro-incumbent system. Important to note that the theme was corruption. Democrats need to get much better at calling out Trump's corruption.
Gábor Tóka & team have just published revised results 😱
2026.kozvelemeny.org/reszletes
a NINE-IN-TEN chance for an opposition majority
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🟠
Chart showing baseline pass through estimates for tariffs. Note: Pass-through coefficients are cumulative. A value of 1 means full dollar-for-dollar pass-through of tariffs into relative consumer prices. The regression sample period is January 2024 – February 2026, and observations are unweighted. 90% confidence intervals are displayed, and standard errors are clustered by PCE category. Source: Authors' calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection. Accessible version
Chart showing YoY core goods PCE prices and a counter-factual without tariffs. Note: Core goods PCE inflation in February 2026 is an FRB staff estimate. The dashed line represents the average 12-month percent change in published core goods PCE prices from January 2015 – December 2019. Source: Authors' calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.
Great FEDS Note estimating ~100% cumulative pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices and negative core goods prices if not for tariffs.
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
The good news? "We also estimate that pass-through from the 2025 tariffs is effectively complete."
ROSENBERG: “.. Confidence in government policy in general fell a hard -10 points to 40.0, the lowest ever, and that covers the Vietnam War and Watergate. In one word or less — horrible. .. No wonder the proletariat is losing faith in the government — and it transcends this unpopular war.”
#UMich
Good point. And even if the automated world can still make use of 1B workers (formal + informal), can its markets and institutions, which don’t exactly resemble the US or the Chinese models, sustain 5-10% growth long enough to catch up?
Right, he wrote at the perfect time to be led astray by the US panic about Japan. (Maybe he should’ve included a coda on the Plaza Accords). At least he included a smart discussion of China’s potential. India complicates this a bit but will be relevant soon enough
Classic Paul Kennedy stuff
The issue that America confronts is *precisely* the issue that Britain and Germany confronted in the 1890s and early 1900s - an overseas industrial behemoth that can produce a huge amount for dirt cheap because it is several times larger than you are.
At least ridership is booming. A financial turning point is (maybe) conceivable in the next decade
