Morning 👏

Playing around with RAPM in football. Don't attack me yet; I'm just having some Sunday fun.

#BestaDeildKarla

Mijnans, what a player.

Apparently sharing non-authentic stuff? Which is wild, and I appealed the decision and they said the account would be restored because there was nothing wrong. 8 days pending now lol.

Since being suspended on the other app, I've been so quiet really. Crazy how much more at ease you can feel without that type of media.

Morning.

Been thinking a lot about my work and how
It should be better. Creating metrics is one thing, but being aware of the theoretical framework in mathematics and statistics, is a whole different thing.

I created my own xPass model and wanted to add time-to-execute variables. While it did add to better predictions, using event data only does also make the quality of the model lower.

Nonetheless, such a fun project.

Faster decisions, harder passes? Introducing Time-to-Execute in xPass-models There was a time when I had the means and energy to write a new article every week, but with the appalling state of the world and genuinely…

Faster decisions, harder passes? Introducing Time-to-Execute in xPass-models

marclamberts.medium.com/faster-decis...

Morningggg

I probably should start using this more.

Glicko-2 totally fried my brain today.

Lol my Twitter account suspended

The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? Once in a while, I have this illusion that I’m well-equipped enough to write a more data-journalistic piece. Don’t worry, the urge will…

The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? ⚽️

I looked at zone 14 usage in the Premier League from 2021-22 to 2025-26 and found that zone 14 still plays a vital role in attack, but in much different and less dominant ways than we might think.

marclamberts.medium.com/the-stagnati...

Introducing Entropy-Adjusted Expected Goals (xG-adj) You can’t escape it if you are interested in football: Expected Goals (xG). Every football app has it listed with the shot data; you can’t…

Introducing Entropy-Adjusted xG: Measuring Repeatability in Attacking Performance 💻📊

Using entropy-analysis to see which part of traditional xG can be reproduced regardless of season, club or level. Case study with 4+ seasons of Premier League shots.

marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...

Morning.

The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? Once in a while, I have this illusion that I’m well-equipped enough to write a more data-journalistic piece. Don’t worry, the urge will…

The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? ⚽️

I looked at zone 14 usage in the Premier League from 2021-22 to 2025-26 and found that zone 14 still plays a vital role in attack, but in much different and less dominant ways than we might think.

marclamberts.medium.com/the-stagnati...

Morning! Have a great day 😊

Thank you John!

Birthday. Chapter 34. Never thought I would make it, but here we are. Bless you my friends.

Modelling Post-Save Rebound Sequences with Hidden Markov Models Goalkeeper data analysis is one of the hardest things I have experienced doing in this space. So why do I keep challenging myself to do it…

Modelling Post-Save Rebound Sequences with Hidden Markov Models

Using event data from Swedish Allsvenskan, I try to find value from parried saves and post-save sequences using Hidden Markov Models and Logistic Regression with Lasso-Ridge regularisation.

marclamberts.medium.com/modelling-po...

Morning!

It's good to remind myself that my worth is absolutely not in the reaction of social media to my models; however, it can be hard to put in all these hours to share something in public and get no response.

Expected Shot Danger: building an alternative to xG Expected goals. I don’t even know where to start with how I feel about this particular metric, but I’m going to try it anyway. I feel that…

Expected Shot Dange: Building an alternative to xG

marclamberts.medium.com/expected-sho...

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls Football metrics and models are also under the influence of trends within football. One of these trends is the use of set pieces to…

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention.

How can we add value to second balls and create meaningful insights from them?

marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...

My new project: Rebound Value Models.

My first look (WIP) at adding value to parries and consequent rebounds after shots. Using Hidden Markov Models to generate different insights.

Full article and explanation coming soon.

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls Football metrics and models are also under the influence of trends within football. One of these trends is the use of set pieces to…

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls ⚽️📊📈

With this model and consequent metrics, we can capture the xSBR of long balls from the defensive third to enhance dominance higher up the pitch.

marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...

Happy new year to you too!

2026 innit.

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls Football metrics and models are also under the influence of trends within football. One of these trends is the use of set pieces to…

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls ⚽️📊📈

With this model and consequent metrics, we can capture the xSBR of long balls from the defensive third to enhance dominance higher up the pitch.

marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...