this screenshot says:
"Every year in England and Wales, a cynic1 might describe a process like this:
Around spring, the incumbent government / devolved government promises that they are working hard to fix NHS capacity before next winter.
In summer, the relevant NHS bodies warn that nothing meaningful is happening on the ground and/or everything’s much worse, and they are in no way ready for the winter.
Through October and November we watch nervously as ripples of seasonal respiratory infections (e.g., RSV, flu and now COVID) grow into waves. The NHS know what’s coming and try vaccinate as many of the old, young and vulnerable as possible.
As winter progresses, wards fill up with patients, so A&E is unable to admit patients to the hospital, so A&E fills up, so ambulances are unable to transfer patients safely to A&E, and queue at the front door, and are unable to respond to new calls. Patients suffering from heart attacks and strokes wait hours for help, and incur enormous harms - enough to show up in excess death indicators.
In late December or early January, the waves of RSV, flu and COVID peak. If they all are high and peak at the same time, you get the winter of 2022 - average response time to stroke/heart attack symptoms of 1 hour 32 minutes. If, by luck, the peaks of infection are lower, or offset, you get the winter of 2023 - average response time 45 minutes. The target response time is 18 minutes.
The waves recede in January and February, the NHS cares for the survivors and we bury the dead.
Go to 1.
"
It is however nuts that for literally the most predictable NHS crisis we still rely on the luck of the disease draw (and the weather) every winter.
@paulmainwood.bsky.social put it brilliantly a few weeks ago in his substack (which I recommend). 5/6
