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Posts by Aaron Schatz

Fernando Mendoza Far Ahead of Other Prospects in QBASE Projections for 2026 In our QBASE projections, one quarterback clearly stands out for 2026.

Here are the 2026 QBASE projections, which will also run on ESPN tomorrow.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/fernando...

1 day ago 5 1 0 0

Last year, the Steelers had the league's biggest reverse split on play action. They had just 4.2 yards per play with play action compared to 6.5 on pass plays without it.

This was the *11th* straight year the Steelers had a reverse split even though most teams are better with play action.

2 days ago 21 1 2 1

A tidbit from putting together FTN Almanac 2026 comments:

2025 was the second year that Atlanta ranked last in using empty formations, but that's likely to change because Tua Tagovailoa really likes working from empty. Miami has ranked in the top three for empty backfields for the last three years.

2 days ago 10 2 0 0
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🎬 @jeffratcliffe.bsky.social's Rookie Fantasy Scouting Guide is LIVE!

Your ultimate draft resource with full breakdowns on 125+ prospects 👀

ftnfantasy.com/fantasy/nfl/...

2 days ago 2 2 0 1
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2026 NFL Draft: There's a Tight End for Everyone The 2026 NFL draft features every kind of tight end and they could play big roles as rookies.

Guest column by @danpizzuta.bsky.social on @ftnfantasy.com looks at the different tight ends in the 2026 draft. Don't be surprised if these guys make an impact as rookies.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2026-nfl...

2 days ago 11 4 0 0
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Dodgers great Davey Lopes, four-time All-Star, dies at 80 Davey Lopes, a speedy four-time All-Star who won the World Series with the Dodgers in 1981, died Wednesday at the age of 80 after a battle with Parkinson's disease.

Davey Lopes passed away. One of my favorite players as a kid, I rooted for the Cubs where he got traded in 1984.

www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/...

3 days ago 46 3 1 1
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FTN is partnering with the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Center to provide advanced charted data to students to help prepare them for a career in sports data and analysis.

Special thanks to @stat-ron.bsky.social for being a leader in this partnership.

3 days ago 22 9 1 3

The Too Deep 96: Draft coverage for the rest of us.

3 days ago 12 2 1 0
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Working on the 2020 Draft, Six Years Later piece, and reading some of the Takes of the Time.

Yeah, what was Howie Roseman thinking, taking a backup quarterback in the second round.

4 days ago 50 4 6 0
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Join the team that collects Advanced NFL Stats!

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4 days ago 4 3 0 1

Two teams last year never put a sixth OL on the field: the Rams and the 49ers, led by the league's two most lauded offensive masterminds.

4 days ago 33 1 1 4
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Bo Nix Leads Again in 2025 Failed Completions Bo Nix once again led the league in failed completions, but showed great improvement from 2024. The Browns quarterbacks, on the other hand.

New at @ftnfantasy.com from @brykno.bsky.social: an analysis of failed completions numbers from 2025. Bo Nix led the league in dump-offs, but with fewer than his rookie season and fewer in Wk 10-18 than in Wk 1-9.

Also, why can't Browns QBs throw downfield?

ftnfantasy.com/bo-nix-leads...

4 days ago 10 5 2 0

Yeah. This is how I tend to feel these days.

4 days ago 75 3 1 0

(It’s not FTN since we don’t do college right now but I know how much work we put into our NFL data!)

4 days ago 0 0 0 0

I don’t know if I missed it but please make sure to attribute where you get advanced charting stats. They take a lot of work to collect!

4 days ago 4 0 2 0
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We All Float On: A Weekend Aboard The Modest Mouse Cruise “What’s up, floaters?!” The Norwegian Pearl is pulling away from Miami Cruise Terminal B, and hundreds of people are gathered on the pool deck, waiting for the show to begin. The friendly thirtysometh...

You may not subscribe to Stereogum, but this is an awesome article by @chrisdeville.bsky.social about something you would never imagine was a thing, but the article does a beautiful job of explaining and exploring the Modest Mouse Cruise.

stereogum.com/2493841/we-a...

5 days ago 23 3 2 1
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Snap-Weighted Age for 2025 Defenses: Better Nickel Equals Better Defense Lighter defenses were better in 2025, despite the rise of base personnel on offense.

Being small wasn't a weakness... it was the blueprint for an elite unit.

@brykno.bsky.social dives into the data to see why speed and agility are now more important than size on defense 🤔

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/snap-wei...

6 days ago 6 1 2 0
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2026 NFL draft edge rusher projections: Rankings, comps Which prospects will have the most sacks through five NFL seasons? We projected the top edge rushers in the 2026 draft class.

SackSEER projections for this years draft, with a very deep edge rusher class. www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...

6 days ago 26 3 1 1
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Stars get the glory but role players win championships 🏆

@commishfilmroom.bsky.social uses NBA StatsHub to identify the X-factors who could define the 2026 postseason 🤔

ftnfantasy.com/nba/3-player...

6 days ago 3 1 0 0
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2026 NFL draft edge rusher projections: Rankings, comps Which prospects will have the most sacks through five NFL seasons? We projected the top edge rushers in the 2026 draft class.

SackSEER projections for this years draft, with a very deep edge rusher class. www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...

6 days ago 26 3 1 1
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2026 NFL draft running back projections: Rankings, comps We have stat projections for the top running back prospects in the 2026 NFL draft class, from Jeremiyah Love to late-round sleepers.

BackCAST running back projections are here. It’s Love and some other dudes, not a good class, but there are some useful players. www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...

1 week ago 14 1 1 0
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God forbid you mock Ty Simpson to the Jets at 16.

1 week ago 296 8 39 5
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2026 NFL draft wide receiver projections: Rankings, comps Which receivers in the 2026 draft class will have the most success in the pros? We have projections for the top prospects.

Interrupting my vacation to bring you the 2026 Playmaker Scores for draft wide receivers. A fine class at the top, thinner in the middle. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

1 week ago 25 2 1 0

Heading out on vacation tomorrow so posting will be light for the next week.

2 weeks ago 30 0 10 0

Probably as running routes, not as blockers.

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0

Last year, Tua Tagovailoa had an adjusted sack rate of only 4.5% on first downs, 2.4% on second downs, and then an absurd 17.3% on third downs.

2 weeks ago 26 1 2 0
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Ratcliffe's NFL Mock Draft 2.0 The board just got flipped. Jeff Ratcliffe’s 2026 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 includes a big trade, surging prospects, and a few picks that won’t sit well with everyone.

Need to fill your mock draft fix? @ftnfantasy.com has you covered.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/ratcliff...

2 weeks ago 11 4 1 0

More fun from FTN Almanac 2026 tables: the Rams used the most average blockers on a pass play last year (5.50) and the Jets used the lowest average (5.16).

2 weeks ago 12 0 2 0

Yes, you would expect to see them with Minnesota and Cleveland, definitely. I was surprised too!

2 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

Here's an interesting question. Which DEFENSES in the NFL in 2025 faced the most runs over expected? This normalizes for down, distance, score of the game, etc.

Most runs vs.: MIN, BUF, GB, CLE, CAR

Fewest runs vs.: TEN, JAX, TB, BAL, DEN

2 weeks ago 21 0 2 1