Just now, Israeli forces struck targets in Iran.

Is Ukraine's position improving? What's Russia's breaking point? Is House of Dynamite accurate? Answering your questions (part one)

Thanks to readers for so many questions - more than can be answered in one post. Topics covered include implications of Ukraine being able to counterattack now, why Putin keeps on going, threats to UK, China, arms control, and House of Dynamite (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

A New Way of Warfare Requires More Than New Tech When I look back at my 45 years of military service, one of the highlights of my military education was a battlefield tour I participated in during 2001

“Ukraine’s battlefield technologies — especially drones — do not yet constitute a new way of warfare. Instead, they function mainly as substitutions for missing capabilities and have produced stalemate rather than decisive maneuver.”

Europe’s failure to condemn Trump’s illegal aggression in Venezuela isn’t just wrong – it’s stupid | Nathalie Tocci The more European countries act as colonies, unable and unwilling to stand up to Trump, the more they’ll be treated as such, says Guardian Europe columnist Nathalie Tocci

Europe’s failure to condemn Trump’s illegal aggression in Venezuela isn’t just wrong – it’s stupid. My piece @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

At least 60,000 murdered in Sudanese city, which resembles ‘a slaughterhouse’ Satellite evidence shows extent of paramilitary massacre in El Fasher

So, El Fasher looks like one of the worst single event atrocities to happen this century so far, but the evidence has come in such a trickle it seems to only now be getting verified

When Trust Becomes Strategy: Rethinking America's Innovation Posture U.S. allies have long balanced between leaning on American leadership and resisting its immense gravitational pull: political, economic, and structural.

America’s allies are adapting to a new reality: leadership without reliability.

The financial crisis theory of everything Last month there was a fascinating poll from More in Common asking people to pick the main reason Britain is “on the wrong track”.

New post just out:

"The financial crisis theory of everything"

Why the 2008 crash was the WW1 of our generation that led to nearly all of the problems we have today - from the rise of the radical right to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

A comprehensive assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo will be published tomorrow morning in my newsletter.

I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe.

Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/ins...

Expedition reveals 13 shipwrecks from WWII battles off Guadalcanal An expedition led by Ocean Exploration Trust (OET) aboard Exploration Vessel (E/V) Nautilus has just completed comprehensive archaeological surveys of more than a dozen vessels lost during the World W...

Expedition reveals 13 shipwrecks from WWII battles off Guadalcanal

phys.org/news/2025-08...

Russia's accused of murdering 11 civilians in the Central African Republic.

AP reports the Wagner group (now directly controlled by the Kremlin since they murdered Prigozhin) shot dead the locals at a gold mine they control in Ndassima in CAR.

Mission authorization aims to oversee unregulated private space activities but risks creating unnecessary or harmful rules unless policymakers first define clear outcomes and appropriate tools to achieve them, writes CSIS's Clayton Swope.

Read the full commentary here: cs.is/3GK07y6

Bring Back the Spirit of Bandung The 1955 conference’s value-based approach to international affairs offers a model for middle powers today.

“Bring back the spirit of Bandung”. Delighted to coauthor this piece w Galip Dalay and Faisal Devji @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/11/b...

Satellite images show Chinese 'invasion barge' exercise near Shanghai (next to a missile boat base). Visible here 2025-06-28 - 2025-07-03. Exercise likely started a bit earlier. #OSINT

RUSI Experts React to US Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Our experts comment on the US strikes of three Iranian nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow.

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Four Ways to Deal With Fordow `And how the Iran/Israel war might end

Four possible ways to deal with the Iranian underground uranium enrichment and ending the war with Israel. My blog markurban.substack.com/p/four-ways-...

Will Iran Surrender? What might the endgame look like for the regime and for Israel?

Will Iran Surrender?
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

Five things to remember about war:

How Iran Lost Before It Lost: The Roll Back of Its Gray Zone Strategy - War on the Rocks "Today, you can get in a car in Tehran and get out in the Dahia, Beirut." Five years and two months after Gen. Qasem Soleimani made this statement, the

Iran’s gray zone strategy was already unraveling before it lost its regional partners. What went wrong? (Originally published Jan. 2025). warontherocks.com/20...

'Russian bombers are burning en masse' — Ukraine's SBU drones hit 'more than 40' aircraft in mass attack, source claims "Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3," a source told the Kyiv Independent.

If even a fraction of this is true, it’s a remarkable achievement & a mark of how far Ukr deep strike has come. ‘An operation by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has hit ‘more than 40" Russian bombers at air bases “in the rear of the Russian Federation”…’ kyivindependent.com/enemy-bomber...

In Memoriam,
Joseph S. Nye, jr.

10 years later.

Donald Trump's tariffs are based on bizarre math—The numbers explained The administration appears to have used a simple, two-step formula to calculate the "reciprocal tariffs" applied to trading partners.

www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...

Europe's Nuclear Latency Problem European nuclear proliferation, extended deterrence, and non-nuclear alternatives

Hi all,

I sent out my latest newsletter earlier today, discussing what I refer to as Europe's nuclear latency problem.

As such, there is no nuclear "quick fix" to Europe's security situation.

You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/europes-lo...

Quick summary below:

1/5

***UPDATE***

I hate being right about things. #OSINT

What looks like the first photos of China’s ‘invasion barges’ we first reported in naval news recently www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

The front barge (self propelled) is the smallest type, some are twice this size

More or less as anticipated in my last post (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/putins-dil...

Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity are unconditional.

Our priority must now be strengthening Ukraine and providing robust security guarantees.

In any negotiation, Europe must have a central role.

Our Weimar+ statement ↓

Articles of a Trump ‘Peace’ Plan A quick assessment of the evolving ‘peace’ plan being developed by the Trump administration.

A short thread summarising my new article on the current White House approach to ‘peace’ in Ukraine. 1/9
mickryan.substack.com/p/articles-o...

Baltic states begin historic switch away from Russian power grid More than 30 years after leaving the Soviet Union, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will join the EU's grid.

www.bbc.com/news/article...

NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb. 6, 2025: Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 6. 1/4

Full report: isw.pub/UkrWar020625